Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system.

Agence Europeenne Pour L'Environnement

Description

Copenhague. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0065962

Sujets

• Environnement
• Changement climatique
• Scénario
• Technologie

Informations

• Publié par: temis-developpement-durable
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2005
• Nombre de lectures: 10
• Licence : En savoir +
  Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, partage des conditions initiales à l'identique
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

EEA Report No 1/2005
Climate change and a European low-carbon
energy system
ISSN 1725-9177EEA Report No 1/2005
Climate change and a European low-carbon
energy systemCover design: EEA
Layout: Brandpunkt A/S and EEA
Legal notice
The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European
Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the European Environment
Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that
may be made of the information contained in this report.
All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without the
permission in writing from the copyright holder. For rights of translation or reproduction please
contact EEA project manager Ove Caspersen (address information below).
Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the
Europa server (http://europa.eu.int).
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005
ISBN 92-9167-765-5
ISSN 1725-9177
© EEA, Copenhagen 2005
Front cover photo source: Pawel Kazmierczyk
Left smaller cover photo: © Glassman, stock.xchng 2004
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Web: www.eea.eu.int
Enquiries: www.eea.eu.int/enquiriesContents 5
Contents
Acknowledgements ................................................................................6
Summary ................................................................................................7
1. Introduction ......................................................................................9
1.1 Purpose and scope ........................................................................9
1.2 Climate change and energy use as sustainability issues ......................9
1.3 EU climate change policy developments ......................................... 10
1.4 Scenarios developed for this report ............................................... 12
1.5 Outline of the report ................................................................... 14
2. Climate change impacts 15
2.1 Overview of impacts .................................................................... 15
2.2 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change ............................... 17
3. Climate change targets 18
3.1 The Kyoto Protocol ...................................................................... 18
3.2 Potential sustainable greenhouse gas concentration and
temperature levels 20
3.3 Long-term global and regional emission targets .............................. 24
4. A global and European low greenhouse gas emission pathway ........30
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................... 30
4.2 EU emissions in the baseline scenario ............................................ 31
4.3 The climate action scenarios ......................................................... 31
4.4 Comparison with other scenarios .................................................. 37
5. Policies and technologies for a transition to a European
low-carbon energy system ..............................................................39
5.1 Introduction ................................................................................ 39
5.2 Overall changes in the energy system in the climate action scenario .. 40
5.3 Developments in the energy sector and key technologies ................. 43
5.4 Future actions .............................................................................. 56
6. Costs of a global and European low-carbon energy system .............58
6.1 Global low-carbon energy system .................................................. 58
6.2 European low ............................................. 61
6.3 Uncertainties and assumptions ..................................................... 66
7. Acronyms ........................................................................................67
8. References ......................................................................................68
9. Annex 1 — Emissions of greenhouse gases by country for
baseline, climate action base and extended renewable scenarios ....736 Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by the European project leader was Hans Eerens. Peter
Environment Agency and the European Saunders assisted in editing the report.
Environment Agency’s European Topic EEA acknowledges advice provided at
Centre on Air and Climate Change various stages during the preparation of
(ETC/ACC). The contributing authors, in the report by an advisory group consisting
alphabetical order, were Andreas Barkman, of Lars Mueller, Matti Vainio (European
André Jol, Stephane Isoard, Aphrodite Commission, Environment DG), André
Mourelatou and Tobias Wiesenthal Berger (EEA Scientific Committee), Nebojsa
(EEA) and Judith Bates, Marcel Berk, Bas Nakicenovic (IIASA), Juergen Schneider
Eickhout, Hans Eerens, Michel den Elzen, (EMEP) and Cedric Philibert (IEA).
Bernd Gugele, Leonidas Mantzos, Jelle van Comments provided by the national focal
Minnen, Dora Petroula, Bas van Ruijven, points and other country representatives as
Rob Swart, Willemijn Tuinstra, Peter Taylor well as other members of the EEA Scientific
and Detlef van Vuuren (ETC/ACC) and Committee (Manfred Kleemann, Costas
Antonio Soria (JRC IPTS). The EEA project Cartalis) are also acknowledged.
manager was André Jol, the ETC/ACC Summary 7
Summary
This report presents an assessment of to better quantify the required global
possible greenhouse gas emission reduction emission reductions.
pathways made feasible by global action and • The EU Environment Council has not
a transition to a low-carbon energy system yet fixed emission reduction targets for
in Europe by 2030. It analyses trends and the EU, since these will be negotiated in
projections for emissions of greenhouse future. However, the EU Environment
gases and the development of underlying Council, concluded that to achieve
trends in the energy sector. It also describes stabilisation in an equitable manner,
the actions that could bring about the developed countries should reduce
transition to a low-carbon energy system in emissions to about 15–30 % below the
the most cost-effective way. base year (1990) level by 2020 and to 60–
80 % below by 2050. This report analyses
assumed EU emission reduction targets of
Key messages 20 % below the 1990 level by 2020, 40 %
below by 2030 and 65 % by 2050.
• Many changes in climate, and the • The climate action scenario shows that
impacts of these changes, are already by domestic actions alone, based on a
visible globally and in Europe, and carbon permit price of EUR 65/t CO ,
2
these are projected to become more the EU could reduce its greenhouse gas
pronounced. In Europe, the Arctic emissions to 16–25 % below the 1990
region, mountain regions, coastal zones, level by 2030. Thus a substantial share
wetlands and the Mediterranean region of the reductions needed to achieve the
are particularly vulnerable. assumed target of 40 % by 2030 could
• Limiting global mean temperature be achieved by actions inside the EU,
increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial with international emissions trading
levels (the EU target) would lead to providing the remaining reductions.
the avoidance of many, but not all, • Substantial low-cost emission reductions
adverse effects globally and in Europe. are projected in the climate action
Adaptation strategies, in addition to scenario for nitrous oxide and methane
mitigation strategies, are required at emissions from industry, waste
European, national, regional and local management and agriculture. However
levels. these options will have been almost fully
• In the long term (after 2100), exploited by 2030.
achieving the 2 °C target would • In the climate action scenario,
require atmospheric greenhouse gas substantial changes in the EU energy
concentration levels of well below 550 system are projected, leading to energy-
ppm CO -equivalent (broadly consistent related emissions of CO (the most
2 2
with 450 ppm of CO alone). important greenhouse gas) in 2030 that
2
• For the analyses in this report, the are 11 % below the 1990 level, compared
2 °C target has been translated into with 14 % above in the baseline scenario.
stabilisation of greenhouse gas The baseline scenario assumes modestly
conce