IPTS/ESTO Studies on Reforms of Agriculture, Education and Social Systems within the Context of Enlargement and Demographic Change in the EU. Final Report June 2002

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European
Science and
Technology
Observatory
IPTS/ESTO Studies
on Reforms of Agriculture, Education and
Social Systems within the Context of En­
largement and Demographic Change in the
EU
Final Report
June 2002
ESTO Project team:
Braun, Anette; Krönert, Angelika; VDI-ZTC Future Technologies Consulting, Düsseldorf,
Germany
Coomans, Gery; ISMEA, France, Belgium
Gundlach, Erich; Kiel Institute of World Economics, Germany
Nielsen, Ernst Max; Vyhnanek, Roman; REC, Szentendre, Hungary
Rader, Michael; ETAS, Karlsruhe, Germany
Segrè, Andrea; University of Bologna, Italy
von Tunzelmann, Nick; SPRU, UK
rPTS Coordinator: Andries Brandsma, Seville, Spain
EUR 20248 EN European
Science and
Technology
Observatory
IPTS/ESTO Studies
on Reforms of Agriculture, Education and
Social Systems within the Context of En­
largement and Demographic Change in the
EU
Final Report
June 2002
ESTO Project team:
Braun, Anette; Krönert, Angelika; VDI-ZTC Future Technologies Consulting, Düsseldorf,
Germany
Coomans, Gery; ISMEA, France, Belgium
Gundlach, Erich; Kiel Institute of World Economics, Germany
Nielsen, Ernst Max; Vyhnanek, Roman; REC, Szentendre, Hungary
Rader, Michael; ETAS, Karlsruhe, Germany
Segrè, Andrea; University of Bologna, Italy
von Tunzelmann, Nick; SPRU, UK
IPTS Coordinator: Andries Brandsma, Seville, Spain
EUR 20248 EN Institute for
Prospective
Technological Studies
European Commission
Joint Research Centre (DG JRC)
Institute for Prospective Technological
Studies
http://www.irc.es
Legal notice
Neither the European Commission nor
any person acting on behalf of the Com­
mission is responsible for the use which
might be made of the following informa­
tion.
Report EUR 20248 EN
© European Communities, 2002
Reproduction is authorised provided the
source is acknowledged Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1
BACKGROUNDOFTHE REPORT3
INTRODUCTION6
PARTA:AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT 8
A.I.CAPISUNSUSTAINABLE ­ BOTH IN EUANDDMPACS10
A.I.I. Economic and Financial Impact10
A.I.2. Social impactIS
A.I.3. Environmental Impact 14
All. CARPE instead of CAP?19
PART B: HUMANCAPITALFORMATION:SOMEPERSPECTrVES FOR PRE-ACCESSION
COUNTRIES26
B.I. ASSESSINGTHESTOCKOFHUMAN CAPITAL IN PRE­ACCESSION COUNTRIES26
B.II. THEPRODUCTIVITYOFHUMANCAPITAL AFTER EU ACCESSION: THE CASE OF EASTGERMANY33
B.III. WORKERRETRAININGPROGRAMS AS SHORT RUN INVESTMENT IN HUMAN CAPITAL38
B.rv. SCHOOLINGASLONG­RUNINVESTMENT IN HUMAN CAPITAL 42
B.IV.lTheMissingResource-Performance Link in European Schooling42
B.W.2PoliciesforEffectiveSchooling: InstitutionsMatter.46
SELECTED CASESTUDIESONPRE­ACCESSION COUNTRIES53
B.V INTRODUCTIONτοTHECASESTUDIES53
B.VI EDUCATIONAL REFORMS54
77îe educational system before transition 54
B.VII NEW EDUCATIONALSYSTEMS­RESPONSIBILITIES ANDPROBLEMS57
Czech Republic57
Hungary58
Poland59
Conclusions60
Β .Vin ORGANISATIONOFTHEEDUCATIONALSYSTEM60
Czech Republic61
Hungary 63
Poland64
Slovakia66
Conclusions67
B.IXCONTENTANOCURRICULA68
CzechRepublic68
Hungary68
Poland69
Conclusions 69
B.XHowτοMEASURE THE OUTPUT OF EDUCATION SYSTEMS? 69
CzechRepublic71
Hungary71
Poland71
Conclusions71
B.XI THE TEACHING FORCE AND ITS FUTUREDEVELOPMENT72
Czech Republic72
Hungary 73
Poland73
Conclusions74
B.XIISPECIALARRANGEMENTS CONCERNING EDUCATION FOR USE OF ICTS AND BY ICTs74
Technicalequipment75
B.XIIIEXAMPLES75
TheSlovakINFOVEKproject75Sponsoring in the Slovak Republic 76
Information Policy in Education in the Czech Republic 77
PART C: SOCIAL SYSTEMS 79
C.I PENSIONS
C.2 UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION 80
C.3 HEALTHCARE1
C.4 CONSUMER PROTECTION
C.5 MIGRATION2
C.6 GENDER POLICIES
C.7 SOCIAL RELATIONS
C.8 COUNTRY STUDIES3
C.8.1 Hungary 83
C.8.2 Poland 84
C.8.3 Romania 85
C.9 OUTLOOK 86
PART D: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN EU-PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES : THE CHALLENGES OF
AN ENLARGED EU (GERY COOMANS)8
D.l GLOBAL POPULATION PROSPECTS 90
D.l.l Past trends and projections 90
D.I.I Main demographic indicators 94
D.I.2 Regional dimension 101
D.I.3 Household composition 102
D.2 THE TRIPLE AGING 103
D.2.1 Global aging: 65+ J'totalpopulation Figure 20: 103
D.2.2 Elder aging : 80+ 106
D.2.3 Working age aging: 50-64 /15-64 70S
D.3 DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT AND LABOR SUPPLY 112
