On the design of the international climate policy regime [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Sven Bode

Informations

• Publié par: universitat_hamburg
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2004
• Nombre de lectures: 12
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

On the Design of the International Climate Policy Regime



Dissertation

zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades
der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften
(Dr. rer. pol.)

des Fachbereiches Wirtschaftswissenschaften
der Universität Hamburg


vorgelegt von

Diplom Wirtschaftsingenieur
Sven Bode
aus Hamburg



Hamburg, 18. Mai 2004


Mitglieder der Promotionskommission
Vorsitzender: Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Pfähler
Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Thomas Straubhaar
Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Heiner Hautau


Das wissenschaftliche Gespräch fand am 29. 10. 2004 statt.

Acknowledgement

I would like to express my gratitude to everyone who supported me so that I could
complete this work. In the first place, thanks are due to the senior researchers who
supervised me. To Thomas Straubhaar, Carsten Hefeker and Axel Michaelowa -
all affiliated with the Hamburg Institute of International Economics. Without the
intensive discussions we had I would not have been able to progress the way I did.
My colleagues at the Department of World Economy contributed in a similar way.

Acknowledgements are also due to a number of PhD-students from all over
Europe who came (and still come9 together in a series of PhD-workshops on
climate policy. The sharing of the ups and downs during the time of research and
the discussions on various issues inspired not only my work but also helped to
improve my awareness and understanding of the complexity of international
climate policy.

I will be failing if I do not thank my family - and my parents in particular - for
making this thesis possible. It is the result of their continuous support and their
understanding for whatever I plan to do - for already thirty years now.


I
Abstract
As a consequence of the increasing awareness of anthropogenic climate change
and its impacts, the international community agreed to take action to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions. This action is organised through the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol.
Though a number of implementation rules as for example the Marrakech Accords
exist, there are still a lot of open questions that need to be answered. Against this
background this dissertation thesis focuses on selected issues which all involve
the concept of emissions trading.
Regarding projects under the so-called Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) it
is analysed how the required baseline should be set and how the investment
additionality concept must be applied in order not to provide undesirable
incentives for renewable energy project developers to invest at unattractive sites.
Such an investment behaviour would result in an inefficient climate policy regime
from the macro-economic perspective. It is proposed to calculate emission
reductions on the basis of physical electricity grids, regardless of their
geographical extension, and not on the basis of any national emission data.
Furthermore, a fuzzy investment additionality threshold is introduced which can
weaken the undesirable incentives mentioned above.
These CDM-projects can be undertaken in developing countries, which, unlike
industrialised countries, do not have a binding emission target. However, in order
to meet the long-term target of a stabilisation of the atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentration as defined in Art. 2 of the UNFCCC, sooner or later all countries
must accept such a target. This is why a global burden sharing rule regarding the
allocation of greenhouse gas emission (GHG) entitlements is proposed that
combines the two justice principles responsibility and equity of rights. The new
approach also allows for flexibility regarding the timing of accepting an absolute
emission target. Such flexibility may help to increase the acceptance of a global
burden sharing scheme by Parties which are currently hesitant with respect to the
II
ratification of a global climate agreement. As burden sharing is not only an issue
between developing and industrialised countries, different rules and their
implications are studied for the member states of the enlarged European Union,
too. It turns out that, with regard to the four different options studied, much is at
stake single member, especially for Eastern European countries. This may
complicate the negotiations on the burden sharing after 2012 in Brussels. As GHG
emissions from international maritime transportation are currently also uncapped,
options for limiting emissions from this sector are also studied. A “wet-CDM” is
proposed as an initial step to cost-efficiently curb these emissions.
Finally, the implications of different methods of allocating emission entitlements
free of charge in multi-period emissions trading schemes are analysed. The
electricity sector, which is a major source of GHG emissions, is studied as an
example. It turns out that the implications strongly depend on the fuel used and
the price of emission allowances on the market.
The results of this study are of interest for different stakeholders involved in
climate policy such as policy makers, environmental NGOs and industry which is
often direct subject of environmental legislation.
III
Contents
Abstract 1
Contents III
List of Abbreviations IV
List of Figures V
List of Tables VI
Chapter 1
Sven Bode
Climate Change and the International Climate Policy Regime 1
Chapter 2
Sven Bode & Axel Michaelowa
Avoiding Perverse Effects of Baseline and Investment
Additionality Determination in the Case of Renewable Energy Projects 12
Chapter 3
Sven Bode
Equal Emissions per Capita over Time - A Proposal to Combine
Responsibility and Equity of Rights 44
Chapter 4
Sven Bode
European Climate Policy: Burden Sharing after 2012 77
Chapter 5
Sven Bode, Jürgen Isensee, Karsten Krause & Axel Michaelowa
Climate Policy: Analysis of Ecological, Technical and Economic
Implications for International Maritime Transport 113
Chapter 6
Sven Bode
Multi-Period Emissions Trading in the Electricity Sector -
Winners and Losers 143
Chapter 7
Sven Bode
Conclusion 172
References 180
Annex 194

IV
List of Abbreviations
AA Assigned Amount
AAU Assigned Amount Unit
AGBM Ad Hoc Group of the Berlin Mandate
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CER Certified Emission Reduction
CGE Computable General Equilibrium
CoP Conference of Parties
EEC Equal Emissions per Capita
EECT Equal Emissions per Capita over Time
EPC Emissions per Capita
EU European Union
FCCC Framework Convention on Climate Change
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GNI Gross National Income
GWP Global Warming Potential
IA Investment Additionality
IMO International Maritime Organisation
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IRR Internal Rate of Return
KRK Klimarahmenkonvention
LULUCF Land-Use Land-Use-Change Forestry
MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee
MS Member State
NGO Non Governmental Organisation
ODA Official Development Aid
RE Renewable Energies
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
US United States


V
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Schematic depiction of the greenhouse effect 9
Figure 2.1 Schematic graph of quantification of emission reductions 16
Figure 2.2 Important baseline methodologies 17
Figure 2.3 Common structure of electricity grids in and between two countries 18
Figure 2.4 Granting of CERs and change of attractiveness of a project 21
Figure 2.5 Over-crediting of unattractive RE-projects 26
Figure 2.6 Development of NOx prices in the US-Reclaim programme (SCAQMD 2001) 35
Figure 2.7 Fuzzy Investment Additionality Threshold 37
Figure A 2.1 Mediterranean electric networks 42
Figure A 2.2 Physical electricity exchanges within UTCE 43
Figure 3.1 General understanding of the path to equal per capita emissions 56
Figure 3.2 Schematic depiction of the path for equal emission per capita over time 58
Figure 3.3 Quantification of allowable average emissions per capita over time 60
Figure 3.4 (Assigned) Emissions per capita (CO from fuel combustion) 2
with non-Annex-I incl. US taking on an absolute emission budget in 2022 62
Figure 3.5 Emissions and assigned amount (CO from fuel combustion) with 2
non-Annex-I incl. US taking on an absolute emission budget in 2022 63
Figure 3.6 Emissions (prognosis) and assigned amount as a function of timing of
contributing to mitigation efforts in the case of Qatar 67
Figure 3.7 Emission (prognosis) and assigned amount as a function of timing of
contributing to mitigation efforts in the case of India 67
Figure A 3.1 Population development as assumed for the numerical example 73
Figure 4.1 Schematic representation of a) converging emissions per capita and b) equal
emissions over time 93
Figure 4.2