Moral en berne pour les entrepreneurs allemands

Description

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in October to 103.2 points from 104.7 points in the previous month. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again.
In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated significantly. Assessments of the current business situation were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally higher than the long-term average. Business expectations also continued to deteriorate. Capacity utilisation rates fell by 0.3 percentage points to 83.7 percent. Export business expectations, however, was the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence.
In wholesaling the business climate index rose. After three consecutive decreases, assessments of the current business situation improved considerably. Business expectations remained slightly pessimistic. In retailing the business climate continued to cloud over. Retailers were markedly less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations, by contrast, brightened somewhat.
In construction the business climate indicator dropped marginally, but remains at a very good level. Construction firms assessed their current business situation as slightly more favourable. Business expectations, however, fell to their lowest level in a year.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

Sujets

• Allemagne
• Europe
• entrepreneur

Informations

• Publié par: Fil_actu
• Publié le: 27 octobre 2014
• Nombre de lectures: 3
• Langue: English

Extrait

Ifo Business Climate Germany Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2014 Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Fall

The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in October to 103.2 points from 104.7 points in the previous month. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the sixmonth business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again.

 Inmanufacturingthe business climate deteriorated significantly. Assessments of the current business situation were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally higher than the longterm average. Business expectations also continued to deteriorate. Capacity utilisation rates fell by 0.3 percentage points to 83.7 percent. Export business expectations, however, was the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence.  Inwholesalingthe business climate index rose. After three consecutive decreases, assessments of the current business situation improved considerably. Business expectations remained slightly pessimistic. In retailingbusiness climate continued to cloud over. Retailers were markedly less satisfied with their the current business situation. Their expectations, by contrast, brightened somewhat.  Inconstructionbusiness climate indicator dropped marginally, but remains at a very good level. the Construction firms assessed their current business situation as slightly more favourable. Business expectations, however, fell to their lowest level in a year. HansWerner Sinn President of the Ifo Institute

Germany (Index, 2005 = 100, seasonally adjusted) Month/year 10/13 11/13 12/13 01/14 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 107.7 109.4 109.5 110.6 111.2 110.6 111.2 110.3 Climate 111.5 112.3 111.6 112.4 114.4 115.2 115.3 114.7 Situation Expectations 104.0 106.6 107.4 108.8 108.2 106.3 107.2 106.1 Source: Ifo Business Survey. For long timeseries in Excel format consultwww.cesifogroup.de/langereihen.

06/14 109.6 114.7 104.7

07/14 107.9 112.8 103.3

08/14 106.3 111.1 101.6

09/14 104.7 110.4 99.3

10/14 103.2 108.4 98.3

1/3

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted) Month/year 10/13 11/13 12/13 01/14 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 Trade and Industry 8.0 11.4 11.5 13.7 14.8 13.7 14.7 13.1 11.7 8.5 5.2 2.2 0.6  Manufacturing 9.3 6.2 1.511.7 15.5 15.6 17.7 19.7 19.0 20.1 18.9 15.5 12.3  Construction 3.6 3.5 4.0 3.7 5.5 5.3 7.0 7.25.8 2.8 1.3 2.4 0.5  Wholesaling 2.5 0.29.2 2.6 8.3 11.9 9.4 15.3 12.5 10.8 14.3 11.2 12.4  Retailing 0.7 2.1 4.63.9 5.4 4.8 4.3 8.4 8.4 7.6 4.8 7.9 3.7 Source: Ifo Business Survey. Explanatory note: The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses from firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of thecurrent business situation and theirexpectations forthe next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactory” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. Thebalance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”; the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. Thebusiness climateis a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For the purpose of calculating theindex values,the transformed balances are all normalised to the average of the year 2005.

2/3

Ifo Business Climate in the German Service Sector Results of the October 2014 Ifo Business Survey

Ifo Business Climate for Service Sector Improves Clearly

The Ifo Business Climate Indicator for the German service sector rose in October to 23.8 balance points, from 19.0 points in the previous month. Service providers were far more satisfied with their current business situation. They were also more optimistic about future business developments and plan to recruit additional staff. HansWerner Sinn President of the Ifo Institute

German Service Sector (balances, seasonally adjusted) Month/Year 10/13 11/13 12/13 01/14 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14 Climate 15.5 19.3 23.5 25.4 20.9 19.2 22.1 21.5 25.2 22.4 20.1 19.0 23.8 Situation 22.0 24.2 30.9 32.8 30.3 32.4 33.2 30.8 36.6 30.5 34.1 27.8 34.0 Expectations 9.1 14.6 16.3 18.3 11.9 7.0 10.5 14.16.8 11.6 12.6 14.4 14.7 Source: Ifo Business Survey. For long timeseries in Excel format consultwww.cesifogroup.de/langereihen. Explanatory note: The Ifo Business Survey of the service sector is based on ca. 2,500 monthly survey responses from firms in key segments of the tertiary sector, especially businessoriented segments (excl. distribution, financial services, Leasing, insurance and government). The survey is conducted and calculated in the same way as the Ifo Business Survey of industry and trade. The indicator for the Business Climate in the service sector has not yet been incorporated into the If o Business Climate Index for industry and trade.

3/3