The Future of the Natural Gas Market in Southeast Europe

Franz Gerner

Description

This study was to analyze the future role of natural gas in the energy mix of countries of South East Europe. The study further identifies regional, cross-border and country-specific gas infrastructure projects that are economically, financially and technically sound. The study also analyses, and makes proposals for, the institutional and policy issues relating to funding and implementing gas infrastructure projects. The study examines sources of gas supply from Russia, the Caspian region and other current and prospective producer countries through Turkey and other transit routes (including LNG) and assesses costs of supply and gasification prospects in nine gas markets in the South East Europe region:
⁃ Albania
⁃ Bosnia and Herzegovina
⁃ Bulgaria
⁃ Croatia
⁃ Kosovo
⁃ Macedonia
⁃ Montenegro
⁃ Romania
⁃ Serbia
These markets are all signatories of the Athens Memoranda of 2002 and 2003, which commit the participants to regional cooperation in electricity and gas.

Sujets

• Natural gas
• Southeast Europe
• Balkans
• Energy security
• Sustainable energy
• Climate change
• Energy

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 20 juillet 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 32
• EAN13: 9780821379981
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

The Future of the
Natural Gas Market in
Southeast EuropeThe Future of the
Natural Gas Market
in Southeast EuropeThe Future of the
Natural Gas Market
in Southeast Europe© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Washington DC 20433
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Internet: www.worldbank.org
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All rights reserved
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ment / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume
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ISBN: 978-0-8213-7864-9
eISBN: 978-0-8213-7998-1
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7864-9
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The future of the natural gas market in South East Europe.
p. cm.
ISBN 978-0-8213-7864-9—ISBN 978-0-8213-7998-1 (e-version)
1. Gas industry—Balkan Peninsula.
HD9581.B312F88 2009
382’.4228509496—dc22
2009041882
Cover design: Naylor Design, Inc.CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv
ABBREVIATIONS xvii
OVERVIEW 1
How This Report Is Organized 2
How the Report Has Been Distributed 3
Demand-Side Assessments 3
Supply-Side Options 12
Institutional Framework and Implementation Issues 28
Conclusions and Key Findings 35
1. INTRODUCTION 39
Study Background and Objectives 40
Study Methodology and Approach to Analysis 43
Overview of the Work Program and Report Content 46
2. DEMAND-SIDE ASSESSMENTS 49
Background: The Economic and Energy Sector Contexts 49
Demand Projections 53
Fuel Price Scenarios 61
Analysis of Prices, Demand Side 70
Storage Demand 80
v3. SUPPLY-SIDE OPTIONS 93
Analysis of Prices—Supply Side 94
Gas Sources of Potential Interest to Southeast Europe 99
LNG Potential Supply 105
Transmission Pipeline Supply Routes and Scenarios 135
Regional Gas Transmission Infrastructure 144
Regional Underground Gas Storage 166
Economics of Gas Distribution Networks 202
Gas Value Chain 215
Interaction with Western European Gas Markets 223
Implications of Supply Analysis for Each SEE Market 235
4. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK 247
The Gas Market in Southeast Europe 247
National Gas Markets 255
Cross-Border Framework 260
Underground Gas Storage 266
Financing of Regional Gas Investments 277
Conclusions on Institutional Issues 288
5. CONCLUSIONS AND KEY FINDINGS 295
Economics of Gasification 295
The Energy Community Gas Ring: A Cooperative Regional
Vision for Gas Development 297
Phased Development of the EC Ring 299
Access to Upstream Pipeline Capacity to Supply the EC Ring 300
Diversity of Gas Sources of Supply 301
Institutional and Regulatory Framework to Realize the Regional
Ring Concept 301
Roles of Public and Private Sector Players
in Realizing the Gasification Vision 302
vi Contents APPENDICES 305
A Future Russian Gas Prices 305
B Liquefied Natural Gas Sources of Interest 323
C Methodology for Calculating Pipeline Costs 329
D Detailed Transmission Pipeline Routes 333
E Prospects for Underground Gas Storage in Southeast Europe 355
F City Distribution Case Studies 377
G Private Financing 381
REFERENCES 385
BOXES
2.1 Product-to-Crude Price Regressions 71
3.1 The “Energy Bridge” Model: An Alternative
to a Regasification Terminal 122
3.2 Case Study: Building a Distribution Business in Nigeria 214
4.1 The Balgzand-Bacton Line 251
4.2 South Caucasus Pipeline Project 252
4.3 Risk Mitigation Instruments in the West African Gas
Pipeline Project 289
FIGURES
1 Projected Gas Demand in Nine SEE Markets, 2005–25 10
2 Projected Supply Gap in Nine SEE Markets, 2005–25 11
3 Expected Long-Term Load-Duration Curve in Southeast Europe 13
4 Storage Demand Outlook and Supply Options in
Non-EU Southeast Europe 27
2.1 Power Generation Capacity and Gas Demand under Three
Scenarios, 2005–20 57
2.2 Projected Gas Demand in Nine SEE Markets, 2005–25 58
2.3 Projected Supply Gap in Nine SEE Markets, 2005–25 59
2.4 Projected Supply Gap in Seven Westernmost SEE
Markets, 2005–25 62
Contents vii2.5 Daily Spot Prices of Crude Oil and Selected
Products, 2000–09 63
2.6 Rolling Average Prices of Crude Oil and Selected 64
2.7 Oil Price History, 1860–2009 66
2.8 Oil Price Changes, in Major Currencies and Relative
to Gold, since January 2000 67
2.9 Oil Price Outlook, 1990–2030 69
2.10 Inferred Relationships between Gas Prices and Crude Oil Prices 73
2.11 Comparative Netback Pricing Approach 75
2.12 Simplified Fuel Price Comparison 76
2.13 Assumed Load Buildup in Seven Non-EU SEE Markets,
2010–35 81
2.14 Expected Annual Volume—2.4 Bcm/y Low-Swing Initial
Anchor Loads 82
2.15 Annual Take-or-Pay Constraint—2 Bcm/y Low-Swing Initial 83
2.16 Annual Take-or-Pay Constraint—2 Bcm/y High-Swing Initial
Anchor Loads 84
2.17 Contracting Based on Annual Average Quantity Showing
Monthly Average Days 85
2.18 Contracting to Keep Maximum Daily Quantity within a
Monthly Average Days Constraint 86
2.19 Long-Run Mean Year Load-Duration Curve and Seasonal Profile 88
2.20 Long-Run 1-in-20-Years Peak Day and Mean Year
Load-Duration Curves 89
2.21 Long-Run 1-in-50-Years Energy and Mean Year Load-Duration
Curves 90
3.1 Historical Comparison of Crude Oil and Selected Estimated
Gas Import Prices, 2000–09 97
3.2 Overview of Atlantic and Pacific LNG Markets, 2000–15 108
3.3 Utilization of Liquefaction, Shipping, and Regasification
Capacity, 2000–15 109
3.4 Typical Value Chain for LNG 110
3.5 Growth of Shorter-Term LNG Trading, 1996–2020 113
viii Contents