The economic and financial situation in Portugal
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ISSN 0379-0991 I I I Ü EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS REPORTS AND STUDIES THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SITUATION IN PORTUGAL PORTUGAL IN THE TRANSITION TO EMU Nol 1997 European Economy appears twice a year. It contains important reports and communications from the Commission to the Council and the Parliament on the economic situation and developments. As a complement to European Economy, the series Reports and studies will be published on problems concerning economic policy. Three supplements accompany the main periodical: • Series A—'Economic trends' appears monthly except in August and describes in a more succinct way financial and economic developments in the European Union. • Series Β—'Business and consumer survey results' gives the main results of opinion surveys of chief executives (orders, stocks, production outlook, etc.) and of consumers (economic and financial situation and, etc.) in the Community, and other business cycle indicators. It also appears monthly, with the exception of August. • Series C—'Economic reform monitor' provides brief overviews of economic developments and the progress of reform in the 10 countries of Central Europe with which the EU has negotiated association agreements, as well as in the two largest transitional economies to have emerged from the former Soviet Union: Russia and Ukraine. It appears four times a year.

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Publié par
Nombre de lectures 36
Langue English
Poids de l'ouvrage 32 Mo

Extrait

ISSN 0379-0991
I I I
Ü
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS
REPORTS AND STUDIES
THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL
SITUATION IN PORTUGAL
PORTUGAL IN THE TRANSITION TO EMU
Nol 1997 European Economy appears twice a year. It contains important reports
and communications from the Commission to the Council and the
Parliament on the economic situation and developments. As a
complement to European Economy, the series Reports and studies will be
published on problems concerning economic policy.
Three supplements accompany the main periodical:
• Series A—'Economic trends' appears monthly except in August and
describes in a more succinct way financial and economic developments
in the European Union.
• Series Β—'Business and consumer survey results' gives the main
results of opinion surveys of chief executives (orders, stocks,
production outlook, etc.) and of consumers (economic and financial
situation and, etc.) in the Community, and other business cycle
indicators. It also appears monthly, with the exception of August.
• Series C—'Economic reform monitor' provides brief overviews of
economic developments and the progress of reform in the 10 countries
of Central Europe with which the EU has negotiated association
agreements, as well as in the two largest transitional economies to have
emerged from the former Soviet Union: Russia and Ukraine. It appears
four times a year.
Subscription terms are shown on the back and the addresses of the sales
offices are shown on page 3 of the cover.
Unless otherwise indicated the texts are published under the
responsibility of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial
Affairs of the European Commission, rue de la Loi 200, B-1049 Brussels,
to which enquiries other than those related to sales and subscriptions
should be addressed. European Commission
EUROPEAN
ECONOMY
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
1997 Number 1 © European Communities, 1997
Printed in Belgium The economic and financial
situation in Portugal
Portugal in the transition
to EMU
This study was prepared under the responsibility of the Directorate-General for Economic and
Financial Affairs, and was discussed by the Economic Policy Committee in February 1997. Abbreviations and symbols used
Member States
Β Belgium
DK Denmark
D Germany
WD West Germany
EL Greece
E Spain
F France
IRL Ireland
I Italy
L Luxembourg
NL The Netherlands
Austria A
Portugal Ρ
FIN Finland
S Sweden
UK United Kingdom
European Community excluding Greece, Spain and Portugal EUR 9
EUR 10 European Community excluding Spain and Portugal
EUR 12-n Community, 12 Member States including West Germany
EUR12+ European, 12r Statesg Germany
EUR 15+ n Community, 15 Member States includingy
Currencies
ECU European currency unit
BEF Belgian franc
DKK Danish krone
DEM German mark (Deutschmark)
GRD Greek drachma
ESP Spanish peseta
FRF French franc
IEP Irish pound (punt)
ITL Italian lira
LUF Luxembourg franc
NLG Dutch guilder
ATS Austrian schilling
PTE Portuguese escudo
FIM Finnish markka
SEK Swedish krona
GBP Pound sterling
USD US dollar
CHF Swiss franc
JPY Japanese yen
CAD Canadian dollar
SUR Russian rouble Other abbreviations
ACP African, Caribbean and Pacific countries having signed the Lomé Convention
ECSC European Coal and Steel Community
EDFn Development Fund
EIBn Investment Bank
EMCF European Monetary Cooperation Fund
EMSny System
ERDFn Regional Development Fund
Euratom European Atomic Energy Community
Eurostat Statistical Office of the European Communities
GDP (GNP) Gross domestic (national) product
GFCF Gross fixed capital formation
LDCs Less-developed countries
Mio Million
Mrd 1 000 million
NCI New Community Instrument
OCTs Overseas countries and territories
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
OPECn of Petroleum Exporting Countries
PPS Purchasing power standard
SMEs Small and medium-sized enterprises
toe Tonne of oil equivalent
: Not available Contents
Introduction and executive summary 1
Part I: The Portuguese economy in the 1990s 9
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic performance 11
1.1. Output and productivity
1.2. Aggregate demand7
1.3. Catching-up and the current account 26
Chapter 2: Prices and wages 29
2.1. Marked decline in inflation in the 1990s
2.2. Sectoral inflation 30
2.3. Wage developments and prospects for sustained low inflation 33
Chapter 3: Employment and unemployment6
3.1. Labour market trends
3.2. Employment
3.3. Unemployment 43
Box: Unemployment in Portugal versus Spain 51
Part II: Main elements of economic policy5
Chapter 1: Macroeconomic policy 57
1.1. Introduction
1.2. Monetary and exchange rate policy8
1.3. Fiscal policy 66 Chapter 2: Structural reform 75
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Privatization
2.3. The reform of the financial sector8
2.4. Other structural reforms 84
Annex 1: Monetary and exchange rate policy9
1. Exchange rate policy
1.1. From a crawling peg to a managed float: the problem of capital inflows 8
1.2. ERM entry: reducing the cost of disinflation 91
1.3. The first devaluation: too many systemic difficulties3
1.4. The second: not enough domestic adjustment4
1.5. The widening of the bands: the failure of international coordination 95
1.6. The third devaluation: turbulence in thel exchange markets6
2. The modernization of monetary policy instruments 97
2.1. Dismantling the old policy framework
2.2. The system of indirect monetary control8
2.3. Independence of the Central Bank 101
Annex 2: The financial services sector3
1. The banking industry
Box: The Madeira offshore centre 11
2. The insurance industry2
3. The securities markets6
3.1. Rapid expansion of the securities markets
3.2. Reform of the securities exchanges 121
Annex 3: The contribution from the Union's structural assistance 125
1. The Union's structural assistance
Box 1: The Structural Funds7
Box 2: The Cohesion Fund

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