BS, SFSS, MFSS
120 pages
English
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BS, SFSS, MFSS

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120 pages
English

Description

Agriculture and fisheries
Agricultural policy

Sujets

Informations

Publié par
Nombre de lectures 8
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 2 Mo

Exrait

ga
eurostat
SPEL system
Technical documentation (Rev. 1)
Vol. 2: BS, SFSS, MFSS eurostat
STATISTISCHES AMT DER EUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFTEN
STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
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tionsbedarf der Kommission und aller am European statistical system to meet the férentes politiques communautaires, la
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cessible data is made widely available, verfügbaren Daten zugänglich zu machen aux besoins de la Commission et de l'en­
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main categories of document: statistical kationen angeboten: Statistische Doku­
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portante quantité de données accessibles
The statistical document is aimed at spe­
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cialists and provides the most complete
Fachmann konzipiert und enthalten das s'orienter correctement dans cet ensem­
sets of data: reference data where the
ausführliche Datenmaterial: Bezugs­ ble, deux grandes catégories de docu­
methodology is well-established, stand­
daten, bei denen die Konzepte allgemein ments ont été créées: les documents
ardized, uniform and scientific. These
bekannt, standardisiert und wissenschaft­ statistiques et les publications.
data are presented in great detail. The
lich fundiert sind. Diese Daten werden in
statistical document is intended for ex­
einer sehr tiefen Gliederung dargeboten. Le document statistique s'adresse aux
perts who are capable of using their own
Die Statistischen Dokumente wenden spécialistes. Il fournit les données les plus
means to seek out what they require. The
sich an Fachleute, die in der Lage sind, complètes: données de référence où la
information is provided on paper and/or
selbständig die benötigten Daten aus der méthodologie est bien connue, standar­
on diskette, magnetic tape, CD-ROM. The
Fülle des dargebotenen Materials auszu­ disée, normalisée et scientifique. Ces
white cover sheet bears a stylized motif
wählen. Diese Daten sind in gedruckter données sont présentées à un niveau très
which distinguishes the statistical docu­
Form und/oder auf Diskette, Magnet­ détaillé. Le document statistique est des­
ment from other publications.
band, CD-ROM verfügbar. Statistische tiné aux experts capables de rechercher,
Dokumente unterscheiden sich auch par leurs propres moyens, les données
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public, such as educational circles or
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political and administrative decision­
ture blanche ornée d'un graphisme stylisé
makers. The information in these docu­
démarque le document statistique des Veröffentlichungen wenden sich an eine ments is selected, sorted and annotated
autres publications. ganz bestimmte Zielgruppe, wie zum to suit the target public. In this instance,
Beispiel an den Bildungsbereich oder an therefore, Eurostat works in an advisory
Entscheidungsträger in Politik und Ver­ Les publications proprement dites peu­capacity.
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abgestellte und kommentierte Informa­ well-defined, Eurostat provides the infor­ l'enseignement ou les décideurs politi­
tionen. Eurostat übernimmt hier also eine ques ou administratifs. Des informations mation required for an initial analysis,
Art Beraterrolle. sélectionnées, triées et commentées en such as yearbooks and periodicals which
contain data permitting more in-depth fonction de ce public lui sont apportées.
Für einen breiteren Benutzerkreis gibt studies. These publications are available Eurostat joue, dès lors, le rôle de conseil­
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Veröffentlichungen heraus. Diese enthal­
To help the user focus his research, ten statistische Ergebnisse für eine erste Dans le cas d'un public plus large, moins
Eurostat has created 'themes', i.e. subject Analyse sowie Hinweise auf weiteres défini, Eurostat procure des éléments
classifications. The statistical documents Datenmaterial für vertiefende Unter­ nécessaires à une première analyse, les
and publications are listed by series: e.g. suchungen. Diese Veröffentlichungen annuaires et les périodiques, dans les­
