Covert Regime Change

A. O'Rourke Lindsey

Description

O'Rourke's book offers a onestop shop for understanding foreignimposed regime change. Covert Regime Change is an impressive book and required reading for anyone interested in understanding hidden power in world politics. Political Science QuarterlyStates seldom resort to war to overthrow their adversaries. They are more likely to attempt to covertly change the opposing regime, by assassinating a foreign leader, sponsoring a coup d'etat, meddling in a democratic election, or secretly aiding foreign dissident groups.In Covert Regime Change, Lindsey A. O'Rourke shows us how states really act when trying to overthrow another state. She argues that conventional focus on overt cases misses the basic causes of regime change. O'Rourke provides substantive evidence of types of security interests that drive states to intervene. Offensive operations aim to overthrow a current military rival or break up a rival alliance. Preventive operations seek to stop a state from taking certain actions, such as joining a rival alliance, that may make them a future security threat. Hegemonic operations try to maintain a hierarchical relationship between the intervening state and the target government. Despite the prevalence of covert attempts at regime change, most operations fail to remain covert and spark blowback in unanticipated ways.Covert Regime Change assembles an original dataset of all American regime change operations during the Cold War. This fund of information shows the United States was ten times more likely to try covert rather than overt regime change during the Cold War. Her dataset allows O'Rourke to address three foundational questions: What motivates states to attempt foreign regime change? Why do states prefer to conduct these operations covertly rather than overtly? How successful are such missions in achieving their foreign policy goals?

Sujets

• Histoire
• USA
• Cold War
• Military intelligence
• History of the Americas
• États-Unis

Informations

• Publié par: Cornell University Press
• Date de parution: 15 décembre 2018
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781501730689
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

Covert Regime Change

a volum e in th e series

Cornell Studies in Security Affairs

Edited by Robert J. Art, Robert Jervis, and Stephen M. Walt

A list of titles in this series is available at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

Covert Regime Change America’s Secret Cold War

L i n d s e y A . O ’ R o u r k e

Cornell University Press Ithaca and London

Copyright © 2018 by Cornell University

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu.

First published 2018 by Cornell University Press

Printed in the United States of America

Library of Congress CataloginginPublication Data

Names: O’Rourke, Lindsey A., author.

Title: Convert regime change : America’s secret Cold War / Lindsey A. O’Rourke. Description: Ithaca [New York] : Cornell University Press, 2018. |  Series : Cornell studies in security affairs | Includes bibliographical  references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2018023380 (print) | LCCN 2018025454 (ebook) |  ISBN 9781501730689 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501730696 (ret) |  ISBN 9781501730658 (cloth ; alk. paper) Subjects: LCSH: Regime change—History—20th century. |  Regime change—Case studies. | United States—Foreign  relations—1945–1989. | Cold War. Classification: LCC JC489 (ebook) | LCC JC489 .O67 2018 (print) |  DDC 327.1273009/045—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018023380

For Evelyn

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

6. 7. 8. 9.

Contents

List of Figures and Tables

Acknowledgments

The False Promise of Covert Regime Change

Causes:Why Do States Launch Regime Changes?

Conduct:Why Do States Intervene Covertly versus Overtly?

Consequences:How Effective Are Covert Regime Changes?

Overview of USBacked Regime Changes during the Cold War

Rolling Back the Iron Curtain

Containment, Coup d’État, and the Covert War in Vietnam

Dictators and Democrats in the Dominican Republic

Covert Regime Change after the Cold War

Notes Index

vii

ix xi

1 22 48 73

97 125 158 194 225

237 301

List of Figures and Tables

Figures 4.1. ShortTerm Effectiveness by Covert Tactic 4.2. ShortTerm Effectiveness by Cold War Alliance 4.3. USBacked Covert Regime Change and MIDs: Bivariate Correlations 4.4. USBacked Covert Regime Change and Average Change in Polity Score 4.5. USBacked Covert Regime Change and Civil War: Bivariate Correlations 4.6. USBacked Covert Regime Change and Mass Killings: Bivariate Correlations 5.1. USBacked Regime Change Attempts by Administration, 1947–1989

Tables 1.1. USBacked Regime Change Attempts during the Cold War (1947–1989) 2.1. Case Selection and Alternative Hypotheses on the Causes of Regime Change 2.2. Regime Type of Target States—Difference of Proportions Test

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77 81

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