Coût de la conversion énergetique : document de l'AIE

Description

Document présentant les prévisions de l'AIE en matière de transition énergétique : l'investissement en énergie propre est estimé à 44 milliards de dollars d'ici à 2050.

Sujets

• IEA
• Énergie renouvelable
• Environnement

Informations

• Publié par: Fil_actu
• Publié le: 12 mai 2014
• Nombre de lectures: 31
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Energy Technology
Perspectives 2014
Harnessing Electricity’s Potential
Executive
SummaryEnergy Technology
Perspectives 2014
Harnessing Electricity’s Potential
Executive
Summary
ETP_2014_ES_Cover_Page01.indd 3 23/04/2014 16:25:052 EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014 ExecutiveSummary
ExecutiveSummary
EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014(ETP2014)chartsacoursebywhich
policyandtechnologytogetherbecomedrivingforces–ratherthan
reactionarytools–intransformingtheenergysectoroverthenext40years.
Recenttechnologydevelopments,marketsandenergy-relatedeventshave
assertedtheircapacitytoinfluenceglobalenergysystems.Theyhavealso
reinforcedthecentralroleofpolicyintheincreasinglyurgentneedtomeet
growingenergydemandwhileaddressingrelatedconcernsforenergy
security,costsandenergy-relatedenvironmentalimpacts.Radicalactionis
neededtoactivelytransformenergysupplyandenduse.
Inadditiontoanalysingtheglobaloutlookto2050underdifferentscenarios,acrosstheentire
energysystemformorethan500technologyoptions,ETP2014explorespathwaystoa
sustainableenergyfutureinwhichpolicysupportandtechnologychoicesaredrivenby
economics,securityandenvironmentalfactors.Startingfromthepremisethat
electricitywillbeanincreasinglyimportantvectorinenergysystemsofthefuture,ETP2014
takesadeepdiveintoactionsneededtosupportdeploymentofsustainableoptionsforpower
generation,distributionandend-useconsumption.
ETP2014analysesthreepossibleenergyfuturesto2050:
o
■ 6CScenario(6DS),wheretheworldisnowheadingwithpotentiallydevastatingresults
o
■ 4CScenario(4DS)reflectsstatedintentionsbycountriestocutemissionsandboostenergy
efficiency
o
■ 2CScenario(2DS)offersavisionofasustainableenergysystemofreducedgreenhousegas
andcarbondioxide(CO)emissions.2
StatusandrecenttrendsarehighlightedinTrackingCleanEnergyProgress,providinga
snapshotofadvancesorlackofprogressinmajorlow-carbonenergytechnologies.
Collectively,ETP2014laysoutthewiderangeofnecessaryandachievablestepsthatcanbe
takeninthenearandmediumtermstosetthestageforlong-termenergypolicyobjectives,
clearlyidentifyingtherolesofenergysectorplayers,policymakersandindustry.
©OECD/IEA,2014.EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014 ExecutiveSummary 3
Globalenergytrendsshowadvancesin
decouplingdemandfromeconomicgrowth,
butalsorevealbottlenecksanduncertainties
ETP2014’s2DSconfirmsthatglobalpopulationandeconomicgrowthcanbe
decoupledfromenergydemand,evenforoil.Extendingrecenttrendsto2050inthe6DS,
globalenergydemandgrowsby70%andemissionsgrowbymorethan60%against2011
levels.Underthesameprojectionsforpopulationandgrossdomesticproduct,radicalactionin
the2DSdramaticallyimprovesenergyefficiencytolimitincreasesindemandbyjustover25%
whileemissionsarecutbymorethan50%.Oneofthemostnotabledifferencesbetweenthe
twoscenariosisthis:inthe6DS,oilremainsthemostimportantprimaryenergycarrierwith
demandincreasingby45%,whilethepolicyandtechnologychoicesmadeunderthe2DS
delivera30%reductioninoildemand.
Solar,hydropowerandonshorewindarepresentlyforgingahead,whiledevelopment
ismixedforothercleanenergysupply.Policycertaintyremainsvitaltoapositive
investmentoutlookforcleanenergytechnologies.Costperunitofenergygeneratedby
onshorewindandsolarphotovoltaic(PV)continuedtofallin2013,albeitataslowerratethan
inpreviousyears.Theircost-competitivenessisimproving,insomecountries,partlydueto
innovativemarketdesign.Despitetheirflexibility,concentratingsolarpowerplantsarebeing
deployedmuchmoreslowly,withaslowerdeclineincosts.Globalnuclearcapacityis
stagnatingatthistimeasamodestcapacityincreasefromnewreactorscomingonlinehas
beenoffsetbytheretirementofageingornon-profitableplantsinmembercountriesofthe
OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD).Lookingatamidpointto
20502DStargets,installedglobalnuclearcapacityin2025willlikelybe5%to24%below
neededlevels,demonstratingsignificantuncertainty.
Emergingeconomieshavesteppeduptheirambitionsandbecomeleadersin
deployinglow-carbonenergytechnologies.Emergingmarketsmorethancompensated
forslowingormorevolatilerenewablepowergrowthinEuropeandtheUnitedStates,with
AsiadeployingmorethanhalfofglobalsolarPVadditionsin2013.China’sboldmeasuresto
supportcleantransportasameansofimprovingurbanairqualityhasledtosome150million
electric2-wheelersontheroadandgreaterdeploymentofelectricbuses.Globally,salesof
hybridelectricvehiclesandelectricvehicles(EVs)setnewrecordsin2013,butstillfallshortof
the2DStrajectory.
Continuedincreaseincoalusecounteractsemissionsreductionfromrecentprogress
