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Global transport scenarios 2050. : rapport

76 pages
Au cours des quatre prochaines décennies, le transport mondial sera confronté à des défis sans précédent liés à la démographie, l'urbanisation, la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre dans les villes, la congestion de trafic, l'augmentation de la demande de carburant.
A la lumière de ces défis et des niveaux d'incertitudes, ce rapport propose des scénarios de transport à l'horizon 2050.
Londres. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/document.xsp?id=Temis-0075553
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Global Transport
Scenarios 2050
World Energy Council

Project Partners
IBM Corporation
Paul Scherrer Institute

Global Transport
Scenarios 2050
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 Officers of the World Energy Council
World Energy Council
Pierre Gadonneix

Copyright © 2011 World Energy Council
Abubakar Sambo
Vice Chair, Africa
All rights reserved. All or part of this publication may be used or
Liu Tie’nan reproduced as long as the following citation is included on each
Vice Chair, Asia copy or transmission: ‘Used by permission of the World Energy
Council, London, www.worldenergy.org’
Arup Roy Choudhury
Published 2011 by: Vice Chair, Asia Pacific & South Asia
World Energy Council Johannes Teyssen
Regency House 1-4 Warwick Street Vice Chair, Europe
London W1B 5LT United Kingdom
José Antonio Vargas Lleras
Vice Chair, Latin America/Caribbean ISBN: 978-0-946121-14-4
Abbas Ali Naqi
Vice Chair, Special Responsibility for Middle East &

