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Department of Environmental Protection Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals Maine Department of Environmental Protection 17 State House Station Augusta, Maine 04333-0017 January 2010 Contact: David Littell, Maine DEP 207-287-2812 - 1 - Department of Environmental Protection Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 February 1, 2010 Senator Seth A. Goodall, Co-Chair Representative Robert S. Duchesne, Co-Chair Members of the Natural Resources Committee State House Room 214 A Augusta, ME 04333 RE: Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals Dear Senator Goodall, Representative Duchesne, and members of the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources, In 2003, the Legislature established greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals for 2010, 2020, and beyond (38 M.R.S.A. §576). The Maine Department of Environmental Protection (the Department) is submitting this report to the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources pursuant to 38 M.R.S.A. §578, which requires the Department to evaluate the State's progress towards meeting those reduction goals, and submit a report every two years from 2006 and thereafter. This report summarizes the findings of the Department’s first preliminary ...
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    Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals       Maine Department of Environmental Protection 17 State House Station Augusta, Maine 04333-0017   January 2010     Contact: David Littell, Maine DEP 207-287-2812
Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 
     February 1, 2010  Senator Seth A. Goodall, Co-Chair Representative Robert S. Duchesne, Co-Chair Members of the Natural Resources Committee State House Room 214 A Augusta, ME 04333  RE:Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals   Dear Senator Goodall, Representative Duchesne, and members of the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources,  In 2003, the Legislature established greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals for 2010, 2020, and beyond (38 M.R.S.A. §576). The Maine Department of Environmental Protection (the Department) is submitting this report to the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources pursuant to 38 M.R.S.A. §578, which requires the Department to evaluate the State's progress towards meeting those reduction goals, and submit a report every two years from 2006 and thereafter.  This report summarizes the findings of the Department’s first preliminary quantitative evaluation of Maine’s progress towards meeting statutory greenhouse gas goals since the development of the original Climate Action Plan in 2004. The methods and processes we used to chart our progress were similar to the previous Plan with some notable exceptions, including the fact that our work was done “in-house” versus the previous use of consultants and an external stakeholder process.  I am pleased to report that Maine is on track to meet the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2010. The report contains our findings and observed trends, a description of initiatives in place or underway, including regional and national efforts.  I will be happy to present the report to the Committee at your convenience.    Sincerely,     David Littell Commissioner     
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 Report to the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources 2nd Session of the 124thMaine Legislature  
Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals  
    Executive Summary  With thisThird Biennial Report on Progress, the Department of Environmental Protection reports that Maine is on track to meet the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2010. Gross statewide GHG emissions increased from 1990 until a peak in 2003, and have steadily declined since. Highlights of the Department’s analysis include:  of GHG emissions in Maine are the result of energy consumption, largelyThe vast majority produced by combustion of petroleum products.  Petroleum consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions have declined.  The largest contributing sector is transportation.  Vehicle miles travelled have continued to increase, but improvements in fuel efficiency have resulted in declining transportation emissions.  Maine consisted primarily of nuclear, hydro and petroleum-basedElectrical generation in generation during the early 1990’s, and now consists primarily of natural gas, hydro and renewable biomass-based generation with wind power beginning to generate a notable portion of Maine’s electricity.  The Department will continue to gather and evaluate information to determine how past and ongoing strategies have contributed to emission reductions, and what role economic changes may have played. The findings of this more comprehensive analysis will be presented to the Committee in the Department’sFourth Biennial Report on Progress addition to fulfilling. In statutory reporting requirements, the Department intends to institute an annual “top down” greenhouse gas inventory process using EPA’s State Inventory Tool, augmented with a “bottom up” triennial analysis conducted as part of the National Emissions Inventory.  Looking into the future, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, programs and projects funded by the Efficiency Maine Trust, increases in energy efficiency, development of wind and tidal generating capacity, additional regulatory and non-regulatory actions such as new vehicle and fuel standards, fuel switching, and adjustments in consumer behavior are expected to produce further emission reductions. In addition, federal legislation may create a wholly new regulatory framework pertaining to greenhouse gas emissions that could have significant, long-term impacts on emission levels.  