inthedeploymentofrenewables,underliningtheneedtoimprovecoalplantefficiency
andscaleupcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS).Growthincoal-firedgenerationsince
2010hasbeengreaterthanthatofallnon-fossilsourcescombined,continuinga20-year
trend;60%ofnewcoalcapacitybuiltinthepastdecadewassubcritical,theleastefficient
classofcommerciallyavailablecoal-firedgenerationtechnologies.ThefutureofCCSis
uncertain;atpresent,thetechnologyisadvancingslowly,duetohighcostsandlackofpolitical
andfinancialcommitment.Near-termprogressinCCSresearch,developmentand
demonstrationisneededtoensurelong-termandcost-competitivedeploymenttowards
meetingclimategoals.
Fossilfuelusedecreasesby2050inthe2DS,butitsshareofprimaryenergysupply
remainsabove40%,reflectingitsparticularlyimportantroleforuseinindustry,
transportandelectricitygeneration.Theabilityofthedifferentindustrialsub-sectorsto
incorporaterenewableenergysourcesintotheirprocessesvariesgreatlydependingonthe
natureofthefinalproductanddiverseoperationallimitations.CCSisneededtocaptureboth
©OECD/IEA,2014.4 EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014 ExecutiveSummary
energy-andprocess-basedemissions.Inthetransportsector,highenergydensityisan
importantcharacteristicoffuels.Apartfromconventionalfossilfuels,onlybiofuelsand
hydrogenshowpotentialtosupportnon-grid-connected,long-distancetravelmodessuchas
roadfreight,aviationandshipping(variousbatteryandchargingoptionscanmoreeasily
supportelectricmobilityinurbanareas).Eveninthe2DS,by2050thelargelydecarbonised
electricitymixstilldependsonfossilfuelsfor20%ofelectricitygeneration(downfrom70%in
2011),mostofwhichiscombinedwithCCS.
Energyefficiencymakesthelargestcontributiontoglobalemissionsreductioninthe
2DS,butneedstobecombinedwithothertechnologiestomeetlongtermtargets.
Betweenthe6DSand2DSuntil2050,energyefficiencyaccountsfor38%ofcumulative
emissionsreductions,renewablesaccountfor30%,andCCSaccountsfor14%withfuel
switchingandnuclearmakingupthedifference.The2DSshowssubstantialefficiencygainsin
allend-usesectors.Intransport,fueleconomyofthewholevehiclefleetdoublesoverthe
projectionperiod,keepingsectoralenergyuseflatwhiletravelactivityalmostdoubles.
Industry,throughadoptionofbestavailabletechnologiesandgreaterpenetrationof
less-energyintensiveprocessroutesrelatedinsomecasestotheuseofrecycledmaterials,
cutsenergyuseby25%.Despiteglobalfloorareaincreasingbymorethan70%,energy
demandinbuildingsgrowsjust11%,withoutchangingthecomfortlevelsofbuildingsor
requiringhouseholdsandbusinessestoreducetheirpurchasesofappliancesandelectronics
equipment.
Increasedelectrificationisadrivingforce
acrosstheglobalenergysystem
Globally,growthinelectricitydemandisoutpacingallotherfinalenergycarriers;
thiscreatespotentialforradicallytransformingbothenergysupplyandenduse.
Sincethe1970s,electricity’soverallshareoftotalenergydemandhasrisenfrom9%toover
17%.Acrossallscenariosglobally,itclimbsto25%,whileelectricitydemandgrowsby80%
inthe2DSand130%inthe6DSby2050.Butregionalgrowthratesinactualdemandare
vastlydifferent:OECDcountriesremainalmostflatwithanaverage16%demandgrowth;in
non-OECDregions,growthskyrocketsashighas300%.ETP2014investigatesthepotential
forpushingthelimitsofelectrificationinsupplyandenduse,analysingvariantswith
increaseddeploymentofrenewablegenerationandincreasedelectrificationoftransport
andbuildings.
Thetransitiontoelectrificationisnotneutral:infact,decarbonisationrequiresa
massivereversalofrecenttrendsthathaveshowncontinuedrelianceonunabated
fossilfuelsforgeneration.Tomeet2DStargets,CO emissionsperunitofelectricity2
mustdecreaseby90%by2050.Acontinuationofcurrenttrends–whichsawoverall
electricityemissionsincreaseby75%between1990and2011,duetorisingdemandbut
littlechangeinemissionsintensity–woulddangerouslydriveupelectricity-related
emissions.Ongoinguseofimportedfossilfuelsingenerationbysomecountriesincreases
energysecurityriskandexposuretofuelsupplyvolatility,creatingcompetitivenessissues.
Bycontrast,the2DSdemonstratestheopportunitytosubstantiallyreduceemissions
intensity,reducefuelimportsandincreaseefficiencyinendusetomoderategrowthof
electricitydemand.
©OECD/IEA,2014.EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014 ExecutiveSummary 5
FigureI.1 Electricitydemandandshareofelectricity
30 000 30%
20 000 20%
10 000 10%
0 0%
2011 2030 2050 2011 2030 2050 2011 2030 2050 2011 2030 2050
Non-OECD 4DS Non-OECD 2DS OECD 4DS OECD 2DS
Total electricity demand Electricity share of total energy demand
Note: TWh = terawatt hours.
Keypoint ElectricitydemandgrowthdiffersbetweenOECDandnon-OECDcountries,butthe
dominanttrendistowardsanincreasingshareofelectricityintheoverallenergymix.
Thepotentialofincreasedelectrification
requiresdrasticchangesinsupply
anddemand,facilitatedbyincreased
stakeholderco-ordination
Impressivedeploymentofrenewabletechnologiesisbeginningtoshapea
substantiallydifferen