Gulf States
Kevin Meyers
Vice Chair, North America
Heon Cheol Shin
Vice Chair, Daegu Congress 2013
Marie-José Nadeau
Chair, Communications & Outreach Committee
Graham Ward, CBE
Chair, Finance Committee
Michael Morris
Chair, Programme Committee
Brian Statham
Chair, Studies Committee
Christoph Frei
Secretary General Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
Network Members
Walter Böhme, Austria Alexandru Sandulescu, Romania
Pietro Erber, Brazil Ionut Purica, Romania
Renata Szczerbacki, Brazil Alison von Ketelhodt, South Africa
Lyudmil Kostadinov, Bulgaria Heloise Nel, South Africa
Terry Kimmel, Canada Jaime Gutiérrez, Spain
Karim Kassam, Canada Almudena Rosas, Spain
Lesme Corredor Martinez, Colombia Gunnar Bengtsson, Sweden
José Maboya Nzalingo, Congo (DR) Jochen Kreusel, Switzerland
Hans Larsen, Denmark Abdelhamid Khalfallah, Tunisia
Georges Bouchard, France Sarper Saragöglu, Turkey
Igor Czerny, France Martin Haigh, United Kingdom
Alain Le Duigou France Helen El-Mallakh, United States
Pierre Sigonney, France
Alain Bucaille, France Project Partner – Paul Scherrer Institute
Jean Eudes Moncomble , France
Simon Vinot, France Philipp Dietrich, Switzerland
Enno Harks, Germany Hal Turton, Switzerland
Matthias Kirner, Germany Martin Densing, Switzerland
Kerstin Mayr, Germany
Alexander Stöhr , Germany
Project Partner – IBM Corporation Christian Hahn, Germany
Ved Mitra, India
Irina Bychkova, United Kingdom Anil Bakshi, India
Clay Luthy, United States Philip Thomas, India
Sundar Iyer, United Kingdom Prakash Sharma, India
Steve Edwards, United Kingdom Antonio De Bellis, Italy
Michael Valocchi, United States Davide Moroni, Italy
Andrea Zara, Italy
Federico Caleno, Italy Project Team
Kaoru Horie, Japan
Christoph Frei, WEC, Secretary General Junhaeng Jo, Korea (Republic)
Karl Rose, WEC, Director Policy and Scenarios Rodolfo Lacy, Mexico
Ayed Al-Qahtani, WEC, Senior Project Manager Pinehas Mutota , Namibia
Brian Statham, South Africa Barry Blackett, New Zealand
Suduk Kim, Korea (Republic) Eli Bala, Nigeria
Mohammed Bello, Nigeria
Gabriela Prata Dias, Portugal
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
Content 3 4.2 Cooperation-Integration 29
5. Transport Scenarios 31 Executive Summary 4
5.1 Freeway 31 1. Introduction 7
5.2 Tollway 32 1.1 Background 7
6. Regional Considerations 34 1.2 Study Goals 7
6.1 Africa and the Middle East 34 1.3 Study Approach 8
6.2 Asia 36 2. Overview of Global Transport Sector 9
6.3 Europe and Russia 41 3. Driving Forces 12
6.4 North America 43 3.1 Economic Growth 12
6.5 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) 46 3.2 Demographic Trends 13
7. Modelling and Quantification 49 3.3 Urbanization and Megacities 15
7.1 Model Overview 49 3.4 Geopolitics 17
7.2 Modelling Results 53 3.5 Global Oil Reserve and Supply 18
7.3 Results for Freeway 53 3.6 Environmental and Health Concerns 19
7.4 Results for Tollway 56 3.7 Policies and Regulations 19
7.5 Scenario Comparisons on a 3.8 Lifestyle Changes 21
Global Level 60
3.9 Alternative Fuels 22
8. Conclusions 65
3.10 Fuel Efficiencies 25
Glossary 68
3.11 Innovations 26
Figures and Tables 69
3.12 Summary 28
Appendices 71
4. Critical Uncertainties 29
4.1 Government Regulation 29
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
Executive Summary
Over the next four decades, the global transportation Now is the time for strong leadership at both
sector will face unprecedented challenges related government and enterprise levels if the transport
to demographics, urbanization, pressure to sector is to make a positive contribution towards
minimize and dislocate emissions outside urban the well-being of future generations.
centres, congestion of aging transport
Regional inputs on transport policies, existing and infrastructure and growth in fuel demand. These
potential developments in both fuels and challenges will all be compounded by uncertainties
technologies, in addition to major driving forces and emerging from government intervention and
critical uncertainties were all examined and regulation. Regional and global cooperation,
combined into two distinct transport scenarios unstable global economic situations, and potential
“Freeway” and “Tollway.” The main difference technological breakthroughs will all have a
between these two scenarios is the degree and significant impact. In light of these challenges and
style of government intervention in regulating future the levels of uncertainty, the World Energy Council
transport markets. (WEC) decided to re-examine the future of the
transport and mobility sector by building Global
 The “Freeway” scenario envisages a world Transport Scenarios to 2050. These scenarios will
where pure market forces prevail to create a describe potential developments in transport fuels,
climate for open global competition. technologies, and mobility systems over the course
of the next forty years. Undoubtedly, the evolution
 The “Tollway” scenario describes a more of the transport world between 2010 and 2050 will
regulated world where governments decide to offer many challenges, the biggest of which is
intervene in markets to promote technology providing sustainable transport for the seven to
solutions and infrastructure development that nine billion people at the lowest social cost
put common interests at the forefront. possible. These scenarios show that government
policies will play a critical role in determining the
The Freeway and Tollway scenarios describe the most likely pathway into the future.
extreme ends of the potential futures envelope.
The reality will inevitably be between these two The World Energy Council believes that
scenarios with regional differences playing a major constructive dialogue between national and local
role. policy makers, manufacturers, consumers and
producers will be essential if we are to meet these
In quantifying these two scenarios, we noted that challenges. Only with discovery, promotion and
by 2050: development of new energy resources, matched to
innovation and improvements in current
 Total fuel demand in all transport modes will technologies, catalysed by optimally formulated
increase by 30% (Tollway) to 82% (Freeway) policies can we hope to ensure a more sustainable
above the 2010 levels. The growth in fuel transport future for current and future generations.
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
demand will be driven mainly by trucks,  The total number of cars in the world is also
buses, trains, ships, and airplanes. expected to increase 2.2 times (Tollway) to
2.6 times (Freeway), mainly in the developing
 Transport sector fuel mix will still depend world, where the number of cars will increase
heavily on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and jet by 430% (Tollway) to 557% (Freeway) while
fuel, as they all will still constitute the bulk of the developed countries will see an increase
transport market fuels with 80% (Tollway) to of only 36% (Tollway) to 41% (Freeway).
88% (Freeway) in 2050.
 At the end of the scenario period (2050) we
expect conventional gasoline and diesel  Demand for these major fuels will increase
internal combustion engines (ICEs) to have a by 10% (Tollway) to 68% (Freeway) over the
market share between 26% (Tollway) and scenario period.
78% (Freeway). Other drive-train technologies
will make up the rest with liquid hybrid, plug- Demand for diesel and fuel oil will grow by
ins, and electric vehicles leading in Tollway, 46% (Tollway) to 200% (Freeway).
while liquid hybrids, plug-ins and gas vehicles
 Demand for jet fuel will grow by 200% lead in Freeway.
(Tollway) to 300% (Freeway).
The scenarios also show significant regional
differences, with shale gas being a driver for  Demand for gasoline is expected to drop by
