GBTA Forecasts Overall Fall in Business Travel Spend Across Major European Markets in 2012, but Expects Markets to Improve in 2013

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Extrait

GBTA Forecasts Overall Fall in Business

Travel Spend Across Major European Markets

in 2012, but Expects Markets to Improve in

2013

PR Newswire

LONDON, September 20, 2012

LONDON

,

September 20, 2012

/PRNewswire/ --

Report finds strong correlation between job growth, exports, and business

travel spend across Western European markets

The Global Business Travel Association ("GBTA"), the world's premier business

travel and corporate meetings organization, announces the results of its second

GBTA BTI™ Outlook -

Western Europe

report, a semi-annual analysis of the five

most critical business travel markets in

Europe

:

Germany

, the UK,

France

,

Italy

and

Spain

. These five markets together form the lion's share of business travel

in

Europe

, nearly 70%, and provide a barometer for the health of the entire

European business travel market. The report, sponsored by Visa Inc., includes

the GBTA BTI™, an index of business travel spending that distills market

performance over a period of time.

Highlights

Germany

,

France

and the UK are expected to see positive GDP growth in 2012, albeit

under the 1.0% level

Interdependencies in trade, banking, and distribution have cast a shadow over the

region. As such, 2012 GDP growth expectation for the Euro Area (17 country definition)

has been downgraded following the Spring 2012 report to -0.4%

Italy

and

Spain

are currently in recession and expected to remain so until 2014

Overall business travel spend among major European markets will fall 2.2% in 2012 to

$177 billion USD

before bouncing back by 1.4% in 2013

German business travel spend is expected to rise 1.6% to hit

$50.8 billion USD

in

2012, before growing 3.3% in 2013

UK business travel spend is expected to remain flat in 2012 (

$40.2 billion USD

) before

growing 2.8% in 2013

France

business travel spend will fall -2.2% to

$17.9 billion USD

in 2012, before

growing 1.1% in 2013

Spain

business travel spend will decline -7.8% in 2012 to

$17.9 billion USD

before

falling another 1.6% in 2013

Italian business travel spend will fall -6.9% in 2012 to

$32.9 billion USD

and will shed

another -1.2% in 2013

Paul Tilstone, managing director of GBTA Europe, commented: "

Europe

has

unfolded pretty much as we expected in our inaugural Spring 2012 report.

However, as a result of weaker first half prospects in

Spain

,

Italy

,

France

and

the UK, our 2012 GDP growth expectation for the entire Euro Area has been

downgraded slightly in the Fall report to -0.4%, from -0.3%. We are confident

that the second analysis of the region, in our semi-annual report series,

continues to provide strong, accurate insights into both short- and long-term

trends in domestic and international outbound business travel activity."

Tilstone continued, "However, with lingering debt challenges and continued

austerity measures, the European economy will likely continue to be challenged

for years to come. The GBTA's fall report therefore remains cautious, with

overall business travel spend forecast to increase by 1.4% in

Western Europe

in

2013."

Domestic business travel and job growth

European unemployment is arguably one of the Continent's key social and

economic concerns. Only

Germany

has succeeded in bringing down

unemployment since the Great Recession, but even its progress has slowed

through 2011 and 2012.

Spain's

unemployment rate has risen to nearly 25%,

Greece

is at 22% and

Portugal

at 15%. Despite modest GDP growth

expectations, even

France

and the

United Kingdom

are not expected to make

progress on unemployment until 2014 or beyond.

International outbound business travel and exports

Export growth logged a welcome surprise in Q2-2012 for

Germany

and

Spain

.

Germany's

trade position is more globally diversified with larger export

proportions going to the world's most dynamic emerging markets, which is not

the case for most other Euro Area countries whose trade is more dependent on

intraregional relationships.

Country-Level Business Travel Outlooks

Germany

GBTA forecasts German business travel spending to grow by 1.6% in 2012 to

$50.8

billion

and 3.3% in 2013 to

$52.5 billion

Domestic business travel spending will grow an estimated 2.8% in 2012

International outbound spending in

Germany

will decline -3.0% in 2012

Business travel spending in

Germany

has been supported by relatively strong

industrial and service sectors and is spread across a number of large commercial hubs

including

Frankfurt

,

Munich

and

Berlin

United Kingdom

The UK has the second highest level of spending on business travel in

Western

Europe

with

$40.2 billion

in 2011

The UK maintains a large volume of trade on the European continent resulting in a high

proportion of spending on international outbound business travel (35% in 2011)

The GBTA forecasts total spending on business travel in the UK to remain flat in 2012.

International outbound travel from the UK will fall -3.1% and domestic business travel

spending will grow 1.6%

Moving into 2013, GBTA predicts growth to pick up pace (2.8%), with domestic

business travel gaining 2.3% and spending on international outbound business travel

gaining 3.9%

France

Business travel spend in

France

is expected to suffer a loss of -2.2% in 2012 with total

spending on business travel falling to

$35.7 billion

Business travel in

France

will continue to recover along with the broader European

economy in 2013 and will grow an estimated 1.1% to

$35.1 billion

Any recovery in French business travel spending will be driven by domestic travel,

which is expected to be flat in 2012 followed by growth of 4.5% in 2013

GBTA forecasts outbound international travel from

France

to fall -5.7% in 2012 and

another -4.6% in 2013

Spain

Southern Europe

will remain in recession until at least late 2013

GBTA expects spending on Spanish business travel will decrease by -7.8% in 2012,

falling to

$17.9 billion

Spending on total domestic business travel in

Spain

to drop by -5.9% in 2012 followed

by a drop of -0.4% in 2013

International outbound business travel from

Spain

, which has grown to make up one-

fifth of total Spanish business travel, will fall at an even greater rate than domestic, -

14.4% in 2012 followed by a drop of -6.2% in 2013

Outbound international travel will suffer due to a weak domestic economy, slower

growth in

China

and the US and a relatively weaker Euro

Italy

Much like

Spain

, although to a lesser degree, the situation in

Italy

continues to get

worse rather than better

It is expected that austerity measures will continue to take their toll on the corporate

sector and corporate travel budgets though the rest of 2012 - resulting in business travel

spend losses of -6.9% in 2012, followed by -1.2% in 2013

Spending on domestic business travel in

Italy

will fall -6.5% in 2012 ,followed by

another -0.8% drop in 2013

Spending on international outbound business travel, which will also suffer from a

weaker Euro, will fall -10% in 2012 and -3.9% in 2013