Modeling the Implied Volatility Surface

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  • exposé
Modeling the Implied Volatility Surface Jim Gatheral Global Derivatives and Risk Management 2003 Barcelona May 22, 2003
  • random sum of random variables
  • random time change from conventional calendar time
  • trading time
  • market impact
  • stock
  • change
  • trade
  • time

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Turning Policy
into Practice:
Driving Home
Energy Upgrades
Danielle Sass Byrnett
Department of Energy
Why Buildings? Why Focus on Homes?
Buildings Consume Energy Use

• 40% of U.S. energy
• 72% of electricity
• 38% of carbon emissions


By 2030:

• 270 million tons CO2 emissions
• 82% of projected electricity growth

Sources: US Energy Information Agency; Buildings Energy Data Book (BED) 2009;
Sources: U.S> Census; US Energy Information Agency; Buildings Energy Data Book (BED) 2009;
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010.
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010.
• 116 million households in the U.S.
• < 1% are benefiting from energy efficiency improvements

Federal Policy Goal: 1 million homes Home Energy Upgrade Programs Key
Why Now?
• Expand as Recovery Act stimulus subsides
– March 2012 spending deadline for formula
funds
• Expand as utilities / program
administrators work toward higher savings
targets (in some areas)
– 20+ states with savings targets
– Need new programs as savings from light bulbs
go away due to 2012 light bulb standard

Leverage Federal Investment to Transition
to Private Marketplace
Mission: Grow the number of sustainable efficiency
programs and home energy upgrades across the country
Approach:
• Test Many Models
• Collect Promising Approaches
– Collect and analyze grantee program data
– Continuous & retrospective evaluations
– Analyze business models
• Identify Actions that Warrant Replication
(and those to avoid in the future)
• Promote Lessons Learned What’s the Secret?
Market Financing?
Market reality: Demand?
Despite proven technologies
and equipment, building
owners have been slow to
Workforce? adopt energy efficiency

measures Data?

Need:
Demonstrated solutions that Service
Delivery? Other? knock down past barriers
Market Demand: EERE Examples
Turning Policy into Practice: Driving Home Energy Upgrades
• Home Energy Score
• Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program & Sustainable
Energy Resources for Consumers
• Better Buildings Neighborhood Program
Home Energy Score (HES)
A Reliable, Easy to Understand Tool

• >1,000 pilot homes in summer 2011
• Specific interest in assessing:
– Scoring tool and methodology
– Homeowner understanding and
response
– Assessor feedback
• Based on findings, DOE refining
– Launch nationwide
Winter 2011-12
Learn more during session 7D
Fri. 8:30am
8 | Building Technologies Program buildings.energy.gov Pilot Label Design
Focus Groups and Social Science Review:

• Initially, homeowners want straightforward, simple information
– Clear, simple, colorful graphics that make sense at a glance

• Then, customized recommendations with costs and savings

• People are influenced by how they compare to their peers, neighbors:

– Show how they compare to the average home
 satisfied with anywhere above average

– Give them a motivational point of comparison (top X percent)
 likely to be motivated to do more
9 eere.energy.gov 10 eere.energy.gov Homeowners understood and liked the scoring method*
More than 90% of respondents:
“The label is easy to read • The amount of time they had to
and understand.” be in the house was reasonable
• The 1 to 10 scale was easy to -- Pilot Homeowner
understand
More than 80% of respondents:
• The recommendations would help “Homeowners were
them prioritize energy excited to see how their
improvements to make to their house rated on the
home
tool.” • They now understand how their
-- Pilot Participant home compares to top performing
homes in their area
*Based on preliminary results.
11 eere.energy.gov