yearbooks, short-term trends or method­werden in gedruckter Form und in Daten­ quels figurent les renseignements adé­
ology in order to facilitate access to the banken angeboten, die in Menütechnik quats pour approfondir l'étude. Ces
statistical data. zugänglich sind. publications sont présentées sur papier
ou dans des banques de données de type
Y. Franchet
Um Benutzern die Datensuche zu erleich­ vidéotex.
Director-General
tern, hat Eurostat Themenkreise, d. h.
eine Untergliederung nach Sachgebieten, Pour aider l'utilisateur à s'orienter dans
ses recherches, Eurostat a créé les eingeführt. Daneben sind sowohl die
thèmes, c'est-à-dire une classification Statistischen Dokumente als auch die
par sujet. Les documents statistiques et Veröffentlichungen in bestimmte Reihen,
les publications sont répertoriés par wie zum Beispiel „Jahrbücher", „Kon­
junktur", „Methoden", untergliedert, um série — par exemple, annuaire, conjonc­
den Zugriff auf die statistischen Informa­ ture, méthodologie — afin de faciliter
tionen zu erleichtem. l'accès aux informations statistiques.
Y. Franchet Y. Franchet
Generaldirektor Directeur général SPEL system
Technical documentation (Rev. 1)
Vol. 2: BS, SFSS, MFSS
A. Zintl
H.-J. Greuel
January 1995
The concept of the SPEL system was developed at the Institut für Agrarpolitik, Marktforschung und
Wirtschaftssoziologie of the University of Bonn by W. Henrichsmeyer, W. Wolf and H.-J. Greuel.
Theme
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries
Series
Methods Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1995
ISBN 92-826-9771-1
ISBN 92-826-9769-X (Volumes 1+2)
© ECSC-EC-EAEC, Brussels · Luxembourg, 1995
Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged
Printed in Belgium
Gedruckt auf chlorfrei gebleichtem Papier
Printed on non-chlorine bleached paper
Imprimé sur papier blanchi sans chlore TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1. Overview of the documentation
1.2. Syntax conventions 8
2. COMPONENTS OF THE SPEL/EU-MODEL 9
3. IMPLEMENTATION 13
3.1. Users and operators
3.2. Theshell5
3.3. Initializing environment
3.4. Getting started
3.5. General program control7
4. BASE SYSTEM (BS)9
4.1. Data preparation 22
4.1.1.a format conversion
4.1.2. Optional data archiving4
4.1.3.l data selection
4.1.4. Data compilation5
4.2. Completion of time series
4.2.1.n by subjective estimation6
4.2.2.n by trend estimation
4.2.3.n taking into account the methodological dependencies 27
4.3. Base Model (BM)8
4.3.1. Consistency at Member State level and EU aggregation level 2
4.3.2. Optional aggregation of user-defined regions 3
5. SHORT-TERM FORECAST AND SIMULATION SYSTEM (SFSS) 41
5.1. Preparatory work 43
5.1.1. System proposals for exogenous variables
5.1.1.1. Extensions to steering file formats 50
5.1.2. Print lists of system proposals for experts' checking
5.2. Short-term Model6
5.2.1. Forecast and simulation7
5.2.2. Optional aggregation of user-defined regions (AGGREG ) 64
6. MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST AND SIMULATION SYSTEM (MFSS)5
6.1. Preparatory work 6
6.1.1. Calculation of trend-based shifts
6.1.2. Calibration of elasticities8
6.1.3. Editing of experts' proposals 79
6.2. Medium-term Model 80
6.2.1. Forecast and simulation6.2.1.1. PST files 90
6.2.2. Optional aggregation of user-defined regions (AGGREG ) 92
7. UTILITIES3
7.1. Maintenance of TAB files (DASERV)
7.2. Selection and conversion of IMP and SDA files (IMPSEL) 9
7.3. Pack/unpack IMP file (IMPPACK)4
7.4. Checking time series (TABUTL)
7.5. General estimation and evaluation program (EV) 9
7.6. SPEL data base output (DAOUT) 95
7.7. Link of the SPEL disks6
7.8. File list of the output disk7
7.9. CMS command level
8. EXPLOITATION 98
8.1. EXPLOIT program
10.INDEX 109 LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Work steps of the Base System component 11
Figure 1 a: Work steps of theSFSS components2
Figure 1 b: Work steps of the MFSS component 1
Figure 2: User and Operator level4
Figure 3: BS: Work steps and data flow 20
Figure 4: BASEMOD program flow chart 3
Figure 5: AGGREG program flow chart6
Figure 6: SFSS: Work steps and data flow 42
Figure 7: SFPROP program flow chart5
Figure 8: SFEXP program flow chart 51
Figure 9: SFS program flow chart8
Figure 10: MFSS: work steps and data flow 66
Figure 11: MFELAS program flow chart9
Figure 12: MFS program flow chart 82
Figure 13: EXPLOIT program flow chart 9LIST OF TABLES
Table 1a: Components of the SPEL/EU-Model (Base System) 9
Table 1b:s of thel (SFSS, MFSS) 10
Table 2: Technical realization of the BASEMOD Program 31
Technical realization of the SFS Program 59 Table 3:
