It appears that supply is sufficient for the five years forecasted, but only if current conditions persist. Three situations must be carefully watched. •Market demand for short-haul, class A drivers increasing •Retirement turnover increasing •Gen Y participation rates stagnating or weakening
The above chart depicts the percent change in workforce demand from 2005 to 2009 . It shows the workforce demand rate used in the Strawman forecast on slide one, of 0.88%, annually (light blue band, above), by historical standards, is very low. While this workforce growth rate is representative of the current economic cycle, it is likely to increase during the forecasted period.. A change in demand to an annual growth rate of as much as 4% as experienced in 2005 and 2007 (red band) seems likely and could trigger supply shortages for employers.
24% of the drivers in the forecast are age 55 or older. This percentage is significantly greater than the US labor market for workers with high school diplomas or less. At present, the recession has caused many to delay retirement, and because of this, the Strawman forecast doesn’t account for retirements in its initial projection.
Gen Y Participation Rate 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan Apr -06-06
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Workforce Intelligence Generation Y Participation Rate Weakening
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The percentage of Generation Y workers with Class A licenses is a concern. While the graph depicts more are entering the occupation each year, (red line) the level remains below the total Gen Y workforce participation rate for all occupations (blue line). Failing to address a lower Gen Y participation rate will eventually result in a critical supply gap for employers.
Taking into consideration a 4% workforce demand rate, conservative retirement estimates for worker departures, continued low Gen Y participation rates, and other supply components that complete the model, the probable forecast is the emergence of a national supply gap within three years.
The 5-Year forecasted supply gap of 12% is a national estimate. What this means for executives is that some areas of the country will experience gaps less than 12% and others will see gaps up to twice the national estimate. Areas of the country that are at a higher risk of a supply gap greater than 12% are highlighted in the above map.
Increase the supply of internal candidates qualified for a power plant shift supervisor position by constituting a development program focused on rapidly preparing the next generation of power plant shift supervisors from a pool of qualified high-performing workers in similar disciplines, like maintenance.
Position opportunities with specific demographic segments Improve candidate attraction by positioning the organization and its employment opportunity with specific demographic segments such as retirees, and other external qualified workers.
Recommendations
Slow retirements and turnover
S lo w t he r a te o f chu r n w it h pr o gr a m s t ha t r e ta in w o r ke r s
Link talent supply chain to supply sources
Createanen-dto-endtruckdrivertalentsupplyc hain with links to e xte r nal s u pply s o u r c e s like tr ade pr o gr ams , dr ive r s in o the r s e c to r s who c o u ld e as ily be r e tr aine d and r e tir e e s lo o king to reengage an employer
Align culture to future workforce
Strengthen attraction and retention by aligning Strengthen employee engagement characteristics of the organization's culture to Refocusemployeeengagementprogramatwhaeyattributesofthefutureworkforce from “soft savings” to tangible results by aligning program to truck driver attraction, retention and productivity metrics
ors
Contact Eric Seubert Managing Principal (937) 239-0988 eseubert@talentstrategyadvisors.com
About Talent Strategy Advisors
Talent Strategy Advisors is an internationally recognized workforce and talent management organization. Talent Strategy Advisors combines unparalleled labor market expertise, comprehensive talent management frameworks and timely research to help clients attract, develop, retain and engage critical position employees.