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Managing Risk

De
256 pages
Written by a group of academics and practitioners, this guide is for construction practitioners having to manage real projects. It shows how the risk management process improves decision making in conditions of uncertainty.

This new edition includes the input of the Turnbull report, as well as to introduce the concept of corporate, strategic business, and project level risk.

The authors cover:

  • a description of risk management and decision making in the context of a construction project
  • the human dimension
  • tools and techniques available to the risk analyst
  • the problems of procurement and finance
  • the practical application of risk analysis, including the principles of risk modelling and simulation, together wit case studies

A thorough understanding of these concepts will provide the project manager with the basis for effective decision making.

From the reviews of the first edition:

"This book should be compulsory reading for all concerned with the management of risk in construction – whether academics or practitioners."
Chartered Surveyor Monthly

"A valuable addition to the literature ... which helps condense, simplify and provide practical advice on how to implement risk management on construction projects."

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Contents
Preface Authors Biographies Acknowledgements 1Projects and Risk 1.1 Construction projects 1.2 Decision making 1.3 Risk management strategy 1.4 Projectplanning 1.5 Summary 2 The Project Environment 2.1 Projects 2.2 The project constitution 2.3 Projectorganisation 2.4 Projectphases 2.5 Effectof projectphase on risk 2.6 Projectappraisal 2.7 Summary
3
4
Understanding the Human Aspects 3.1 Risk management– people 3.2 Risk management– organisations 3.3 The risk managementprocess 3.4 Some guidelines to the risk management process 3.5 The risk workshop 3.6 Communication 3.7 Summary Risk and Value Management 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Approaches to the management of risk
ix x xii 1 1 2 5 6 7 9 9 11 13 15 18 20 22 24 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 36 36 37
v
vi
Contents
5
6
7
4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9
The standard risk management model Applying risk and value management Value management processes Understanding the project risk Applying value and risk management Iteration of the process Summary
Qualitative Methods and Soft Systems Methodology 5.1 Qualitative risk assessment 5.2 Review of project programmes and budgets 5.3 The risk log 5.4 Using a risk log to formulate risk management strategy 5.5 Qualitative methods 5.6 Soft systems methodology 5.7 Case study: SSM in the use of the placement of construction projects 5.8 Summary
Quantitative Methods for Risk Analysis 6.1 Sanction 6.2 Project appraisal and selection 6.3 Project evaluation 6.4 Engineering risks 6.5 Risk management 6.6 Probabilistic analysis 6.7 Response to risks 6.8 Successful risk management 6.9 Principles of contingency fund estimation
The Contribution of Information Technology to Risk Modelling and Simulation 7.1 Purpose of RMS 7.2 When to use RMS 7.3 Requirements of the analyst 7.4 Modelling and simulation 7.5 Modelling using RMS 7.6 Data management 7.7 Analytical mechanisms 7.8 Classification of RMS 7.9 Selection of RMS
40 41 43 44 52 54 55
57 57 57 60 62 64 66
68 77
78 78 79 82 84 87 89 92 93 94
102 103 103 105 105 107 108 108 110 111
8
9
10
7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 7.15 7.16 7.17
Modelling a projectfor risk management Data requirements for realistic modelling Choice of variable distribution Case study Case study simulations Analysis of the result Discussion of findings Summary
Contents
Risk Allocation in the Contracting and Procurement Cycle 8.1 Typical contracting and procurement processes 8.2 Value planning case study 8.3 Known and unknown risks in contracts 8.4 Risk allocation strategies 8.5 Risk allocation according to payment mechanism 8.6 Contract award 8.7 Summary
Managing Financial Risks in Major Construction and PFI Projects 9.1 Projectfinancing 9.2 Types of finance 9.3 Appraisal and validity of financing projects 9.4 Typical financial risks 9.5 Promoter 9.6 Financial risk in concession contracts 9.7 Global and elemental risks in concession contracts 9.8 Summary
Risk Management at Corporate, Strategic Business and Project Levels 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Risk management188 10.3 The risk managementprocess 10.4 Benefits of risk management 10.5 Recognising risks 10.6 Why risk managementis used 10.7 Model for risk management at corporate, strategic business and projectlevels 10.8 Summary
vii
113 115 117 118 125 128 134 134
136 136 140 142 145 156 160 163
164 164 166 171 174 176 177 180 186
187 187
189 191 191 193
194 200
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Contents
11
12
Index
Case Studies 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Case study – cruise ship design and fabrication programme risk assessment203 11.3 Risk identification 11.4 The Channel Tunnel Rail Link (CTRL) 11.5 Brief history of the CTRL 11.6 The risk managementprocess 11.7 Risk assessment, analysis and response 11.8 Summary of the preliminary schedule risk analysis results
Guidance in Practical Risk Management 12.1 Decision making 12.2 Preparation for risk management 12.3 Risk identification 12.4 Risk analysis 12.5 Risk outputs 12.6 Models 12.7 Communication 12.8 Summary
202 202
204 208 209 212 219
225
229 229 230 232 232 233 237 238 238
240