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Wheat Comment 10-26-09

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Wheat Morning Update & Commentary Despite the negative finish to the day, wheat continues to look positive on the weekly charts. Planting issues and increased rain across the Ohio River valley have Chicago up 1 percent in overnight trade. Philippine feed makers bought a total of 133,000 mt of feed wheat, Black Sea origin for $210 per tonne CIF. Bangladesh, and Iraq remain around the market for wheat. As a response to low cash prices, Russia announced that it will begin a grain intervention program starting on November 2nd. Basis values remain flat, despite the 10 percent rally in wheat futures. SRW Basis remains burdened by a full pipeline. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the market. PNW pipeline remains full. 2009 Soft Wheat production in Italy was estimated at 3.27 mln mt up from the prior estimate of 2.95 mln mt. Australia's western wheat belt should continue to see beneficial rains, however dry weather and high temps across grain belts in Argentina continue to stress crops. Friday's trade establishes a high for the time being. Look to sell flat prices rallies, covering shorts in the $5.30 area. Buying KC Selling Chicago at even money or better remains a trade. Overnight markets had fairly active trade with Chicago trading 3907 contracts. Chicago closed up 5 1/2 cents. Kansas City finished overnight trade up 6 cents and MPLS closed up 6 3/4 cents. Kansas City/Chicago spread is now trading at 2 1/4 in the DEC. The MPLS ...
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http://www.linngroup.com
Page 1 of 2
312.896.2001
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be
reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for
informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates
may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wheat Morning Update & Commentary
Despite the negative finish to the day, wheat continues to look positive on the weekly charts. Planting
issues and increased rain across the Ohio River valley have Chicago up 1 percent in overnight trade.
Philippine feed makers bought a total of 133,000 mt of feed wheat, Black Sea origin for $210 per tonne
CIF. Bangladesh, and Iraq remain around the market for wheat. As a response to low cash prices, Russia
announced that it will begin a grain intervention program starting on November 2nd.
Basis values
remain flat, despite the 10 percent rally in wheat futures. SRW Basis remains burdened by a full
pipeline. HRW has firmed as more buyers seem to be stepping into the market. PNW pipeline remains
full. 2009 Soft Wheat production in Italy was estimated at 3.27 mln mt up from the prior estimate of
2.95 mln mt. Australia's western wheat belt should continue to see beneficial rains, however dry weather
and high temps across grain belts in Argentina continue to stress crops.
Friday's trade establishes a high for the time being. Look to sell flat prices rallies, covering shorts in the
$5.30 area. Buying KC Selling Chicago at even money or better remains a trade.
Overnight markets had fairly active trade with Chicago trading 3907 contracts. Chicago closed up 5 1/2
cents. Kansas City finished overnight trade up 6 cents and MPLS closed up 6 3/4 cents. Kansas
City/Chicago spread is now trading at 2 1/4 in the DEC. The MPLS/Chicago spread is back out to 14 1/4
cents. Euronext (Matif) Milling Wheat continues to gain with a last trade at $5.35/bu USD in the Nov.
Globex Overnight
Contract
Last
Net Change
High Low
Volume
ZWZ9
553^2 5^4
559^6 542^4 3907
ZWH10
572^0 5^2
577^6 561^6 443
ZWK10
581^2 2^2
584^4 581^2 20
ZWN10
594^0 4^6
599^4 585^4 145
KEZ9
555^4 6^0
563^0 545^6 514
KEH10
572^0 6^0
572^6 562^4 36
MWEZ9
567^4 6^6
569^4 558^4 166
MWEH10
582^4 4^4
586^0 576^0 6
Early Opening Calls: 3-5 cents better
Top News
-- 133,000 mt of Ukraine feed grade Wheat was bought by the Philippine feed makers on Monday for a
reported price of $210/mt, acc. to traders in the region
-- 2009 Soft Wheat production in Italy was estimated at 3.27 mln mt up from the prior estimate of 2.95
mln mt, acc. to Italy's Istat
-- 2009 Durum Wheat production in Italy was lowered to 4.11 mln mt down from the prior estimate of
4.14 mln mt, acc. to Italy's Istat
http://www.linngroup.com
Page 2 of 2
312.896.2001
Reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this information is strictly prohibited without the written permission of the Linn group, inc. the information reflected herein is derived from sources believed to be
reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. this material and any view expressed herein are provided for
informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell commodity futures or options contracts. The Linn group and its officers, directors, employees and affiliates
may take positions for their own accounts in contracts referred to herein. Trading futures involves risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
-- Pending Tender: Oct 26th is bid deadline for 100,000 mt plus Wheat tender floated by Iraq's Grain
Board on Tuesday, acc. to their website.
-- Pending Tender: Japan's Ag Ministry also floated Oct 29th SBS tender for 52,200 mt of food grade
Wheat
-- Pending Tender: 60,000 mt of optional origin Wheat is sought by Bangladesh's gov't in a November
16th tender deadline
-- Pending Tender: A new 100,000 mt of Wheat tender for Dec 2nd was issued by Bangladesh state run
grainary, acc. to traders
-- Liffe Nov milling wheat futures were off -0.50 euro at 131.50 euros/mt.
-- Globex Wheat Vol. 109,909; Pit Vol. 7,140; Open Interest Change: + 1,262
-- Weather: 6-10 day Forecast: Below Normal Temps. Normal to Above Precip.
-- Outside markets: Energy Complex -0.40 at $80.10; Gold & Silver: -2.4 at $1054.0 & -0.053 at
$17.670; US $ -0.070 at $75.530
Cash Markets
CIF SR Wheat steady:: Oct. -10 to -?? Nov. -5 to +10 Dec. Opt. to +15
John Christopher
Linn Group
312.896.2061