D.3.1 Demographic effects on the labor supply 112
D.3.2 Employment growth scenarios vs labor supply 113
D.3.3 Linh with sectoral shifts 117
D.4 EDUCATIONAL LEVELS AND LABOR SUPPLY8
D.4.1 Educational levels (ISCED into Low, Medium and High) 118
D.4.2 The gender catching up ¡27
D.4.3 levels andemployability ¡29
D.4.4 Age shift, educational shift and labor supply ¡30
D.5 MAIN POLICY IMPLICATIONS 135
E. CONCLUSION
REFERENCES: 141
FURTHER READENG4 Background of the Report
In the context of the "Futures" Project on the techno-economic and societal impact of Enlargement,
the IPTS launched a new foresight project involving high level representatives from the Candidate
Countries. The aim of this project is to identify through prospective methods the main contemporary
challenges for pre-accession countries and discuss their consequences for three policy areas: Sci­
ence/Technology, Competitiveness and Employment. An expert panel has been set up to work with
IPTS on each of these clusters. The issues raised by the experts and the results of the Steering Group
and panel meetings (Tallinn, September 2000; Brussels, January 2001; Seville, May 2001; and Pra­
gue, September 2001) have been the core input for this ESTO1 project.
This ESTO project, of which preliminary results were presented to the Forum Bled (Slovenia) in
early December 2001, deepens the analysis of the interconnections between technological and socio­
economic developments in three areas: agriculture and rural development, human capital formation
and social systems. Although the European Union's influence on agriculture at present is more topi­
cal than on education and social security, both in terms of budget and impact on Member States'
policies, issues of centralisation, autonomy and coverage are likely to become the subject of reflec­
tion and debate in an enlarged Union in all three areas:
• Proposals to shift the Common Agricultural Policy from financial support based on production
towards farm support for the sake of rural development should consider whether such support is
better generated and provided at the national level than distributed through the Community.
• The governance of education is very much matter a matter for the Member States, but within
each country there is continuous tension about the degree of autonomy that should be given to
schools and teachers on curricula, textbooks and budgetary decisions. There is also a debate on
the public or private provision of education. These questions need to be lifted to the European
level for two reasons: the aim of increasing the mobility of students and the gains in efficiency
and performance that can be obtained from a comparison of national education systems and re­
sults.
• Two cmcial questions on social security are to what extent its provision should be considered as
a right for the inhabitants of a country based on tax payments and to what extent social benefits
can be restricted to those who have made earmarked contributions during a certain number of
years. Such questions have been thoroughly analysed in a long term perspective for pension
systerns but are equally relevant to social insurance for sickness and unemployment. Strongly
related are the equal rights of men and women and family issues. A review of social systems in
the EU and the candidate countries would be highly relevant for mobility and migration policies
in an enlarged Union.
Rather than attempting to give full answers to these questions, this report presents information on
where the candidate countries stand in comparison to the EU-15. Where the issues are controversial,
the different parts of the study present the points of view and provide some reflection on the argu­
ments. Material from international organisations such as the OECD and the World Bank and from
non-governmental organisations is taken into account.
1 European Science and Technology Observatory. Not all Candidate Countries are covered extensively in every part of the study. Instead it focuses on
a number of cases that highlight the differences between the countries, if possible including at least
Poland and Romania, the two Candidate Countries with the largest population sizes. Where avail­
able, statistical material and examples from the Candidate Countries have been used in the study
and, where relevant, comparisons with the experiences of EU member states, and with the cohesion
countries in particular, have been included.
The future of agriculture is a big issue for Enlargement, given that the pre-accession countries have
large agricul