Reframing International Climate Policy: Essays on Development Issues and Fragmented Regimes [Elektronische Ressource] / Michael Andreas Jakob. Betreuer: Ottmar Edenhofer

Michael Jakob

Informations

• Publié par: technische_universitat_berlin
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2011
• Nombre de lectures: 4
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

Reframing International Climate Policy:
Essays on Development Issues
and Fragmented Regime s


vorgelegt von
Michael Andreas Jakob


von der Fakultät VI – Planen Bauen Umwelt
der Technischen Universität Berlin

zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades

Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Dr. rer. oec.

genehmigte Dissertation





Promotionsausschuss:

Prof. Dr. Johann Köppel (Vorsitz)
Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer
Prof. Dr. Rolf Tschernig


Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 14.06.2011



Berlin 2011



D83


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Contents


Abstract 7
Zusammenfassung 9
1 Introduction 11
1.1 .Background: The Science, Economics, and Politic sC olifmate Change 11
1.1. 1.The Challenge of Climate Stabilization 11
1.1.2 .The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation 14
1.1.3 .The Challenge of International Cooperation 15
1.2 R.eframing International Climate Policy 16
1.2.1 .Energy Use, Carbon Emissions, and Economic Develoepmnt 17
1.2.2 .Fragmented Climate Policy Regimes 19
1.3 T.hesis Objective 20
1.4 .Thesis Outline 21
References 23

2 Economic Convergence and Convergence of Energy Uasett ePrns 29
2.1 I.ntroduction 33
2.2 E.conomic Convergence and Energy Transitions 34
2.3 D.ata and Method 36
2.4. Results 43
2.5 C.onclusions 52
References 54
Appendix 57

3 Carbonization and Decarbonization in China 61
3. 1I.ntroduction 65
3.2 L.iterature Review 66
3.3 C.hina’s Carbon Emissions in Retrospective 67
3.4 F.uture Options for Decarbonization 76
3.5 .Assessing China’s Energy and Climate Policies 83

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3.6 C.onclusions 86
References 87
Appendix 90

4 The Costs and Benefits of Early Action 93
4.1 .Introduction 97
4.2 .Research Design 98
4.2.1 .The Model Comparison Framework 98
4.2.2 .Benchmark Mitigation Costs 99
4.2.2.1 .The Reference Scenario 99
4.2.2.2 .The Benchmark Stabilization Scenario withi bFiullilty Flex 100
4.3 E.ffects of Delayed Participation 102
4.3.1 .Stabilization Scenarios with Limited Spatiamlp oranld FTlexibility 103
4.3.2. Impact of Delayed Action on Global Mitigation Costs 104
4.3.3. Impact of Delayed Action on the Regional Costi bDiusttiron 105
4.3.4. Decomposing Regional Mitigation Costs 108
4.3.5 .Understanding the Benefits of Early Action 110
4.4. Concluding Remarks 114
References 116

5 Linking of Emissions Trading Systems and Carbon aLgeea k 119
5. 1I.ntroduction 123
5.2 L.iterature Review 124
5.3 M.odel Definition and Country Specification 126
5.4 E.conomic Impacts of Linking 130
5.5 Ex.tension: The Case of Non-Traded Goods 137
5.6 C.onclusions 139
Appendix 141
References 149

6 Unilateral Climate Measures and Trade Policy 153
6. 1I.ntroduction 157
6.2 L.iterature Review 158

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6.3 T.he Model 159
6.4 O.ptimal Unilateral Policies 162
6.5 Ex.isting and Proposed Policies: Production vs. Cumonpstion-Based
Approach 165
6.5. 1.Production-Based Emission Policy 165
6.5.2 .Consumption-Based Emission Policy 168
6.6 C.omparison and Discussion of the Policy Measures 171
6.6.1 .Production vs. Consumption-Based Policies under IFnuflolrm ation 172
6.6.2 .Border Tax Adjustment Using the Best Availablneol oTgeyc hApproach 173
6.7 P.ractical Implications and Relevance 174
6.7. 1.Confronting the Model with Empirical Evidence 174
6.7.2 .Model Limitations and Caveats 175
6.8 S.ummary and Conclusions 176
References 178
Appendix 181

7 Synthesis and Outlook 187
7.1 .Economic Development, Energy Use, and Carbon Emisosnis 187
7.1. 1.Economic Convergence and Convergence of Energy PaUstete rns 187
7.1.2 .Carbonization and Decarbonization in China 188
7.2 F.ragmented Climate Policy Regimes 189
7.2.1 .The costs of delaying climate measures and o fb eenaerfliyt saction 189
7.2.2 .Linking Emissions Trading Systems and Carbon Lea kag 190
7.2.3 .Unilateral Climate Measures and Trade Policy 191
7.3 D.iscussion 192
7.4 .Outlook and Further Research 193
References 195

