Global Terrorism Threat in 2006

Rohan Gunaratna

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Global Terrorism Threat in 2006

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• Publié par: ycyzadom
• Nombre de lectures: 47
• Langue: Français

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Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, NTU, South Spine, Block S4, Level B4, Nanyang Avenue, Singapore

639798.

Tel. No. 67906982, Email:

[e-mail]

, Website:

www.idss.edu.sg

.

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Global Terrorism Threat in 2006

Rohan Gunaratna

*

9 January 2006

Highlights in 2006:

•

Most nations will recognise terrorism as their tier-one security threat;

•

Iraq will emerge as the international epicentre for the production of global terrorism;

•

In Afghanistan, the terrorist threat will grow;

•

Parallel to Al Qaeda, the Iraq-based Zarkawi will build a global network;

•

Rifts over strategy will develop within the global jihad movement.

The Context:

Three profound developments characterise the contemporary threat landscape. First, the

singular threat posed by Al Qaeda will be surpassed by a larger threat posed by the global

jihad movement. A conglomerate of four-dozen groups, linked ideologically, will wage both

local and global jihad campaigns worldwide. Second, Iraq has replaced Afghanistan as the

epicentre of jihad. Like Afghanistan produced the last generation of fighters, the insurgency

in Iraq is producing and catalysing a new generation of urban and suicidal terrorists and

guerrillas. Third, the increasing porosity of the borders between the threat groups has led to

greater cooperation between them. Greater exchange of ideas, technology, and personnel

between the groups has increased the scale and magnitude of threat.

Assessment:

As the terrorist threat globalises, most governments will recognise terrorism as the tier–one

national security threat. Despite enhanced government investment to combat terrorism, the

year 2006 will witness the spread of terrorism with increasing frequency and lethality. With

an escalation in attacks in Iraq and the renewal of violence in Afghanistan, the threat of

politically-motivated violence will grow both in the Middle East and Asia. The primary threat

to North America, Europe and Australasia will be from the continuing radicalisation of the

émigré pockets.

Although Al Qaeda, the most hunted terrorist group in history, will decline in power, strength

and size, the threat posed by the global jihad movement will grow. The intermitted successes

by governments against terrorist cells planning and preparing attacks will be overshadowed

by the tempo of the insurgency in Iraq. The momentum of attacks in Iraq will influence Jihadi

IDSS COMMENTARIES

(3/2006)

IDSS Commentaries are intended to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy

relevant background and analysis of contemporary developments.

The views of the

authors are their own and do not represent the official position of IDSS.