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• Publié par: ycyzadom
• Nombre de lectures: 43
• Langue: Français

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1

The Consequences of Osama Bin Laden’s death

– immediate retaliation, medium-term political ramifications and long-term symbolic

reverberations

Sicuro Information

Short-term:

Immediate revenge and retribution for the death of their leader could encourage al-Qaeda

members and sympathisers to retaliate and immediately intensify a period of increased anti-

American fervency. Embassies across the world are on high-alert. Westerners abroad in Muslim

regions should practice extreme vigilance and avoid symbolic targets.

Initially a greater reaction may be performed by sympathisers who believe he is dead than al-

Qaeda members and insurgent groups linked to al-Qaeda who deny he has been killed. Any

violent reaction from the latter will confirm their acceptance of his death. Whether their denial is

genuine belief or a delay tactic it is unlikely that al-Qaeda or linked terrorist groups will performan

immediate attack by way of response until they are prepared to accept the death of their leader.

However, due to the number of international terrorist groups associated, linked or inspired by al-

Qaeda it is extremely difficult to surmise what the reaction of each individual group will be, even

if the desire by al-Qaeda is to deny his death.

Interesting for the analysts community will be a measure of the reaction, particularly by alleged

‘linked’ terrorist groups. Any reaction will help determine the sense of connectivity between al-

Qaeda and other groups as well as what Osama bin Laden’s symbolism meant to them. The

response in Afghanistan and Pakistan will be of huge significance as it will help shed light on

the initial reason for the modern conflict in Afghanistan – the eradication of al-Qaeda’s influence

in the region.

Medium-term:

Al-Qaeda and the war on terror:

The most interesting development will be the evolution of al-Qaeda’s acceptance of the death of

its leader. Howlong will they continue to deny it? Continuation of their denial minimises the violent

reaction that would naturally incur if and when they decide to accept his death.

The initial reaction of revenge may be over-shadowed by a later violent response to signify

continued strength; especially when you consider the increased leadership of a younger

generation of al-Qaeda fighters that may begin to fill bin Laden’s leadership void. Reports indicate

that Osama bin Laden had removed the majority of his operational responsibilities. The impact of

his death on the operational capability of al-Qaeda is thus likely to be minimal. Symbolically his

death at the hands of the American’s, whose grasp he had eluded for the last ten years, is not.

This is a major victory to the West and its War on Terror. Naturally whether al-Qaeda accept the

death of bin Laden or not they will need to intensify their operations and conduct a major symbolic

attack to counter the edge America and the West have just gained.

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