Niveau: Supérieur, Doctorat, Bac+8
Has the ECB Been Wrong? A Lesson from Counterfactual Simulations. ? Jerome Hericourt† March 2004 Abstract How did European Central Bank (ECB) fit the disparate macroeconomic needs of euro zone members? The purpose of this paper consists in providing quantitative answers to this question presenting an original methodology. Using homogeneous frameworks of monetary transmission mechanisms, we simulate the national evolutions of GDP growth and inflation since 1999, in a fictitious context where the euro was never launched. These simulations are then compared with the actual outcomes over the period 1999-2002. Our major result is that the ECB did a far better stabilisation job for euro zone countries than national central banks would have done. JEL classification: E52, E58, F47 Keywords: Taylor rules, monetary policy transmission, alternative worlds, simulation, stabil- isation ?I thank Christian de Boissieu, Hubert Kempf, Philippe Martin, Peter Hansen and Therese Chevallier-Farat for many useful suggestions. †TEAM, Universite de Paris I Pantheon Sorbonne, 106-112 Bd de l'hopital, 75647 Paris CEDEX 13, France. Tel/Fax: (33) 1 44 07 82 71, Email:
- looking framework
- monetary policy
- macroeconomics used
- off between
- forward-looking models
- framework based
- national central
- general macroeconomic