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Global Manufacturing Outlook – Relationships, Risk and Reach

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40 pages
KPMG publie son étude “Global Manufacturing Outlook – Relationships, Risk and Reach”, réalisée en 2010 auprès de près de 200 cadres supérieurs responsables des opérations et de la supply chain dans des entreprises industrielles (aéronautique, ingénierie, conglomérats industriels) aux Etats-Unis, en Europe de l’Ouest, et en Asie Pacifique au sujet de l’évolution de la supply chain dans un contexte économique incertain.
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G lobal Manufacturing Outlook R elationships, Risk and Reach Global research commissioned by KPMG International from the Economist Intelligence Unit K PMG INTERNATIONAL © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Global Manufacturing Outlook is a KPMG International report that investigates how industrial manufacturers are adapting their business models and supply chain tactics to address the ever-changing global economic context. This report was produced in co-operation with The Economist Intelligence Unit, which also executed the online survey and conducted the interviews on behalf of KPMG. We would like to thank all the executives who participated in the survey and interviews for their valuable time and insight. Interviewees (Listed alphabetically by organization name) Bill Frame Steve Churchhouse President Executive Vice-President of Supply Chain Jacob Holz Company Rolls-Royce Peter Connelly PK Ghose Chief Procurement Officer Chief Financial Officer Leggett & Platt Tata Chemicals Maarten de Vries Timothy Lynch Global Head of Purchasing General Manager of Procurement Philips U.S. Steel © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. About the Survey A total of 196 senior manufacturing executives participated in the survey, all of whom are responsible for, or significantly involved in, supply chain strategy. Respondents were drawn from the aerospace, metals, engineering and conglomerates sectors, and 40 percent were C-suite executives or above. Thirty-six percent were based in Western Europe, 32 percent in North America, and 23 percent in the Asia-Pacific region, with the remainder coming from across the rest of the world. All participants represent companies with more than US$1 billion in annual revenue; 42 percent work for firms with more than US$5 billion. What are your organization’s global annual revenues in US dollars? $1bn to $5bn 18% $6bn to $10bn $11bn to $25bn 11% More than $25bn58% 13% Which of the following best describes your job title? 1%1% 3% Board member Senior VP/VP/Director 15% 12% CEO/President/Managing director Head of business unit3% CFO, Treasurer, Comptroller or equivalent Head of department5%12% COO Manager 17%8% CIO/Technology director Other Other C-level executive or equivalent24% In which region are you personally based? 1%3% Western Europe 5% North America 36% Asia-Pacific23% Middle East and Africa Latin America Eastern Europe32% What is your primary industry? Engineering and industrial products 21% Metals 37% Aerospace and defense Conglomerates All graphs in this report are sourced 19% from research conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit on behalf of 22%KPMG International. Due to rounding, graphs may not equal 100 percent. © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Foreword When we initiated this research paper, chain design and layout has become light manufacturing experts or logistics the world seemed to be returning to far more complex. Leading strategies hubs, while others will serve as centers normal. The reality has been anything now involve detailed scenario modeling for innovation. but, as the stock market recovered then to determine where and what to Manufacturers will also become more fell, production improved to replenish source, the optimal number and size resourceful in how they manage risk. inventories and then declined, and of distribution centers, and which Some will reduce exposures in the employment figures remained anemic. suppliers will make the best long-term supply chain by making products closer Globally, business attitudes vacillated partnerships. to point of sale, clustering plants and between confidence and caution, jarred While early outsourcing programs suppliers near key markets. Others, by surprises such as the European were focused on the lower costs of with diverse products across global sovereign debt crisis, relief at better- production in emerging economies, markets, may choose to put than-expected consumer spending then today’s location equation is far more management closer to the supply base, disappointment over sagging consumer layered. In an industry characterized by and engage more directly in developing confidence. All of this showed us that intense pricing pressures, determining and managing key partners. the manufacturing environment has not the most favorable tax regimes, the returned to normal. For DI companies, the new normal most attractive labor markets, and the may offer exceptional opportunities to impact of currency volatility as well as Our survey findings suggest that those willing to create new supply the most stable geographies from a uncertainty is holding companies back chain models that appropriately balance political and regulatory point of view, from executing bold changes to their agility, sensitivity to risk, quality and is central to forging competitive supply chain structures. Still, with cost. While the financial crisis revealed advantage. uncertainty showing little sign of key vulnerabilities in our interconnected abating, organizations may be global economy, it may also have Given the accelerating pace of compelled to reassess their strategy provided a needed catalyst in helping innovation, companies across the sector and operations. Sustained instability in organizations create more dynamic, will improve collaboration, trimming such things as currency, commodity and resilient and responsive supply chains. their supply base in some cases in fuel prices marks a new era in which As the survey results show, the order to deepen relationships across volatility is likely to remain a permanent sector is well-poised to leverage that the board. Ownership and supplier feature of the operating landscape. In opportunity for its continued growth models will also become more diverse. this environment, the advantage will and success. Some functions, once managed by a go to those organizations best able to single company and its sourcing partner, anticipate and respond to changing may become inter-company and business conditions. managed jointly, as a way to spread This has direct implications for supply risk, share development costs, and chains, the central nervous system for accelerate time-to-market. Diversified Industrials (DI) companies. Geographies, like skill sets, have their Traditionally supply chain decisions own maturity curve. Across Europe, rested on routine considerations: who Asia and the Americas, we’ll continue could make the best component for the Jeff Dobbsto