La lecture à portée de main
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Informations
Publié par | rheinische_friedrich-wilhelms-universitat_bonn |
Publié le | 01 janvier 2009 |
Nombre de lectures | 25 |
Langue | English |
Poids de l'ouvrage | 1 Mo |
Extrait
Wage Setting over the Business Cycle and the Effect of
Employment Protection on Human Capital Formation
Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doktors
der Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftswissenschaften
durch die
Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät
der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität
Bonn
vorgelegt von
Marcus Sonntag
aus Frankfurt am Main
Bonn 2009Dekan: Prof. Dr. Christian Hillgruber
Erstreferent: Prof. Monika Merz, PhD
Zweitreferent: Prof. Dr. Christian Bayer
Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 15. Juni 2009
Diese Dissertation ist auf dem Hochschulschriftenserver der ULB Bonn
(http://hss.ulb.uni-bonn.de/diss_online) elektronisch publiziert.Acknowledgments
I am grateful to my advisor Monika Merz for her support throughout this dissertation.
She has been a very engaged and competent teacher and conversation partner and has
given me advise on many issues. I am also very grateful to my coauthors Christian Haefke
and Thijs van Rens. They have accompanied me in my first steps doing research, and
have given me a lot of valuable hints. Discussing research topics with them was very
motivating and inspiring. I would like to express my acknowledgements to my teachers
at the University of Bonn and at the University Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, especially
Michael Reiter and Albert Marcet.
I am grateful to Christian Bayer and to Jörg Breitung for taking part in my thesis
committee.
I want to thank my fellow students with whom I could discuss my research, Matthias
Parey, Felix Hammermann, Tim Mennel and Robert Zymek. Thanks address also Harald
Uhlig for hosting me as a researcher at Humboldt-University during some months.
I am also grateful to the Cusanuswerk for financial and non-material support, also to
the BGSE and the DAAD for financial assistance.
I am indebted to my friends who have supported me during my time in Bonn, espe-
ciallyPaulNoll,AnnaSchriefl,DanielSchuler,SvenSchümmer,JörnLüdemann,Matthias
Wibral, Kerstin Neumann and Stefan Mihalache. I am grateful to my parents who have
supported my in many ways during the time of my studies and lent helping hands, espe-
cially in the many moves I had to make.Contents
List of Figures iii
List of Tables v
Introduction 1
Basic Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Chapter Summaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1 Wage Rigidity and Job Creation 9
1.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.1.1 Individual-level data from the CPS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.1.2 Construction of the wage index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.1.3 Volatility of wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
1.2 Response of wages to productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.2.1 Estimation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
1.2.2 Newly hired workers out of non-employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
1.2.3 Job-to-job changers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
1.2.4 Great moderation and pre-1984 wage rigidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.3 Implications for job creation and unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
1.3.1 Job creation in a frictional labor market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.3.2 Flexible wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.3.3 Rigid wages in ongoing jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
1.3.4 The unemployment volatility puzzle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
1.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Appendix1.A Description of the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1.A.1 Wages from the CPS outgoing rotation groups . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1.A.2 Identifying newly hired workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Appendix1.B Correcting business cycle statistics for sampling error . . . . . . 40
Appendix1.C Model details from Section 1.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
1.C.1 Derivation of the job creation equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
iii
1.C.2 Derivation of the wage equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
1.C.3 Numerical solution and simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Appendix1.D Additional tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2 Employment Protection over the Workers’ Life Cycles 51
2.1 Related literature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
2.2 The model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.2.1 Firms and workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.2.2 Skill depreciation, skill investment, and layoffs . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
2.2.3 Time schedule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.2.4 Value functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
2.2.5 Aggregation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.2.6 Wage setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
2.2.7 The human capital production function and the cost of training . . 65
2.2.8 Functional forms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
2.2.9 Forces at work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
2.3 Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.3.1 Calibration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
2.4 Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
2.5 Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
N min N minAppendix2.A Proof that minfJ ;J g>¡¿ +S)w >w . . . . . . . 83
Appendix2.B Solving the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Appendix2.C Additional figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
3 Employment Protection and Training Incidence 93
3.1 Professional training in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
3.2 Regression analysis difference-in-differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.2.1 Data from the Qualification-and-Career Survey . . . . . . . . . . . 103
3.2.2 Econometric methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
3.2.3 Regression results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
3.3 Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Appendix3.A Additional tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Concluding Remarks 113
Bibliography 115List of Figures
1.1 Fraction of new hires among employed workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.2 Characteristics of all and newly hired workers over time . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.3 Wage cyclicality for different worker groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1 Calibration: nonemployment rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
2.2 average wage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
2.3 Average job value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
2.4 Job finding probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.5 Average layoffy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
2.6 Human capital investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.7 Average human capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
2.8 Average wage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
2.9 Nonemployment rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
2.10 Evolution of the wage distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2.11 Policy functions: wage setting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
2.12 Policy investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.1 Participation in training measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
3.2 Composition by age and gender . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
3.3 Age and gender, only full-time workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
3.4 Composition by gender and education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.5 Motivation for professional training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
3.6 Financial support from employer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
3.7 Who pays for on-the-job training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
3.8 Training takes place during working time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
iiiiv