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Latest Oil Market Update
Riyadh 16 February 2016
© OECD/IEA - 2015
© OECD/IEA - 2015
Market to tighten in 2H16
Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16*mb/d mb/d *OPEC crude production assumed at 32.7mb/d from 98 3.5 February 2016 onwards 96 2.5 94 1.5 92 0.5 90 0.5 88 1.5 86 84 2.5 1Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16 Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply*
© OECD/IEA - 2015
Non-OPEC supply growth shrinking fast
mb/dTotal NonOPEC Supply, yoy Change 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Other North America Total
Coming off record 2.7 mb/d growth in 4Q14, non-OPEC production seen contracting by end-15 Net decline of 0.6 mb/d projected for 2016
© OECD/IEA - 2015
OECD industry stocks continue to build in December
mb 3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
OECD Total Oil Stocks
2,500 Jan Mar May Jul Range 20102014 2014
Sep Nov Jan Avg 20102014 2015
© OECD/IEA - 2015
97
96
95
94
93
92
Market tightening in 2016, slowly
2014
Global oil supply/demand (mbd) Demand MTOMR 2015
2015
2016
2017
2018
Demand OMR Dec. 2015
Supply OMR Dec. 2015
Demand OMR Feb. 2016
Supply OMR Feb. 2016
After December OMR, 2016 demand revised down 200 kbd Estimated 2016 supply revised up 100 kbd