The impact of biotechnology on agriculture in the European Community to the year 2005

European Commission Directorate-General For Agriculture And Rural Development

Description

Agricultural and fisheries research

Sujets

• Primary sector of the economy
• Biotechnology
• Crop yield
• Economic forecasting
• Sciences et techniques

Informations

• Publié par: EUROPEAN-COMMISSION-DIRECTORATE-GENERAL-FOR-AGRICULTURE-AND-RURAL-DEVELOPMENT
• Nombre de lectures: 14
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

THE IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY ON AGRICULTURE
THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY TO THE YEAR 2005
<e&
COMMISSION
OF THE EUROPEAN
COMMUNITIES This document has been prepared for use within the Commission. It does not
necessarily represent the Commission's official position.
Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication.
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 1989
ISBN 92-825-8849-1
Catalogue number: CB-55-89-277-EN-C
© ECSC-EEC-EAEC, Brussels - Luxembourg, 1989
Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is
acknowledged.
Printed in Belgium Commission of the European Communities
THE IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY
ON AGRICULTURE IN THE
EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
TO THE YEAR 2005
(Study prepared for the Directorate General, for Agriculture)
Document This document has been prepared for use within the Commission. It does not
necessarily represent the Commission's official position.
Copyright ECSC-EEC-EAEC, Brussel - Luxembourg, 1989
Reproduction is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the
source is acknowledged. THE IMPACT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY
ON AGRICULTURE IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
TO THE YEAR 2005
PREPARED BY
THE BUREAU EUROPEEN DE RECHERCHES S.A.
IN FULFILMENT OF EC COMMISSION CONTRACT NO.P243
Brussels, November 1988 Table of contents
SUMMARY
1. Introduction 1
2. Objectives of the study
3. Methodology and approach 2
4. Results of the survey 6
Introduction
I. Plant production 11
II.t protection 26
III. Animal bio-technology applications 34
IV. Processing 43
5. Implications for EC production to the year 2005 4
a) Summary of effects on crop production 58
b)y ofs on livestock production9
c) Estimate of impact on ECn in 2005 60
6. Conclusions 69
Annex 1 List of biotechnology applications x 2 Round 1 Delphi questionnaire
Annex 3 Producere and results x 4d 1 Survey results
Annex 5 Round 2 Delphie
Annex Farm numbers and output
List of Tables
Table 1 : Average yields for major crops, EC-12,
1984-1986, (t/ha). Yield increase
1985:1973 and expected yield (per cent
per year) 49
Table 2 : Impact of biotechnology applications on major
cereals 50
Table 3 : Impact of biotechnology applications on sugar 51
Table 4 : Impact ofys on oilseed
crops2 11
Table 5 : Impact of biotechnology applications on beef
cattle 53
Table 6 : Impact ofys on
dairy products4
Table 7 : Impact of biotechnology applications on
pigs5
Table 8 : Impact ofys on
poultry6
Table 9 : Impact of biotechnology applications on
sheep 57 SUMMARY
This report contains the results and conclusions of a study
on the impact of biotechnology on EC agriculture commissioned by
Directorate-General VI of the Commission of the European
Communities. The study was undertaken by the Bureau Europeen de
Recherches using a Delphi survey technique which allowed for a
large number of institutions engaged in biotechnology research
and development to be contacted.
The study establishes likely commercial introduction dates for a
wide range of plant and livestock biotechnology applications.
The introduction dates range from the early 1990s for
technologies tested and on the point of commercialisation (e.g.
DNA/MAB probes for early disease diagnosis in plants or animals)
to the late 1990s for technologies where considerable basic
research is still required (e.g. incorporation of pest
combatting characteristics in plants).
On the assumption that EC price policies continue to ensure that
farm prices are reduced roughly in line with the rate of yield
increases it was found that for most technologies considered it
would take between 3-5 years for 10 per cent of producers to
adopt the technology. In 2005 it was expected that a high
proportion of output would be generated using some of these
technologies.
The technologies reviewed in this report have the potential to
increase yields, reduce losses and improve output quality. By
combining the estimates for yield increase with those obtained
for adoption rates the potential impact on production in 2005
was obtained. Depending on the technology considered the report
established a range of possible production increases in 2005 of
between 3-12 per cent. These increases would be in addition to
those generated by conventional plant and livestock breeding,
improved farm management and possibly a greater concentration of
production on better quality land. Improvements in output quality
would result from an improved ability to influence the
composition of plant and livestock output.
On the processing side it was found that for the most part the
technologies required for large scale utilisation of agricultural
raw materials are available and that wider commercial application
is dependent on economic rather than purely technical
considerations. In the forestry sector it is apparent that
cloning and micropropagation techniques will result in new
cultivars during the 1990s.
In conclusion it is noted that most of the technologies surveyed
would tend to favour northern producers but that there were also
potential benefits to producers in the southern half of the
Community. The technologies discussed have the potential to
provide considerable economic and environmental benefits to the
Community but as with any new technology there may well be risks
associated with their introduction.