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A fuzzy multi-attribute decision making approach for
the identification of the key sectors of an economy:
The case of Indonesia


Von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der
Rheinisch-Westfälischen Technischen Hochschule Aachen
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der
Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften genehmigte Dissertation



vorgelegt von

Master of Science
Sudaryanto
aus Gunung Kidul, Indonesien



Berichter: Univ.-Prof. Dr.rer.nat.habil. Hans-Jürgen Sebastian
Univ.-Prof. Dr.rer.pol. Dr.rer.nat. Werner Gocht

Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 4. Juni 2003

Diese Dissertation ist auf den Internetseiten
der Hochschulbibliothek online verfügbar
























Gedruckt mit Unterstützung des Deutschen Akademischen
Austauschdienstes A fuzzy multi-attribute decision making approach for
the identification of the key sectors of an economy:
The case of Indonesia


Von der Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften der
Rheinisch-Westfälischen Technischen Hochschule Aachen
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der
Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften genehmigte Dissertation



vorgelegt von

Master of Science
Sudaryanto
aus Gunung Kidul, Indonesien



Berichter: Univ.-Prof. Dr.rer.nat.habil. Hans-Jürgen Sebastian
Univ.-Prof. Dr.rer.pol. Dr.rer.nat. Werner Gocht

Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 4. Juni 2003

Diese Dissertation ist auf den Internetseiten
der Hochschulbibliothek online verfügbar iiACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to express my appreciation to my doctoral father, Prof. Dr. Hans-
Jürgen Sebastian from the Lehr- und Forschungsgebiet Operations Research
and Logistic Management, Department of Operations Research, Aachen
University of Technology (RWTH-Aachen), for his institutional support,
guidance and consistent concern in supervising me while I was completing
this dissertation. I also wish to express my deep gratitude to Prof. Dr. Dr.
Werner Gocht for serving as co-referent, for his valuable advice, his
suggestions for improvement and for his willingness to supply me with useful
data. Genuine thanks also to Professor Dr. Dr. h.c. Hans-Jürgen Zimmerman,
who has opened up my perspective on and my inspiration for the fuzzy world,
and for his critical comments and suggestions, made mainly during the early
formulation of this work.

I greatly appreciate the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD) for
providing financial support in the form of a research scholarship while pursuing
the doctoral program at the Department for Operations Research, RWTH
Aachen University, Germany. I also want to thank Gunadarma University,
which gave me the opportunity to study and to develop my professionalism and
maturity in my research work

I am always thankful to my wife, Kiayati Yusriyah, for her love, patience,
continual prayer and never-ending encouragement during my entire doctoral
research. I also dedicate this work to my beloved sons, Salman Al Farisi and
Fauzan Helmi, who serve to be my greatest inspiration and love.


Aachen, June 2003 Sudaryanto
iii
ivTABLE OF CONTENTS


Acknowledgments ……………………………………………………..…. iii
Table of Contents …………………………………………..…... v
List of Tables …………………………………………………………..….. xi
List of Figures ………………………………………………………….… xiii
List of Appendices ………………………………………………..………. xv

1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Background and Statement of the Problem ………………………….. 1
1.2 Objectives of the Study ……………………………………………… 5
1.3 Organization of the Study …………………………………………… 6

2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 11
2.1 The Stages of Economic Development …………………………….. 11
2.1.1 The Traditional Society ……………………………………..... 13
2.1.2 Preconditions for Take-off ………………………………..….. 14
2.1.3 The Take-off into Sustained Growth ……………………….. 15
2.1.4 The Drive to Maturity ………………………………………… 16
2.1.5 The Age of High Mass Consumption ………………………... 17
2.2 General Characteristics and the Common Problems of Developing
Countries …………………………………………………………… 17
2.2.1 General Characteristics of Developing Countries …………..... 17
2.2.2 The Common Problems of Developing Countries ………..…. 19
2.3 The Strategy of Economic Development ………………………….. 24
2.3.1 Balanced Growth Strategy …………………………………… 26
2.3.2 Unbalanced Growth Strategy ………………………………… 32
v 2.3.3 Development Strategy of A Dual Economy ……………….... 35
2.4 The Challenges of Economic Development to Developing
Countries …………………………………………………………... 40

3 INTERSECTORAL LINKAGES, KEY SECTORS OF AN
ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 49
3.1 The Basic Concept of Intersectoral Linkages: An Input-Output
Approach ……………………………………………………….…... 49
3.2 The Concept of Key Sectors and Development Strategy ……….….. 55
3.3 Measurement of Linkages and the Identification of Key Sectors ….. 59
3.4 The Existing Methods for the Identification of the Key Sectors
of an Economy ……………………………………………………… 62
3.4.1 The Measurement of Direct Linkages ………………………... 64
3.4.2 The Measurement of Direct and Indirect Linkages …...……… 65
3.4.3 Alternative Sector Extraction ………………………………... 70
3.4.4 The Total Linkages …………………………………………… 72
3.5 Empirical Identifications of the Key Sectors of an Economy …...…. 75
3.6 The Limitations of the Existing Methods for Key Sector
Identification ……………………………………………………….. 79

4 FUZZY SET THEORY 91
4.1 Introduction …………………………………………………...…… 91
4.2 Basic Definition of Fuzzy Sets ……………………………………. 92
4.3 Basic Operations of …………………………………… 94
4.3.1 Intersection of Fuzzy Sets ………………………………….. 95
4.3.2 Union of Fuzzy Sets ………………………………………… 95
4.3.3 Complement of Fuzzy Sets …………………………………. 96
4.4 The Extension Principle and Extended Operations for
vi

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