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 I. Introduction  As passed into law and signed by Governor Baldacci in 2003, Maine’s Climate Change statute established greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals for 2010, 2020, and beyond (38 M.R.S.A. §576). The Maine Department of Environmental Protection (the Department) is submitting this Report to the Joint Standing Committee on Natural Resources pursuant to 38 M.R.S.A. §578, which requires the Department to evaluate the State's progress toward meeting those reduction goals and submit a report of its evaluation by January 1, 2006 and by that date every two years thereafter1 addition to evaluating past and current emissions, this Report also looks forward. In to policies and programs, both on-going and envisioned, which will be needed over the next ten years to reach the 2020 goal: a 10% reduction from 1990 emission levels.  The Department’s evaluation conducted in 2009 revealed that total estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Maine increased from 21.26 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalents (MMTCO2e) in 1990 to a peak of 26.37 MMTCO2e in 2003, then declined to almost 1990 levels by 2008 at 21.77 MMTCO2e (See Figure 1).  Figure 1. Gross Emissions
27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20
  The emissions estimates presented here were generated using EPA’s State Inventory Tool (SIT) and are based on Maine-specific energy consumption and production data that are readily available from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA released 2007 data for the state of Maine in August 2009, with national data for 2008 just released at the time of this report. The Department extended the analysis to include 2008 by using national energy trends to estimate 2008 energy consumption in Maine.  The Department will continue evaluating information as it becomes available, and will provide a final evaluation of Maine’s progress toward the 2010 GHG emissions target in the Fourth Biennial Report by January 1, 2012. At that time, energy production and consumption information through 2009 will be available from the EIA and supplemental 2010 state data will                                                  1The Department requested and received an extension of this deadline for the 2010 report until February 1, 2010.
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 be available for point sources, transportation, and other sectors. The Fourth Biennial Report will also include a full assessment of the mitigation programs and policies implemented since 2005, with recommendations for both future actions and reduction targets.   II. Methodologies  EPA’s State Inventory Tool  The State Inventory Tool (SIT) is an Excel-based tool that uses methods from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the U.S. National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. EPA developed the SIT to enable states to apply a comprehensive, standardized approach to estimating GHG emissions, while also providing flexibility to input state-specific data when available. The SIT estimates carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions of six greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).  The tool estimates greenhouse gas emissions from the following categories: Agriculture Mobile Combustion   CO2from Fossil Fuel Combustion Natural Gas and Oil  Coal Solid Waste  Industrial Processes Stationary Combustion  Land Use, Land Use Change and Wastewater Forestry   Maine’s 2004 Climate Action Plan  In 2004, the Department and a broad stakeholder group employed EPA’s 2003 version of the SIT, several advanced models and state-specific data to estimate statewide GHG emissions from 1990 to 2020 with and without selected mitigation strategies. The results of those efforts indicated that Maine’s total economy-wide GHG emissions in 1990 were approximately 20 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 estimate e. Thisincluded the assumption that Maine’s forests are net emitters of CO2.  In order to develop strategies to reduce these emissions, the stakeholders were organized into four Working Groups: Transportation and Land Use; Buildings, Facilities, and Manufacturing; Energy and Solid Waste; and Agriculture and Forestry. Each working group developed mitigation options for its sector, with prospective CO2savings in tons and the cost per ton then estimated for each option. The Department and stakeholders then estimated emissions for 1990 to 2020, assuming all mitigation measures were in place for the period 2005-2020. The results indicated that emission reduction goals would be met for both the 2010 and 2020 target years.
