Strategic Foresight

Lustig Patricia

Description

This is a practical guide for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures so organisations can plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight. Then the book considers how to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on the organisation; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in the organisation.

Sujets

• Gestion et management
• Economic forecasting

Informations

• Publié par: Distributed By PublishDrive
• Date de parution: 15 août 2015
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781909470675
• Langue: English

Extrait

Published by: Triarchy Press Axminster, England
[e-mail] www.triarchypress.net
Copyright © Patricia Lustig, 2015
The right of Patricia Lustig to be identified as the athor of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying, electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
All rights reserved
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Print ISBN: 978-1-909470-66-8 ePub ISBN: 978-1-909470-67-5
Further resources for each chapter can be found at: bit.ly/tpSF44
 
“A common boardroom feeling is that never before have we needed ‘more hindsight sooner’. Couple that with the increasingly common feeling that the tried and tested approaches to strategy formulation are no longer enough. They still work – as far as they go – but they need to be supplemented with additional tools for looking ahead further than has become the norm, and with more intellectual rigour. This book shows us a way of doing that.”
Sir David Brown, Engineer and Industrialist
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“Strategic Foresight is not some kind of mystical ability! It is simply the most important set of skills and tools in any leader’s tool set. Tricia Lustig writes about these on the basis of her 35 years of experience in organisations from different sectors, and of all sizes.
Puzzled about things such as paradigms, systems thinking, horizon scanning, and stakeholder engagement? Want to know how to identify exactly where there is energy for change in your organisation, and then how to harness that energy to make change happen? Wonder whether it is possible to develop and implement a strategic plan in view of the discontinuities, vulnerabilities and volatility that is around us? To survive and even flourish in the vastly tangled terrain in which we all live now, here is a simply-written guide.”
Prabhu Guptara, Chairman, Relational Thinking Network, Geneva
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“ Strategic Foresight paves the way to prepare your organization for the future. Every business, government, education, and nonprofit leader should read this book.”
Herb Rubenstein, Lecturer in Strategic Management, UC Denver
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“″If you are the type of leader that finds conventional books on forecasting, planning and development to be more than a little boring, here is a book on strategic foresight that may be just like mind candy for you to read – in large part because of the artful way that Patricia Lustig weaves together a narrative that is rich in ‘war story’ anecdotes, both about others, and about her own rich experiences in different sectors of several cultures. It is definitely about finding and following your ‘bliss’ in the volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) operating environments that all leaders today must increasingly cope with.”
Oliver Markley, Professor Emeritus and former Chair, Graduate Program in Studies of the Future, University of Houston-Clear Lake
“Charting the future course of an organisation is increasingly problematic in a world where the normal, uncertainty and unthinkable change are synonymous. Tricia Lustig’s advocacy of strategic foresight – and her elegantly simple explanations of how to turn theory into practice – is the voice of a wise navigator who has deep experience and intimacy with the corporate soul.”
Michael McAllum, Founder & Futures Architect, Global Foresight Network
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“Increasing demand, rising customer expectations, the speed of technological change and pressure on budgets all combine to present a significant challenge for the Public Sector. If we are to meet the demands society places on us then we need to learn to think and act very differently, whilst preserving the values so crucial to the delivery of excellent public service.
Strategic Foresight offers a coherent framework to help strategic leaders think differently – providing practical processes, tools and techniques to help leaders seize the initiative and shape the future of their organisations. Helping them to imagine possible futures and learn from them, to develop robust, stress-tested strategies, improve their decision-making and the ability to deliver change. For strategic leaders in the Public Sector looking to meet the challenges of tomorrow++, the practice of strategic foresight strikes me as one of the most important, relevant and necessary practices that they can have and develop today.”
Chris Bradley, Senior Commercial Manager, Surrey County Council
