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Distributive Impacts of Global Climate Change Mitigation. Effects of Technology, Emission Permit Allocation and Energy Trade [Elektronische Ressource] / Bernhard Michael Lüken. Betreuer: Ottmar Edenhofer

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314 pages
Distributive Impacts of Global Climate ChangeMitigationEffects of Technology, Emission Permit Allocation and Energy Tradevorgelegt vonDiplom-PhysikerBernhard Michael Lükenaus KasselVon der Fakultät VI – Planen Bauen Umweltder Technischen Universität Berlinzur Erlangung des akademischen GradesDoktor der WirtschaftswissenschaftenDr. rer. oec.genehmigte DissertationPromotionsausschuss:Prof. Dr. Volkmar Hartje (Vorsitz)Prof. Dr. Ottmar EdenhoferProf. Dr. Christian von HirschhausenTag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 27.6.2011Berlin 2011D 83FürmeineElternundfürValeriaContentsSummary 91 Introduction 111.1 Motivation 111.1.1 The Distributive Dimension of Climate Policy 121.1.2 The Perspective and Method of this Thesis 141.1.3 Distributive Effects of Climate Change Mitigation 151.1.4 Trade Effects as a Distribution of Rents 181.2 Objectives and Research Questions 191.2.1 Objective with Regard to Climate Policy (Objective A) 191.2.2 Objective with Regard to Methodology (Objective B) 201.3 The Modeling Framework REMIND 211.4 Outline of the Thesis 232 Low-Carbon Technologies and Global Mitigation Costs 272.1 Introduction 302.2 The ReMIND Model 352.2.1 Overview 352.2.2 The Macroeconomic Growth Model 382.2.3 The Energy System Model 402.3 Scenarios and Results 422.3.1 The Business-as-Usual Scenario 442.3.2 Policy Scenarios 462.4 Discussion and Further Research 522.5 References 562.
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Distributive Impacts of Global Climate Change
Mitigation
Effects of Technology, Emission Permit Allocation and Energy Trade
vorgelegt von
Diplom-Physiker
Bernhard Michael Lüken
aus Kassel
Von der Fakultät VI – Planen Bauen Umwelt
der Technischen Universität Berlin
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades
Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaften
Dr. rer. oec.
genehmigte Dissertation
Promotionsausschuss:
Prof. Dr. Volkmar Hartje (Vorsitz)
Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer
Prof. Dr. Christian von Hirschhausen
Tag der wissenschaftlichen Aussprache: 27.6.2011
Berlin 2011
D 83FürmeineEltern
und
fürValeriaContents
Summary 9
1 Introduction 11
1.1 Motivation 11
1.1.1 The Distributive Dimension of Climate Policy 12
1.1.2 The Perspective and Method of this Thesis 14
1.1.3 Distributive Effects of Climate Change Mitigation 15
1.1.4 Trade Effects as a Distribution of Rents 18
1.2 Objectives and Research Questions 19
1.2.1 Objective with Regard to Climate Policy (Objective A) 19
1.2.2 Objective with Regard to Methodology (Objective B) 20
1.3 The Modeling Framework REMIND 21
1.4 Outline of the Thesis 23
2 Low-Carbon Technologies and Global Mitigation Costs 27
2.1 Introduction 30
2.2 The ReMIND Model 35
2.2.1 Overview 35
2.2.2 The Macroeconomic Growth Model 38
2.2.3 The Energy System Model 40
2.3 Scenarios and Results 42
2.3.1 The Business-as-Usual Scenario 44
2.3.2 Policy Scenarios 46
2.4 Discussion and Further Research 52
2.5 References 56
2.6 Appendix 59
56 Contents
3 Low-Carbon Technologies, Trade and Regional Mitigation Costs 69
3.1 Introduction 71
3.2 Model Description REMIND-R 73
3.2.1 Macro-economy Module 74
3.2.2 Energy System Module 77
3.3 Reference Scenarios 81
3.4 Technology 86
3.5 Trade Impacts 90
3.6 Conclusions 95
3.7 References 96
4 The Role of Technological Availability for the Distributive Impacts of Climate
Change Mitigation Policy 99
4.1 Introduction 102
4.2 The Model REMIND-R 106
4.3 Economic Decomposition Method 111
4.4 Scenarios 113
4.5 Results 115
4.5.1 Characteristics of the Technology Scenarios 115
4.5.2 Domestic and Energy Trade Effects on Regional Consumption
Losses 120
4.5.3 Permit Trade Effects on Regional Consumption Losses 125
4.6 Discussion and Conclusions 129
4.7 References 132
4.8 Appendix 138Contents 7
5 The Impact of Trade Costs on Energy Trade 145
5.1 Introduction 147
5.2 The Model REMIND-R 149
5.3 Representation and Paramterization of Trade Costs 151
5.4 Scenarios 155
5.5 Results 156
5.5.1 Trade effects on regional mitigation costs 156
5.5.2 Fossil energy trade flows 159
5.5.3 Effects on the demand for primary energy 164
5.6 Conclusions 167
5.7 References 170
6 Electricity Trade among World Regions 175
6.1 Introduction 178
6.2 The Analytical Model 180
6.2.1 Foreign Exports Resources 183
6.2.2 Foreign and Third Export Resources 187
6.3 The ReMIND Model 188
6.4 Long Distance Electricity Transmissions 191
6.4.1 Techno-Economic Assessment 192
6.4.2 Institutional Setting 193
6.5 Scenarios and Research Questions 194
6.6 Results 195
6.7 Discussion and Conclusions 199
6.8 Appendix: Analytical proof for a maximum ofG 200f
6.9 References 201
7 Synthesis and Outlook 203