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010  Estimating Progress The Department’s 2009 analysis excludes biomass combustion, forest carbon sequestration, and black carbon. The 2004 analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for development of the Climate Action Plan was expensive and complex, and replicating that analysis at this time was not realistic or advisable under current resource constraints. Therefore, during late 2009, the Department’s Bureau of Air Quality (BAQ) staff estimated Maine’s total GHG emissions using the U.S EPA’s SIT and available state-specific information. The Department supplemented default data in the 2008 version of the SIT with information from several sources: GHG emissions for some industrial processes, as reported to the BAQ in accordance with Chapter 137; vehicle miles travelled as calculated by Maine’s Department of Transportation; and newly-released EIA data. Chapter 137 of the Department’s regulations require all stationary sources which are licensed to emit any of eight criteria air pollutants above minimum reporting thresholds to submit annual emissions information to the Department, including estimates of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).  The Department conducted the 2009 analysis only for the period from 1990 through 2008, foregoing further modeling of potential benefits associated with various mitigation measures between now and 2020. Because of the lag in data availability from both federal and state sources, the Department will be able to conduct a more comprehensive estimate of 2010 emissions in late 2011, and to present these results in theFourth Biennial Report of Progressin 2012. The Fourth Report will also present a full assessment of the mitigation programs and policies implemented since 2005, along with updated recommendations for both future actions and reduction targets.  For purposes of this analysis, the Department decided not to include quantitative examination of two issues that contribute to comprehensive estimates of GHG emissions: biomass combustion and the role of forests; and differences between accounting for electrical generation emissions based on generation vs. consumption. The Department also did not include an assessment of the role of black carbon, as was done in the 2004 modeling. Nevertheless, the Department believes that this approach produces conservative (that is, over-estimated) results that can be confidently used to evaluate Maine’s progress toward its GHG emission reduction goals, and intends to address all three issues more fully in the 2012 Fourth Report.  Biomass combustion and the role of Maine’s forests– The SIT does not include biomass combustion as a source of GHG emissions, consistent with both international and national protocols. For this reason, biomass was also not included in the Department’s 2004 emissions estimates. Although it is possible to manually supplement the SIT with biomass emissions data, comprehensive and accurate data is not available. Only industrial sources are required to report biomass combustion data to federal and state agencies, while EIA acquires biomass combustion data from other economic sectors (e.g., residential) by such means as telephone surveys. The Department plans to work
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 within the region and nationally to address these issues of data availability and carbon accounting.  In contrast, and also in accordance with other protocols, the SIT does include a module for “Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry” (LULUCF) that estimates forest-related emissions and sequestration. As previously noted, the 2004 emissions modeling did include this factor. However, the default data in the 2008 version of the SIT result in estimated net emissions from Maine’s forests of over 5.5 MMT annually every year since 1996. These estimates are not supported by Maine-specific data. In fact, annual plot sampling conducted by the Maine Forest Service since 1999 indicates that forestland in Maine has been a net sequester of carbon for the past decade, while continuing to support a vibrant, forest-based economy.  According to the Maine Forest Service, Maine’s millions of acres of forestland already store in excess of 5 billion metric tons of CO2the potential for Maine’s forests toe, and sequester additional CO2is certainly a major variable in the calculation of Maine’s net emissions. However, applying this sequestration component in the SIT can minimize the apparent benefits of activities in other economic sectors and mask the importance of implementing mitigation options.  