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“Strategic Foresight: Learning from the Future informs the reader to action. Written by business veteran Tricia Lustig, this book does not tell the future, but shows the reader how to develop strategy to thrive in the future.
...the author starts with basic concepts and guides the reader to tools which aid in understanding and help develop perspectives that others might miss using traditional forecasting methods.
This book is an excellent how-to manual that not only helps the reader assess the present environment, and develop strategy, but also to understand the knock-on effects of trends and weak signals and then communicate them into an organization to change it – make it strategically ready for the what the world is throwing at it.
From basic terminology, to emergent behaviors, from gathering information to putting a strategy in place, this book covers strategic foresight in a practical, easy to read, and actionable manner suitable for the C suite to front-line management.”
Jim Breaux, MSF, APF Director
“Tricia writes from her experience of using strategic foresight effectively in organisations – and unlike many people who write about a methodology or perspective, she is very clear when it is not appropriate - if you judge the conditions are right then she will guide you through using strategic foresight to steer through today’s choppy waters.”
Gill Ringland, CEO and Fellow, SAMI Consulting and Chairman, Knowledge Insights
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“In the opening line of his 1953 novel, The Go-Between , L P Hartley wrote ‘The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there’. So too it will be for the future. We cannot know what will happen but we can prepare ourselves for success by developing the ability to recognise the future as it unfolds in the present: the only place we can make decisions and take action. In this short and easy to read book Tricia Lustig gives the reader tools to exercise what she refers to as their foresight muscles and illustrates each with her personal experiences as a strategist and foresight thinker. Building on shared knowledge and insights leaders should be able to address the fundamental risk management questions: What might happen? How will I know it is happening? What will I do if it happens? What can I do now to put myself in a better position to exploit the future NOW?
Strategy is often thought of as a lonely task for Chief Executives and Directors of Strategy. The tools outlined in this book allow leaders to share the process, harvest the diversity of their teams by using foresight to build upon the collective wisdom of an organisation and make a better decision about direction and strategy. And to do this while knowing that their people are aligned behind and with them.”
Martin Hazell, Director, Simplexity Ltd.
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“In an increasingly complex business environment, strategic futures and foresight tools and techniques have much to offer businesses to help them improve both strategy and planning. But they are often poorly understood. In this practical introduction, Tricia Lustig draws on her experience of futures, learning and business transformation to help organisations design and create a better future for themselves.”
Andrew Curry, The Futures Company
“In most businesses, foresight is too often regarded as irrelevant – either insipidly bland or too fanciful for seriously busy managers to bother with. Meanwhile strategic foresight is viewed rather like the quantum world – full of complicated theories that nobody really understands anyway.
But now there can be no excuse. Here at last is a book that (though scholarly) effortlessly avoids academic tedium.
Tricia Lustig describes many useful tools and hands-on ways to use foresight as a way to futureproof any business and have fun at the same time. Written simply, in a confident conversational style, but with a profoundly down-to-earth appreciation of what leaders actually need, this compelling and hugely informative book will enlighten managers like no other book on the topic has managed to do.
Get a copy. It will be your constant guide – helping you stay in business and avoiding the traps that the unwary are increasingly falling into because of a lack of foresight.”
Richard Hames, strategic adviser to institutions, corporations and governments
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Contents
Appreciation
Introduction
What is Strategic Foresight?
Strategic Foresight
– Starting the sense-making journey
Thinking about Thinking
– Developing your Strategic Foresight muscles
The Future is a Foreign Country
Preparing for the Future
– Using Environmental Scanning, emerging trends and engaging your best for change
Mapping and Exploration of the Systems
Systems Thinking
– Messes and wicked problems
Exploring Different Paradigms
Learning from the Future and Engaging in Change
Flexing your Foresight Muscles
About the Author
About the Publisher
Appreciation
I appreciate my husband and family for putting up with the writing of this book, and for looking after me when I was deep in the research/writing/ tearing-hair-out phases of the project.
The ideas for this book were born about two years ago when several events came together. One was the quest from APF (Association for Professional Futurists) colleagues for an easy to und