see pockets of excellence emerge. best price. But as their role has evolved KPMG’s Global Head of Some areas may gain prominence as from the tactical to the strategic, supply Diversified Industrials © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Table of Contents Executive Summary Introduction Supplier Relationships Rethinking Risk that Bring Value Changing Supply Conclusion Chain Geography? © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Executive Summary As a result of the downturn, manufacturers experienced a relatively short, very sharp shock, followed by a quick rebound in demand aided by substantial government spending worldwide. Despite cautious optimism for a lasting recovery, significant uncertainty about the future remains, especially as stimulus programs tail off. Recent leading indicators point to a slackening in demand – and perhaps worse. This study, produced in collaboration with the Economist Intelligence Unit, surveyed 196 senior executives worldwide to understand how the supply chains of industrial manufacturing firms are shifting as a result. The overall picture is not one of revolutionary change toward a commonly accepted, new set of best practices. Rather, many companies are experimenting with a range of approaches. Some of these may not stand the test of time. Given, however, the standing of the companies studied – all have annual revenues of over US$1billion – those innovations that prove their value are likely to shape the sector’s supply chain strategies in the years to come. Among the survey’s key findings are: Strategic suppliers are increasingly becoming partners rather than purveyors of goods and services. Many companies are looking for fewer, longer-term supplier relationships, and more than half plan either to collaborate more closely with suppliers on – or give responsibility to them for – product innovation, product development, research and development (R&D), cost reduction, and supply chain agility. Interviewees suggest that building closer relationships was worth the price of helping suppliers financially during the downturn. Management of supplier risk has become more hands-on as a result of the downturn, but by avoiding certain risks, companies may be losing out. The recession has also caused companies, as one interviewee puts it, “to sharpen our pencils” on supplier risk. In some areas, however, the tendency seems to be to avoid potential problems altogether, or diversify around them, rather than to understand the risk. This can mean companies lose out on opportunities, such as tapping into the research potential of China. The geography of sourcing, a combination of the global and the local, is in flux as companies consider the appropriate link between customer and supply chain location. Low-cost country sourcing remains the priority for most supply chains, with China as the big beneficiary. While expected geographic shifts within supply chains are largely cost-driven, a significant minority of companies expect them to more closely reflect consumer markets in the future. 4 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. GLOBAL MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK 5 © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. 6 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Introduction The downturn was a sharp one for manufacturing: global industrial production dropped 9.2 percent in 2009 after rising just 0.1 percent in 2008, according to Economist Intelligence Unit data. A full recovery to 2007 levels is not expected until 2011, underscoring continued market uncertainty. These annual figures tell only part of the whole story, however, as rapid shifts occurred within each year. JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), as well as most national PMIs, show a sharp drop in output beginning in mid 2008 as companies slashed inventory. The decline briefly touched bottom in January 2009, followed by a surprisingly rapid improvement. By the middle of last year, manufacturing output had even begun to increase. The survey data reflects cautious hope: 78 percent of respondents are either optimistic or very optimistic about the next twelve to twenty-four months only 2 percent are pessimistic. According to the latest economic indicators, though, the outlook is far from clear. PMIs released around the world throughout this summer have suggested that growth is moderating, especially in Asia, which may mean either a blip on the road to recovery, or the beginning of a second dip to the current recession. In such an unpredictable environment, weakening of demand for manufactured goods will naturally make for sustained pressure on manufacturers’ supply chains. This study looks at how industrial manufacturers are adjusting. How optimistic are you about your company’s business outlook for the next 12 to 24 months? Very optimistic 27% Optimistic 51% Neither optimistic nor pessimistic 21% Pessimistic 2% Very pessimistic 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: KPMG International, 2010 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK 7 © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved. Survey respondents certainly recognize that current arrangements have weaknesses. At its most basic, supply chain management has always been about obtaining necessary inputs and distributing outputs at the lowest possible cost. Difficult financial times only magnify the importance of value for money. More survey respondents list cost (66 percent) as the leading attribute of their supply chain than any other, and cost uncertainty is the most common concern about suppliers (cited by 48 percent). Regarding your supply chain as a whole, which of the following are the most important attributes? Cost 66% Quality 57% Reliability 49% Flexibility 41% Access to technology/R&D 16% Working with companies where trust has been developed 14% Access to talent 11% Proximity to final manufacturing or assembly plant 10% Ability to co-create on new products orcomponents for products 9% Other 2% Don’t know 1% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Respondents were allowed up to three selections Source: KPMG International, 2010 In considering your supplier relationships, which of the following are currently your company’s biggest concerns, and which do you expect to be most important in the next two years? 40%Labor cost 36% Cost uncertainties 48% 44%(transport/fuel costs, currency fluctuations, etc) 39%Supplier ability to deliver according to contract 26% 46%Quality 42% Distance of supplier from location of next stage 16% 23%in supply chain/end consumer 22%IP protection 26% 21%Responsiveness 18% Reliability of transportationroute/predictability of 12% 17%travel time Rule of law/return of goods/contract enforcement 9% 12%issues 7%Tax issues 14% 10%Supplier suddenly closes down 11% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Top concerns today Top concerns next 2 years Respondents were allowed up to three selections. Source: KPMG International, 2010 8 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING OUTLOOK
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