At the present time, the Department does not believe the data are available to accurately quantify either the emissions contributed from biomass combustion or the sequestration by Maine’s forests. However, preliminary analysis by the Department, based on data from EIA and the Maine Forest Service, indicates that Maine’s forests sequester more than is emitted during combustion. Accordingly, both the LULUCF module and CO2 emissions associated with biomass combustion were omitted from the 2009 analysis because the data, analyses and tools available are not providing a consistent or reliable picture. Accounting for electricity sector emissions– There are two basic approaches to estimating GHG emissions associated with the electricity sector: estimates based on electricity produced within the state and those based on electricity consumed in the state. Both approaches create accounting dilemmas for purposes of determining reductions required and progress being made. The approach applied is determined by the answer to the question: “Who is responsible for the emissions?”  According to both international and US national protocols, the answer is “The one who produces”. Thus the SIT approach incorporatesdata that is production-based rather than consumer-based. However, for a state like Maine where production commonly exceeds demand, production-based accounting may result in an inflated estimate of total emissions for which the state is then held accountable, raising the question: “Why are our mitigation programs paying for the demand from consumers outside our state?”  Since 2000, Maine has generally been a net exporter of electricity into the New England power pool. For this reason, the stakeholders directing the 2004 emissions modeling included an adjustment to reflect consumer decisions, producing a lower emission
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 estimate than if the SIT default approach had been applied. This adjustment was not applied in the Department’s 2009 analysis, with the likely result that emissions estimates for the electricity sector are over-stated.  Black carbon– Black carbon, commonly known as soot, is a substance primarily associated with incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and wood. In Maine, the two primary sources of black carbon are diesel engines and wood-burning equipment. Black carbon is not a GHG, and thus the SIT does not include an option to consider its potential impacts. However, black carbon suspended in the atmosphere and deposited on land surfaces can contribute a warming effect, and the Department’s 2004 emissions modeling addressed this warming potential by evaluating emissions both with and without black carbon impacts. The 2009 analysis did not include this evaluation, although it will be reconsidered for the more comprehensive 2012 Fourth Report. In Maine, black carbon impacts are currently being addressed through requirements for improved efficiencies and control technologies in both diesel engines and wood-burning equipment and lower sulfur, petroleum-based, fuel products.   III. Results of 2009 Evaluation  Economy-wide Maine’s gross GHG emissions in2008 were 21.77 MMTCO2e, compared to the2010 target of 21.26 MMT(See Table 1).  There has been a steady downward trend in total emissions during the past six years, with 2008 emissions over 17% lower than Maine’s emissionspeak of 26.37 MMT in 2003. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Maine’s gross domestic production continued to increase 2 throughout this period , suggesting that emissions reductions were not primarily related to economic activity (see Appendix A).  Table 1.  Emissions (MMTCO2e)  1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Energy 19.77 24.13 23.91 23.55 20.61 20.64 19.47 Industrial Processes 0.36 0.84 0.88 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.97 Agriculture 0.48 0.56 0.60 0.66 0.69 0.69 0.69 Waste 0.65 0.83 0.78 0.83 0.68 0.68 0.63 Gross Emissions 21.26 26.37 26.18 26.00 22.92 22.95 21.77   As previously noted, this estimate of emissions reflects conservative assumptions and does not include the sequestration benefits of Maine’s extensive forestland. Further reductions, as a result                                                  2U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Regional Economic Accounts, Gross Domestic Product by State. www.bea.gov/regional/gsp/  
 
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Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 of the numerous mitigation programs and policies already implemented (discussed in Section IV), can be expected in the future.
