Two Crises, Different Outcomes examines East Asian policy reactions to the two major crises of the last fifteen years: the global financial crisis of 2008-9 and the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. The calamity of the late 1990s saw a massive meltdown concentrated in East Asia. In stark contrast, East Asia avoided the worst effects of the Lehman Brothers collapse, incurring relatively little damage when compared to the financial devastation unleashed on North America and Europe. Much had changed across the intervening decade, not least that China rather than Japan had become the locomotive of regional growth, and that the East Asian economies had taken numerous steps to buffer their financial structures and regulatory regimes. This time, Asia avoided disaster; it bounced back quickly after the initial hit and has been growing in a resilient fashion ever since.The authors of this book explain how the earlier financial crisis affected Asian economies, why government reactions differed so widely during that crisis, and how Asian economies weathered the Great Recession. Drawing on a mixture of single-country expertise and comparative analysis, they conclude by assessing the long-term prospects that Asian countries will continue their recent success.Contributors: Muhamad Chatib Basri, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia and Professor of Economics at the University of Indonesia; Yun-han Chu, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica; Richard Doner, Emory University; Barry Naughton, University of California, San Diego; Yasunobu Okabe, Japan International Cooperation Agency Research Institute; T. J. Pempel, University of California, Berkeley; Thomas Pepinsky, Cornell University; Keiichi Tsunekawa, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo
Informations légales : prix de location à la page 0,7500€. Cette information est donnée uniquement à titre indicatif conformément à la législation en vigueur.
All rights reserved. Except or brie quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereo, must not be reproduced in any orm without permission in writing rom the publisher. For inormation, address Cornell UniversityPress, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850.
First published 2015 by Cornell University Press First printing, Cornell Paperbacks, 2015
Printed in the United States o America
Library o Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Two crises, diferent outcomes : East Asia and global finance / edited by T.J. Pempel and Keiichi Tsunekawa. pages cm. — (Cornell studies in political economy) Includes bibliographical reerences and index. ISBN 978-0-8014-5340-3 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-8014-7971-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Financial crises—Asia—Congresses. 2. Global Financial Crisis, 2008–2009—Congresses. 3. Asia—Economic conditions—1945– Congresses. 4. Asia—Economic conditions—21st century— Congresses. I. Pempel, T. J., 1942– editor. II. Tsunekawa, Keiichi, 1948– editor. III. Basri, M. Chatib. Tale o two crises. Container o (work): HB3808.T96 2015 330.95'0429—dc23 2014022390
Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the ullest extent possible in the publishing o its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-ree papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-ree, or partly composed o nonwood fibers. For urther inormation, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu.
Cloth printing Paperback printing
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2. A Tale of the Two Crises: Indonesia’s Political EconomyMuhammadChatîbBasrî
6
4
4
3. Unraveling the Enigma of East Asian Economic Resiliency: The Case of TaiwanYun-hanChu
1
9
0
110
1
7
5. China and the Two Crises: From 1997 to 2009BarryNaughton
4. Reacting to Financial Crises: Institutional Path Dependence in Korea and ThailandYasunobuOkabe
Tablesï.1. GDP growth rate, 1990–20132.1. Poîcy responses în 1997–98 and 2008–93.1. Taîwan’s top fiteen banks by net worth4.1. Externa debt o Korea, 2006–84.2. Externa debt o Thaîand, 2006–86.1. Ratîo o net înflow o debts to GDP, 1991–966.2. Ratîo o net înflow o învestment to GDP, 1991–966.3. Poîtîca-busîness reatîons în Southeast Asîa, 1990s and 2000s6.4. Poîcîes, învestors, and externa vunerabîîty8.1. Pubîc expendîture and natîona debt
14 48 79 104 107 143 143 149 157 193
Preface
TheEastAsîancountrîessurprîsedthewordbyanastonîshîngyquîckrecovery rom the devastatîng economîc crîsîs that hît the regîon în 1997–98. They repeated a sîmîary rapîd rebound rom the Goba Fînancîa Crîsîs o 2008–9 and have contînued to încrease theîr share o word productîon în the years sînce. Such achîevements raîse questîons about the sources o such resîîence and strength as we as about the ong-term economîc prospects o the regîon. To expore these questîons, the Japan ïnternatîona Cooperatîon Agency Research ïnstîtute ( JïCA-Rï) în 2010 aunched a research project on the poîtîca economy o the East Asîan countrîes. Keîîchî Tsunekawa served as dîrector o the înstîtute at the tîme. JïCA, the most împortant agency or oicîa deveopment assîstance o Japan, wanted to earn essons rom the project that ît coud utîîze în îts uture cooperatîon projects wîth the mîdde-încome countrîes în East Asîa and în îts deveopment operatîons în ower-încome countrîes în Asîa, Arîca, and Latîn Amerîca. Durîngthecourseotheproject,wehedtwoconerencesattheînstîtute,the first în September 2010 and the second în February 2012. ïn addîtîon to the chapters în thîs voume, papers were presented by Whasun Jho, Mîn Gyo Koo, ïkuo Kume, Jean-Caude Maswana, Thîtînan Pongsudhîrak, and Lîhuî Tîan. We thank the JïCA-Rï or the u financîa support o the proj-ect. Then deputy dîrector Hîroshî Kato, who îs now dîrector o JïCA-Rï and vîce presîdent o JïCA, and the managerîa staf o the înstîtute, provîded us wîth consîderabe hep în ogîstîcs. Fîona Shen-Bayh at the Unîversîty o Caî-ornîa, Berkeey, gave vauabe hep în preparîng the fina manuscrîpt. We aso benefited rom useu comments rom partîcîpants at the conerences. Fînay, we want to express our deepest thanks to Peter J. Katzensteîn and an anonymous revîewer who read the manuscrîpt and provîded hepu com-ments and crîtîques, as we as to Roger Haydon at Corne Unîversîty Press or hîs support and encouragement o the project.