7.1 Synthesis: New Insights into the Distributive Impacts of Mitigation 204
7.2 Results and Discussion along the Research Questions 206
7.3 Outlook on Future Research 2118 Contents
Appendix 215
8 Robust options for decarbonisation 215
8.1 Projected energy demand and associated business-as-usual greenhouse
gas emissions 218
8.2 The threat of global climate change: avoiding the unmanageable 219
8.3 Energy efficiency improvement: necessary but not sufficient 221
8.4 Innovative low-carbon technologies 223
8.5 Low-concentration stabilization scenarios 226
8.6 Creating a novel global energy system: the challenge ahead 229
8.7 References 231
9 A Global Carbon Market and the Allocation of Emission Rights 233
9.1 Introduction 236
9.2 Establishing an International Emissions Trading Scheme 237
9.3 Distributional aspects of climate policy 238
9.3.1 The REMIND model 239
9.3.2 Allocation of emission rights 240
9.3.3 Effect on regional mitigation costs 242
9.4 Ethical evaluation of allocation schemes 246
9.5 Institutional requirements for a global ETS 252
9.6 References 254
Statement of Contribution 257
REMIND - Technical Documentation 259
Documentation of The Economic Decomposition Method 291
Acknowledgements 297
Bibliography 298Summary
This thesis analyzes the impacts of a stringent limitation of global carbon dioxide emis-
sions on the welfare of world regions. A stringent emission target leads to a significant
redistribution of welfare among world regions due to a devaluation of resource rents and
to the distribution of a climate rent among the participants of a global emission trading
system. The redistribution implies different mitigation costs for world regions.
Previous studies have pointed out the central role of three dimensions for regional mitiga-
tion costs: The availability of low-carbon technologies in the energy sector, international
trade with fossil energy carriers, and the initial allocation of emission allowances in a
global emission trading system. However, the relevance of individual factors has so far
been discussed only qualitatively.
The novelty of this thesis lies in the approach to analyze the three dimensions of tech-
nology, initial allocation of emission allowances and energy trade as well as their interre-
lations in a comprehensive framework. The thesis uses the method to analyze scenarios
in the model REMIND. REMIND describes relevant dynamic processes of the macro-
economy and the energy system that are influenced by a global emission target in a long-
term multiregional perspective. Furthermore, a novel decomposition method in applied to
quantify different influence factors on regional mitigation costs.
The core result of the thesis are as follows:
The availability of a broad portfolio of low-carbon technologies keeps global CO prices2
low. It reduces global mitigation costs and - generally - also regional costs of mitigation.
However, some regions benefit from restrictions on low-carbon technologies in particular
cases. A devaluation of coal and oil endowments contributes to relatively high mitigation
costs of major export regions. To the contrary, the exporters of natural gas and uranium
profit from a revaluation of their endowments. The determination of trade-related effects
on regional mitigation costs is improved substantially by the consideration of trade costs
in the model. The trade with emission allowances acts as a pure redistribution among
regions - under the assumptions made in this thesis. The negotiable choice of an initial
allocation scheme can modify regional costs substantially.
Interrelations among the three dimensions play a crucial role for the distributive impacts
of mitigation. A low CO -price reduces the monetary equivalents of tradable emission2
permits, so that a variation of the initial permit allocation scheme has a lower redistribu-
tive impact. Furthermore, the availability of low-carbon technologies can alter the pref-
erence order of regions for permit allocation schemes and influences the size of energy
trade effects. Finally, technologies can take the role to render a new trade flow possible.
910 Summary
The example of an interregional electricity transmission technology shows that additional
trade options bear the potential to reduce global and regional mitigation costs.
Important conclusions for climate policy can be drawn from the results. Climate policy
could benefit from paying more attention to the relevance of the technology dimension
as it provides a chance to ease political negotiations on the distribution of mitigation
costs. Furthermore, international negotiations should take regional mitigation costs more
than before into account when defining national emission targets, as regional mitigation
costs are the key variable that expresses each nation’s burden to participate in the global
mitigation effort. The results in this thesis might provide helpful advice by allowing to
distinguish negotiable and un-negotiable parts of the costs.