OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2017

OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2017

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144 pages

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After a good performance until 2016, growth slowed in the first half of 2017. The unemployment rate has fallen to below 4.5%, but real wages are in a downward trend. Planned Brexit has raised uncertainty and dented business investment. Negotiating the closest possible EU-UK economic relationship would limit the cost of exit. The authorities should allow automatic stabilisers to work and identify in advance productivity-enhancing fiscal initiatives on investment, to be implemented rapidly were growth to weaken significantly in the run-up to Brexit, while safeguarding fiscal sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages should boost the productivity of lagging regions and cities, which requires local transport investments to foster connectivity, spending on research and development to raise innovation, housing investments to ease the matching of skills to jobs, and greater educational attainment and training tailored to business needs. Enhancing teachers’ training and other incentives, in particular in disadvantaged schools, would address teacher shortages and improve skills. Low-skilled workers participate less in lifelong learning and introducing targeted re-training programmes would boost competencies more broadly. Tax and regulatory reforms of non-standard forms of employment would offset workers’ weaker bargaining power and ensure better job quality.

SPECIAL FEATURES: REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY; PRODUCTIVITY OF LOW-SKILLED WORKERS


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Date de parution 17 octobre 2017
Nombre de visites sur la page 1
EAN13 9789264283015
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Langue English