Table 4 a: Technical realization of the MFS Program (supply) 84
Table 4 b: Technical realization of the MFS Program (demand)5 Technical documentation (Rev. 1), Vol. 2: BS, SFSS, MFSS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Overview of the documentation
The SPEL approach is characterized by mutual interaction between model-builders and statisticians
or policy-makers. There are different models to deal with different questions, e.g. the SPEL/EU-Model
for the agricultural sector of the EU Member States and the EU as a whole.
In general, the SPEL System offers a systematically structured data system to be used for
• checking the consistency of agricultural statistics,
• monitoring the present situation in the agricultural sector,
• ex-post analyses of sectoral developments, and
• forecasts and policy simulations of the effects of alternative policies from short-term and
medium-term viewpoints.
The set of statistical data is not taken as final but subjected to consistency checks and critical
investigations, which may lead to the jointly agreed revision of existing statistics and proposals for
amendments and conceptual changes for new statistics. It is not assumed, either, that policy-makers
are able to specify target variables before taking a closer look at the problems involved. Instead, the
fundamental idea is that target priorities emerge during the process of policy dialogue on trade-offs
between target variables.
The principal technical approach for the whole SPEL System is transparency and a flexible user
interface. Transparency means that each data element can be traced back to the basic data sources
and the underlying assumptions. The flexible user interface facilitates dialogue between policy­
makers and the model.
Some general features of the SPEL/EU-Model can be characterized by the items:
• activity-based concept: division of the agricultural sector into activities, in order to trace
production interactions;
• consistency accounting framework: to balance physical and monetary flows.
The technical documentation of the SPEL System consists of the following parts:
Basic information
SPEL System, Technical Documentation (Rev. 1), Vol. 1: Basics
This volume includes the documentation of all technical basics, as there are data dimensions,
file format conventions, utilities and multi-purpose programs without any model specific code.
This general software was developed by EuroCARE in cooperation with the Institut für
Agrarpolitik, University of Bonn, and is applied to other uses, too. Technical documentation (Rev. 1), Vol. 2: BS, SFSS, MFSS
Specific Information for the models of the SPEL System
SPEL System, Technical Documentation (Rev. 1), Vol. 2: BS, SFSS, MFSS
This volume describes the generation of the SPEL/EU components Base System (BS), Short-
term Forecast- and Simulation System (SFSS) and Medium-term Forecast and Simulation
System (MFSS) in terms of the underlying methodological ideas and technical basics.
The technical documentation is designed as a guide for operators and users familiar with the VM/CMS
system on an IBM or compatible main frame.
A knowledge of the basic information described in 'SPEL System, Technical Documentation (Rev. 1),
Vol. 1: Basics' will make it easier to follow and appraise the details of this volume.
For the methodological aspects; see the methodological documentation.
1.2. Syntax conventions
When describing parameters or options, the following syntax conventions are used:
• When there is a choice between two or more parameter values, the values will be separated by a
vertical bar ('|'). For example, the parameter that allows the amount of listed information for a
SPEL program to be set to 'FULL', 'ROUGH' and 'NONE' will appear as follows:
FULL | ROUGH | NONE
• Optional parameter definitions are given in brackets, and operands for which an appropriate
value must be substituted are given in italics. For example, if a user wants to define a selection of
table columns and rows and optionally the amount of listed information, this will appear as
follows:
COLUMNS = columns, ROWS = rows, [LSTLEVEL = FULL | ROUGH | NONE]
• However care must be taken not to actually enter the brackets and vertical bars that appear in
descriptions of parameters, since they are not part of the actual parameter definition.
In the screen dumps describing panel user interfaces, the following conventions are used:
• All user inputs are bold-printed, in this documentation they are only formal examples.
• When there is a choice between two or more cursor selections, the selectable items are also
bold-printed.