FOREX Perfection In Manual, Automated And Predictive Trading

Mostafa Afshari

Description

From the very beginning and during writing this book one question was always in my mind: "how much this book will benefit the reader?" Finally I organized the book in three parts (Manual, Automated and Predictive Trading) to make sure at least one method solves the problem of Forex trading for the reader. In Manual Trading I have explained the best manual trading strategies and the most probable entry and exit signals. Automated Trading is the next part in which you will learn to develop your own trading ideas and strategies using a super easy, smart, advanced, free and all in one software in no time and make your trading 100% automated. Forex income on autopilot is not a dream anymore. In Predictive Trading, as it appears from the topic, you will learn top methods of next day price prediction. Just imagine how much difference will it make if you know prices of tomorrow in advance! This book is aimed to all retail traders (beginner or experienced), institutional traders, automated and algorithmic trading developers, Forex and financial markets researchers and all people who want to learn about some new possibilities in Forex trading.

Sujets

• Vente
• Online Trading
• Economie gestion
• E-Commerce
• Economics
• Business
• Commerce électronique
• Electronic commerce
• E-commerce
• E-Commerce
• E-Commerce
• E-commerce
• E-Commerce

Informations

• Publié par: eBookIt.com
• Date de parution: 07 août 2018
• Nombre de lectures: 6
• EAN13: 9781456631659
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 17 Mo

Extrait

FOREX Perfection In Manual, Automated And Predictive Trading


MOSTAFA AFSHARI



First Edition
Copyright© 2018 by Mostafa Afshari
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests or sending feedbacks to be published in the next editions please contact the author at [e-mail]


DISCLAIMER
The purpose of this book is mainly informational. The user of this book is the sole responsible for any possible loss that may incur by using the information herein. The author totally declaims such losses.
This book is dedicated to persistent traders all around the world
Introduction
Manual Trading
Automated Trading
Predictive Trading
Chapter One: Trading Signals
1.1 Highly Probable Chart Patterns
1.2 Price Rejection
1.3 Deviation From Mean
1.4 Volume Up And Down Spikes
Chapter Two: Essentials of Manual Trading
2.1 Signal Strength (Accuracy)
2.2 Signal Profitability
2.3 Signal Manageability
Chapter Three: Scheduling A Manual Trade
Chapter Four: Automated Trading Platforms
Chapter Five: Introduction to Automated Trading Strategies
Chapter Six: Developing an Automated Strategy
6.1 Choosing Base Signal
6.2 Choosing Entry And Exit Methods
6.3 Pre-Processing (Smoothing or Filtering) Of Base Signal(s)
6.4 Backtesting, Optimization, Performance Evaluation And Unseen Data (Walk Forward) Testing
6.5 Strategy Diagnosis
Chapter Seven: Demo Trading Hiring A VPS
Chapter Eight: Real Automated Trading
Chapter Nine: Modeling of Forex Time Series
9.1 Types of Forex Data
9.2 Model Execution and Optimization (BCMEM)
Chapter Ten: Prediction Models
10.1 Forex Prediction Using Gaussian Process
10.2 Forex Prediction Using Analytical Functions
10.3 Holy Grail of Forex Prediction
Chapter Eleven: 15 Minutes A Day Trading
Chapter Twelve: Final Advice
Introduction
At first look, doing Forex seems too easy and straightforward but in reality many difficulties emerge. In my opinion, the reason is that Forex is a dynamic system and managing such systems is quite tricky. However, in this book I have tried to provide some qualified, statistically sound solutions to beat this hard to manage system. My solut ions have been organized in three categories: man ual, automated and predictive trading. Traders, according to their habits and trading style can pick one, two or a mix of the methods to finally do Forex as flawless as possible.
Manual Trading
In this chapter I have discussed manual trading around three essential concepts of accuracy, profitability and manageability. Using these concepts I have shown how filter out bad trades and reach handpicked super highly probable trades to execute. The following picture shows an example of this process of high performance trading.