Figure 2. 2008 Emissions by Source Category
Energy 90%
Industrial 4% Agriculture 3% Waste 3%
 Energy consumption accounts for roughly 90% of gross GHG emissions every year.  97% of those emissions are CO2from fossil fuel combustion, 84% of which is from petroleum. Since 2003, energy related emissions have declined by 4.6 MMT to below 1990 levels (see Appendices B and C).  Figure 3. 2008 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion CO2 from Fossil Fuel CO2 from Fossil Fuels by Sector by Fuel Type Electric Generation Resid Natural Gas Coal 13% 20 13% 3%
Transportation 45%     
I
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Petroleum 84%
Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 Table 2 below shows that the largest reductions in energy consumption-related emissions were produced by the Electric Generation (2.36 MMT or 49%) and Residential (0.94 MMT or 20%) sectors. In 2008, the two sectors with the largest CO2emissions from fossil fuel combustion were Transportation (45%) and Residential (20%) (see Appendix C). Although the Department did not conduct an economic analysis of the correlation between fuel prices and emissions, a simplistic analysis of fuel pricing information available from the Energy Information Administration did not indicate that prices were an accurate predictor for emissions from those two sectors (see Appendix D).  Table 2. Since 2003, emissions from petroleum combustion MMTCO2 from Fossil Fuel Combustionin all sectors have declined by 3 MMT, while  2003 2008 emissions associated with natural gas combustion Residential 4.74 3.80 Petroleumhave decreased by half that amount.        emissions due to residential combustion declined Coal 0.00 0.0028% from 2004 to 2008, but 2008 levels remain               Petroleum 4.67 3.73 Maine’s perennial dependenceabove those in 1990. on trol                is evident in most sectors exceptpe eum Natural Gas 0.08 0.07electrical generation, which markedly decreased Commercial 2.15 1.89consumption during 2003-2008.         Coal 0.00 0.01Electrical Generation               In 2003 the contribution of electrical generation was Petroleum 1.85 1.52 more than 20% of all CO2emissions from fossil fuel               Natural Gas 0.30 0.36 Duringcombustion; in 2008 it was 13%. that same Industrial 2.49 2.25period, emissions due to petroleum combustion by electrical generators declined 76%; natural gas               Coal 0.29 0.26 reasons for these Theemissions declined 44%.               reductions are believed to be fluctu Petroleum 2.00 1.80geptaniue mrtlotunad ans gal raa secirperroc dndingsponl  fue Natural Gas 0.21 0.18switching, the continuation of milder winters and cooler summers in Maine and New England, Transportation 9.27 8.56economic conditions, and the increased availability               Petroleum 9.22 8.51of renewable energy sources including wind and  biomass.               Natural Gas 0.05 0.04  Electric Generation 4.79 2.43Maine’s stand-alone electrical generators are part of               the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Coal 0.40 0.33They report their CO2emissions to the Department Petroleum 1.05 0.25annually in accordance with Department regulations. Figure 4 below illustrates their               Natural Gas 3.33 1.85emissions since the beginning of the baseline period established by RGGI.  8 --
Department of Environmental Protection  Third Biennial Report on Progress toward Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals February 1, 2010 Figure 4. Maine RGGI Source Annual CO2 Emissions
7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Rumford Power Westbrook Energy Center Casco Bay Energy Verso Bucksport Verso Androscoggin FPL Energy Wyman
 
  Methane and nitrous oxideAlthough energy related emission reductions of these– GHG are orders of magnitude smaller than those associated with CO2from fossil fuels, they are nonetheless significant as indicators of progress toward mitigation goals. Of particular note are emission reductions associated with Mobile Combustion, which includes all gasoline and diesel highway and non-highway sources. Total emissions in 2008 were 47% lower than 1990 and 40% lower than the peak emission year of 2003, due largely to reductions in gasoline highway emissions (see Appendix B).  Other sectors: Industrial processes, Agriculture, Waste Although emission changes in the industrial process, agriculture and waste sectors can be evaluated, they have a relatively insignificant impact on statewide GHG emissions.   Since 2003, small increases of 0.13 MMT each in the Industrial Processes and Agriculture sectors have been largely offset by a reduction in the Waste sector of 0.20 MMT. The Industrial Processes (IP) sector contributes less than 5% of the total economy-wide emissions, in the form of three minor GHG: hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6Maine, the activities that produce these emissions are primarily associated). In with the cement and semi-conductor industries. In contrast to the trend in the Energy sector, estimated emissions from Industrial Processes have steadily increased and are now almost three times greater than the 1990 level. This is due largely to increased production by the semiconductor industry. Cement production has fluctuated from year to year, with notably higher than average production in 2005-2007.  Agricultural emissions are due mostly to enteric fermentation and soils management, contributing 68% and 24% of sector-wide emissions, respectively, in 2008. Emissions from these activities have increased since 1990 due to more than a doubling in the population of horses and goats in the state3, a four-fold increase in the amount of synthetic nitrogen applied for                                                  3Livestock population data provided in EPA’s SIT, obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
 
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