Statement of Contribution 197
Acknowledgements 199
Tools and Resources 201


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Abstract
The research presented in this thesis is hbea sehdy poothn etses that (a) one of the main
reasons why recent climate negotiations hav eto facihleideve significant progress is that
they have not paid sufficient attention tor ithies porfio developing countries, and that (b)
international climate policy will increasiongdluyc tbeed cwithin fragmented regimes in
which the spatial or temporal flexibility gtor ereendhuocusee gas emissions is constrained.
Our empirical estimates for a cross-section troife sc osunggest that leapfrogging to more
efficient and cleaner technologies in poors cdouenst rineot occur automatically and that
without binding commitments to reduce GHG emiss,i ocnosntinued economic growth can
be expected to bring energy consumption and ceamrbisosni ons in emerging and
developing countries close to levels prevaiindliunsgtr iianl ized countries.
For the case of China, we identify economica s grtohwet h dominant factor behind
increasing carbon emissions. Using an extende-dd eKcaoymaposition, we find that the
effect of economic growth exceeds the imp apcrotn ooufn ctehde shift to coal that has taken
place in China’s energy systems in 1971-2007 orbdye ro neof magnitude. Numerical model
results reaffirm China’s important role for al, gclosbt-aefficient mitigation effort and
underline the importance of lowering the caernbsionty ionft energy production to achieve
emissions reductions in China.
Comparing the results from three state-of-theli-maarte -cenergy-economy models
emphasizes the importance of spatial and temploeraxil biflity of mitigation efforts:
postponing a global climate agreement to 2020 raciouseld the costs of a 450ppm- oCnOly 2
target by at least about half; with a d eilta ym atyo b20e3c0ome infeasible to achieve. We
also show that for individual regions eacrlayn aicn tifoan ct reduce mitigation costs if the
effect of avoiding lock-in of carbon-intgeyn sivnfer aesnterurcture prevails over the higher
costs associated with the additional mitigdaetni obn orbnuer by early movers.
In the absence of a global climate agreeamle nct aarb ognl ombarket could emerge in a
bottom-up fashion by linking of emissions tryasdteimngs. sIn this scenario the occurrence
of carbon leakage actually depends on whiicehs airned usltirnked under a joint permit
market: a symmetric link from the EU to a styhsotuetm fwuill cap bears some negative
implications but can still increase welfgaarein si-f rtohm-et rade dominate. In the case of
asymmetric linking (i.e. when the respecti veg ooodust puatre imperfect substitutes)
leakage is prevented and may even become negative.
The occurrence of carbon leakage in a friamgamtee ntreedg icmel does not automatically
justify the use of trade measures, such axs baodrjduesrt metnts. We show that neither
production- nor consumption-based approaches of ouancticng for carbon emissions
constitute optimal policy instruments. Whether nsau mcptoion-based policy prevents or
reduces leakage depends on specific parames.te rE mvpiarliuceal data suggest that if the
EU or the US were to apply border tax adjust meimntpo rotns from China, carbon leakage
would in effect increase.

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8

Zusammenfassung
Die Untersuchungen dieser Dissertation stützen saiucfh die Hypothesen dass (a) die
unzureichende Berücksichtigung der Prioritätenn twviocn klEungsländern einer der
wesentlichen Gründe für das Stocken der d erKzleimiativgeernhandlungen darstellt und
dass (b) sich internationale Klimapolitik zu niemh mReanhdmen fragmentierter Regimes
mit eingeschränkter zeitlicher oder örtlicbhielri tätF lezxuir Vermeidung von
Treibhausgasemissionen abspielen wird.
Empirische Schätzungen an einem Länderquerschenigtet n lnahe, dass ein Übergang zu
effizienteren und saubereren Technologien noimcahtit scahu t stattfindet und dass ohne
bindende Verpflichtungen zur Emissionsminderung Aenignleich des Energieverbrauchs
und der CO-Emissionen in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenlän dedran s aNiveau der 2
Industrieländer aufgrund fortgesetzten Wirtschaacfhtsstwums zu erwarten ist.
Für China stellt sich das Wirtschaftswachsotummin iaelrse nder Faktor zur Erklärung des
Anstiegs der CO- Emissionen heraus. Anhand einer erweiterte-nDe kKaoymaposition 2
wird gezeigt, dass der Effekt des zwisch e2n0 0179 7s1t aurknd angestiegenen Anteils an
Kohle in Chinas Energieversorgung um eine Größneunogr dgeringer ist als der Einfluss
des Wirtschaftswachstums. Modellergebnisse beens tädtiige wichtige Rolle Chinas für
global kosteneffizienten Klimaschutz und ucntheersnt rediie Bedeutung einer weniger
karbonintensiven Energieproduktion, um Emissionsdmeinrungen in China zu erzielen.
Ein Vergleich dreie