Daily May 6, 2011.pub

Etheoret

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Daily May 6, 2011.pub

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• Arts

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• Publié par: ecomejex
• Nombre de lectures: 145
• Langue: Français

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GLOBALFXSTRATEGY CamillaSutton,CFA,CMTEricTheoret DailyForeignExchangeUpdate ChiefCurrencyStrategistCurrencyStrategist (416)866‐5470(416)863‐7030 Monday,May9,2011 [e-mail]

MARKETOPENSRETRACINGSOMEOFLASTWEEKLOSSES GERMANEXPORTSARESTRONG‐SOOTHINGFEARS • CADisrecoveringsomelostgroundonstrongercommoditiesandaweaker USD;Friday’semploymentreleaseshouldsoothsomefears. • EUR‐fearsoverGreekexitdonotcometofruition,soothingfears. • EUR ‐ahealthycorrectionlastweek;butfundamentalsarenotbroken. Germanyreportedstrongexportsdata;thisweek’sfocusisCPIandGDP. • JPY‐dovishBoJminutesandriskappetiteweighingonyentoday. • CNY‐exportdatatobereleasedintomorrow’sAsiansessionandtheUS‐ ChinaSEDcouldprovidesomemarketvolatility. • Thisweek’sfocuswillbeFedspeak,USinflationandtradingpatterns. FXMarketUpdate‐Marketsarestabilizingfollowinglastweek’sbroad‐based selloffinrisk.Commoditiesarestronger,equitiesarepointingtoapositive openandtheUSDisgenerallyweaker.Incurrencies,theNordicsarethe strongestperformersagainsttheUSDasweapproachtheNorthAmerican open,followedbyAUD,EUR,CHF,CADandNZD.GBPisflatonaweakened economicoutlookandJPYisweakerasaresultofdovishBoJminutes.The StrategicEconomicDialogue(SED)betweenChinaandtheUSwillbeanim‐ WHOISMOSTEXPOSEDTOPIGDEBT portantmarketeventthisweek,givenongoingfrictionoverthepaceofthe EURBn CNY’sappreciation.China’stradebalance,tobereleasedintheAsianses‐ sion,isanothereagerlyawaiteddatarelease.E.T. WhatchangedforEURlastweek: • Extendedpositioninghasbeenshakenoutofthemarket. • TheECBhassignaledthatitisunlikelytoincreaseinterestratesinJune, buthasleftthedooropentoasummerhike. • IndiaandMalaysiahavebothincreasedinterestrates,fightinginflation headon,butpotentiallyweighingongrowth. • ThepatternofUSeconomicdataisincreasinglyuneven‐againof244k jobsonnonfarm,butanincreaseintheunemploymentrateto9.0%; softnessintheISMnon‐manufacturingcomposite,butongoingstrength inthemanufacturingindex. Source:BIS,ECB,TheEconomist,ScotiaFXStrategy WhatdidnotchangeforEURlastweek‐alot: • Asiancentralbanksaretighteninginterestrates,whichmightinduce somemoderationingrowthandinflation,butshouldlaythefoundation ECBSMPPURCHASESAPPEARTOHAVESTOPPED formedium‐termfinancialstability. • TheECBremainsinatighteningcycle.Withinflationarypressuresbuild‐ ing,itwilllikelyhikeinterestratesseveraltimesthisyear. • TheFedseesheadlinepressuresastransitory,isfacingunemployment levelsof9%,anunevenpatternofgrowthandownsover20%oftheUS Treasurymarket.Interestratespreadsarelikelytomovefurtheragainst theUSDthisyear. • TheUScontinuestostrugglewithprovidingacrediblefiscalplan. • ThereareongoingproblemsinEurope,butauthoritieshavedisplayedan unprecedentedcommitmenttosupportingtheperipherycountries. NoneofthislaysoutanenvironmentwherethevaluationoftheUSDshould risematerially.Weholdayear‐endEURforecastof1.50.C.S. Americas USDCAD(0.9645)CADhasgained0.3%sinceFriday’scloseandisamid‐ performer.Overthelastthreesessions,CADhasheldinreasonablywell, WehavelaunchedadailyEmergingAsianFXstrategypublication. Ifyouareinterestedinbeingaddedtothisdistributionlist,pleasee‐[e-mail]