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OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2017
Please cite this publication as: OECD(2017),OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom 2017, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-gbr-2017-en.
Metadata, Legal and Rights
ISBN:978-92-64-28301-5 (epub) - 978-92-64-28299-5 (print) - 978-92-64-28300-8 (pdf) DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_surveys-gbr-2017-en
Series:OECD Economic Surveys ISSN:0376-6438 (print) - 1609-7513 (online)
OECD Economic Surveys: United Kingdom ISSN:1995-3445 (print) - 1999-0502 (online)
This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
This Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries.
The economic situation and policies of the United Kingdom were reviewed by the Committee on 21 September 2017. The draft report was then revised in the light of the discussions and given final approval as the agreed report of the whole Committee on 3 October 2017.
The Secretariat’s draft report was prepared for the Committee by Rafał Kierzenkowski, Mark Baker, Peter Gal and Sanne Zwart, under the supervision of Pierre Beynet. The Survey also benefited from contributions from Jagoda Egeland. Research assistance was provided by Gabor Fulop. Elisabetta Pilati formatted and produced the layout of the document.
The previous Survey of the United Kingdom was issued in February 2015.
Photo credits: Cover © P. Vzunova/Shutterstock.com. Corrigenda to OECD publications may www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.
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BASIC STATISTICS OF UNITED KINGDOM, 2016 1 (Numbers in parentheses refer to the OECD average) LAND, PEOPLE AND ELECTORALCYCLE Population (million) 65.0 Population density per km2 Life expectancy (years, 2015)17.6 (17.9) Under 15 (%) 18.2 (16.6)Over 65 (%) Men 13.1Foreign-born (%, 2015) Women Latest 5-year average growth (%) 0.8 (0.6) Latest general election ECONOMY Gross domestic product (GDP) Value added shares (%) In current prices (billion USD) 2Primary sector 618.9 In current prices (billion GBP) 1Industry including construction 961.1 Latest 5-year average real growth (%) 2.1 (1.8)Services 42.7 (42.0)Per capita (000 USD PPP) GENERALGOVERNMENT Per cent of GDP Expenditure 41.9 (41.6) Gross financial debt Revenue 38.7 (38.7) Net financial debt EXTERNALACCOUNTS Exchange rate (GBP per USD) 0.738 Main exports (% of total merchandise exports) PPP exchange rate (USA = 1) 0.694Machinery and transport equipment In per cent of GDPChemicals and related products, n.e.s. Exports of goods and services 27.9 (53.9)Miscellaneous manufactured articles Main imports (% of total30.1 (49.5) Imports of goods and services merchandise imports) Current account balance -5.6 (0.2)Machinery and transport equipment -22.5Net international investment position Miscellaneous manufactured (2014) articles
Chemicals and related products, n.e.s. LABOURMARKET,SKILLSANDINNOVATION Employment rate for 15-64 year-olds (%) 73.5 (66.9) Unemployment rate, Labour Force Survey (age 15 and over) (%) (74.7)Men 78.3 Youth (age 15-24, %) Women 68.8 (59.3)Long-term unemployed (1 year and over, %)
269.6 (37.2) 81.0 (80.5) 79.2 (77.9) 82.8 (83.1) June 2017
0.6
19.2
80.2
(2.5)
(26.6)
(70.9)
121.9 (108.5) 91.8 (69.9)
39.2
16.6
13.9
35.9
15.0
11.2
4.8
13.0 1.3
(6.3)
(13.0) (2.0)
Participation rate for 15-64 year-olds (%)
Average hours worked per year
Total primary energy supply per capita (toe, 2015)
Renewables (%, 2015) Exposure to air pollution (more than 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5, % of population, 2015)
Income inequality (Gini coefficient, 2015)
Relative poverty rate (%, 2015) Median disposable household income (000 USD PPP, 2015) Public and private spending (% of GDP) Health care
Pensions (2013)
78.2 (71.7) Tertiary educational attainment 25-64 year-olds (%) 1 676 (1 763) Gross domestic expenditure on R&D (% of GDP, 2015) ENVIRONMENT 2.8 (4.1) CO2 emissions from fuel combustion per capita (tonnes, 2014) 7.7 (9.6) 65.6 (75.2) Municipal waste per capita (tonnes, 2015) SOCIETY 0.360 (0.311) Education outcomes (PISA score, 2015) 10.9 (11.3)Reading 22.1 (22.9)Mathematics
9.7 7.3
(9.0) (9.1)
46.0
1.7
6.4
0.5
498 492
Science 509 Share of women in parliament (%) 29.6 Net official development 0.70 assistance (% of GNI)
(35.7)
(2.4)
(9.4)
(0.5)
(493) (490)
(493) (28.7) (0.39)
Education (primary, secondary, post sec. 4.8 (3.7) non tertiary, 2014) 1 . Where the OECD aggregate is not provided in the source database, a simple OECD average of latest available data is calculated where data exist for at least 29 member countries. Source:Calculations based on data extracted from the databases of the following organisations: OECD, International Energy Agency, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Inter-Parliamentary Union.
Securing higher living standards requires a revival in labour productivity Reducing regional discrepancies to support aggregate productivity growth Raising competencies of low-skilled workers to make the economy more productive and inclusive
Executive summary
Securing higher living standards requires a revival in labour productivity
Labour productivity has stalled Real GDP per hour worked, in constant 2010 USD PPP
Source:OECD (2017), “GDP per capita and productivity levels”,OECD Productivity Statistics (database), September. StatLinkhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933600581
After a good performance until 2016, growth slowed in the first half of 2017. The unemployment rate has fallen to below 4.5%, but real wages are in a downward trend. Reviving labour productivity growth is key to ensuring higher living standards. Planned departure from the European Union (Brexit) has raised uncertainty and dented business investment, compounding the productivity challenge. Negotiating the closest possible EU-UK economic relationship would limit the cost of exit. The authorities should allow automatic stabilisers to work and identify in advance productivity-enhancing fiscal initiatives on investment, to be implemented rapidly were growth to weaken significantly in the run-up to Brexit, while safeguarding fiscal sustainability. A tax and spending review would enlarge fiscal space for further productive measures.
Reducing regional discrepancies to support aggregate productivity growth
Regional disparities in productivity are high Nominal GVA per hour worked, in GBP
Source:ONS (2017), “Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: Jan 2017”, Office for National Statistics, January. StatLinkhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933600600
Regional labour productivity is weak outside Greater London and South East England. Policy packages building on existing strengths of lagging regions, and possibly developing new ones, should foster local and regional transport infrastructure, research and development, housing and skills. This would increase the economic benefits from national infrastructure projects. Sustaining high integration in global value chains would bolster goods-oriented regions. Services-oriented regions would benefit from services trade liberalisation and more integrated cities. Devolution should continue to better tailor policies to local needs and more co-ordination in transport plans across city-regions would help creating larger economic hubs.
Raising competencies of low-skilled workers to make the economy more productive and inclusive
Regional productivity and education are linked 1 Quarters of regions by productivity levels, 2014
1. Quarters are calculated as un-weighted averages. Source:OECD (2017),OECD Regional Statistics; and ONS (2017), “Regional and sub-regional productivity in the UK: Jan 2017”, Office for National Statistics. StatLinkhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933600619
Over a quarter of workers in the United Kingdom have only low skills, which holds back labour productivity and job quality. Raising skills is a priority given plans to reduce net migration. The government has started to simplify vocational education and training and to raise the number of apprenticeships financed with a levy on large businesses. Enhancing teachers’ training and other incentives, in particular in disadvantaged schools, would address teacher shortages. Low-skilled workers participate less in lifelong learning and introducing targeted re-training programmes would boost competencies more broadly. Tax and regulatory reforms of non-standard forms of employment would offset workers’ weaker bargaining power and ensure better job quality.