Automated Trading
Thanks to the modern technologies, automated and algorithmic trading is getting m ore popular day by day. In this part of the book, using a super-fast, easy, flexible and advanced free software you will learn how develop viable automated s trategies in just a few days. T he software language is super easy to be learned and you can make use of it in a few days. Moreover, some new thrilling features are added to this software in each release that makes it even more powerful. I highly recommend you don't miss this stunning software and its capabilities. The following picture shows backtest results of a sample strategy that has been developed by this software:


Predictive Trading
One of the biggest difficulties in trading is lack of confidence and certainty to enter a trade. Because you cannot thoroughly analyze historical charts, you are in constant hesitation to enter your expected trades. Imagine you ca n predict next d ay prices (with around 80% accuracy) using mathematical methods and decide to trade according to these predictions. Having this scientific backup gives you big courage and confidence to trade and makes your trade highly creditable. Believe me or not, this almost impossible job has been done in this book and now is ready for you to be used. If your computer skills allow you to just install Python or R (as easy as any other one click installation software), you are there to go. Besides ordinary traders, the m ethods I have explained in this chapter may be useful for finance researchers, institutional traders , algorithmic trading developers and any person who want to learn one or two lessons about modeling financial time series. As a sample, the following pictu re shows prediction of EUR/USD price for 16th November 2017 using a Python package !
Part I. Manual Trading

Chapter One: Trading Signals
Manual, traditional or discretionary trading is the most common type of trading among retail traders. In manual trading the trader monitor financial ( Forex , stocks, indices) charts to find a likely profitable opportunity (signal) and initiates a trade. The decision is taken by the trader according to the probability of winning a trade. No matter how much experience or skill has a trader, he/she needs to carefully analyze the current charts to capture short or l ong signals. S tronger (accurate) the entry signal, more chance of opting into a winning trade. In this chapter I will review the most probable trading signals on Forex charts and show you how combine these signals to enter a highly profitable trade. In chapter two I will discuss three essential criteria that you need to consider before manual entering to any trade.
1. 1 Highly Probable Chart Patterns
Chart patterns are the oldest used signals for trading. The nice thing about chart patterns is that they reproduce themselves repeatedly and their dynamics does not change during the time. In other words, a valid highly probable pattern on today’s chart is as valid as the same pattern ten years ago or ten years later in the future. This constancy has made them bread and butter of every day analysis and they often play an important role in your trading decisions. Below you will find the most probable (profitable) chart patterns from my point of view.
• Wave Forms
Forex prices move as waves. When you look at the charts, you can see waves everywhere and in all timeframes. Price waves have two common types, impulsive and repulsive. Impulsive waves are those that start w ith a sudden price outburst a nd as the price approaches a support or resistance level the waves become less intensive and gradually flatten. Repulsive waves usually come as reaction to impulsive waves, are less intensive, consist of more bars and obviously try to adjust the price. All chart patterns are more or less a complete or partial form of impulsive or repulsive waves.
Waveforms can intuitively be formulated as a logical sequence of bull/bear bars and this way they are fairly predictable. For example you have an alternate wave of 6-1-1-? or 3-1-1-1-1-?. In terms of wave dynamics the first from is called rapid damped and the second form is called slow damped wave. Yellow arrows on all pictures show a possible entry point.





In more than 80% of the times if price acts according to its natural dynamics and noise (such as news release) does not interfere, the waves are predictable and this high predictability make them good candidates to be considered as tradable signals. In the following pictures you can find a sample of various types of waves in all timeframes and their trading potential. Yellow arrow on pictures shows a possible entry point.



• Sandwich Pattern
Sandwich pattern is a special case of rapid damped waveforms with a general sequence of n-1-1-?. In this sequence n can be a row of often 1-6 same bull or bear bars. For example 1-1-1-? Or 3-1-1-? are sandwich patterns. Sandwich pattern is my top favorite trading pattern because it is very probable (more than 80%) and occurs frequently on all timeframes. On the below pictures you can find some examples of sandwich pattern on various charts.