natural gas fuelled transport in North America, 16% (Freeway) to 63% (Tollway).
biofuels with a continued high contribution in Latin
America, and electric mobility having a particularly Biofuels will also help to satisfy the demand for
strong push in Asia/China where the growth of transport fuel as their use will increase almost four
megacities is most dramatic. fold in both scenarios. Other fuels including
electricity, hydrogen, and natural gas will increase
In 2010, the CO emissions from the transport 2six to seven fold.
sector were about 23% of global CO emission 2
levels and emissions from cars were about 41% of The additional transport fuel demand will come
total transport emissions. With the higher levels of from the developing countries (especially China
transport demand, and depending on the fuel mix: and India) where demand will grow by 200%
(Tollway) to 300% (Freeway). In contrast, the
 The total CO emissions from the 2transport fuel demand for the developed countries
transportation sector is expected to increase will drop by up to 20% (Tollway). The demand of
between 16% (Tollway) and 79% (Freeway), the developing countries is expected to surpass
depending mainly on the degree of the that of the developed ones by the year 2025, if not
government intervention and success in earlier.
advancing low carbon fuel systems.
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
With this picture of the transport sector in 2050,
and in light of the major drivers, WEC believes that
the global transport sector can overcome the many
challenges of meeting the global transport demand
in the context of the Energy Trilemma. The biggest
challenge will be to provide sustainable transport
for the seven to nine billion people with the
minimum possible congestion, pollution, and noise
generated by additional traffic and freight.
Understanding the dynamics and magnitude of
these likely future developments can offer
consumers, entrepreneurs, governments, and
private businesses the opportunity to adjust their
future plans and expectations.
WEC has no doubt that the starting of a
dialogue among concerned stakeholders, the
discovery of additional conventional and
unconventional energy resources, the
expansion in the use of renewables, the
improvements in technologies, and the
selection of optimal policies tailored to suit
each region’s needs will all ensure a
sustainable transport future and will raise the
quality of life for current and future
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
1. Introduction
degree of government intervention and/or 1.1 Background
regulations, regional and global cohesions or
cooperation, unpredicted global economic The global transportation sector will face several
situations, and potential technology breakthroughs. unprecedented challenges over the next four
In light of these challenges and uncertainties, the decades (2010 through 2050). The world’s
transport industry faces profound questions about population is expected to increase by 2.2 billion,
how transport technologies and solutions could reaching 9.2 billion, with more than two-thirds of
emerge in the next four decades, and how these the population living in cities compared to about
may be able to satisfy the coming additional half the population of today. In addition, the number
transport demands. of megacities is expected to increase from today’s
22 to between 60 and 100 megacities by 2050.
1.2 Study Goals Many of these megacities, emerging mostly in Asia,
Africa, and Latin America, will face high levels of
Capitalizing on the successful projects conducted traffic congestion, pollution, and noise.
in 1995, 1998 and 2007, the World Energy Council Furthermore, such an effect will be amplified by the
(WEC) has again decided to examine the future two to three billion cars and trucks that could be in
relationship between energy and transport, building circulation. Over the same period, travel and road
Global Transport Scenarios out to 2050. This effort freight will at least double due to increased demand
is undertaken in parallel with, and under the for transport, along with both economic
umbrella of, an energy scenarios exercise, but development and improvements in standards of
focuses solely on the transport sector. The aim of living.
this project is to construct and describe potential
Driven by increases in all travel modes, some global transport scenarios that reflect potential
sources expect the energy consumption of the developments in transport fuels, technologies, and
transport sector to increase by between 80% and systems over the course of the next four decades.
130% above today’s level. In addition, the transport
The scenario approach has been adopted to sector alone could consume more than one third of
describe the future of transport because other global energy supplies (including more than half of
approaches, including long-term forecasting, are all oil produced). Most of this demand is expected
regarded as insufficient or even inadequate for to come from regions undergoing strong economic
addressing the vast uncertainties surrounding the and population growth (China, India, Russia, Latin
world of transport. Unlike other tools, scenarios America, and the Middle East).
provide a set of plausible stories about different
Challenges relating to population demographics, possible futures, taking into account uncertainties,
urbanization, traffic congestion, local pollution, critical factors, and driving forces. Furthermore,
noise, and economics will all be compounded by these internally consistent stories are intended to
uncertainties emerging from the unpredicted stimulate creativity in a challenging and yet
Global Transport Scenarios 2050 World Energy Council
plausible way. They are not to be considered as During a scenario-building workshop in London the
forecasts or exact quantification tools, but rather as information developed so far was used to create a
instruments for learning. working draft of two transport scenarios, looking
out to 2050. The working titles of the scenarios are
“Freeway” and “Tollway”. 1.3 Study Approach
To complete the study’s quantification To achieve this goal, WEC assembled a team on
requirements, WEC identified and commissioned transport comprising 54 members from 29
the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Switzerland as a countries. The first objective of the team was to
modelling partner. The two scenarios, along with identify and evaluate existing and potential fuel and
the developed regional inputs, were translated into transport technologies, both qualitatively and
numeric assumptions and fed into PSI’s transport quantitatively. The qualitative assessment was
model. intended to address current and potential
developments in global transport systems at
This report starts with an overview of the global national and/or regional levels. The team used
transport sector, along with discussion of the available information from completed and ongoing
related major driving forces, constraints, and WEC studies and from proprietary and publicly
uncertainties. This is followed by descriptions of the available sources. To form the foundation for the
two scenarios, Freeway and Tollway, and the study, the team also used case studies and
regional inputs. The remainder of the report quantified examples of available and emerging
comprises the modelling results, concluding with technologies and enabling policies. All this
key messages extracted from these results. information was then compiled into a 150-page
background document, which formed input for the
scenarios on technologies, fuels, and transport
Regional inputs on transport policies, local issues,
and major driving forces were gathered during a
series of regional workshops held, in
Johannesburg, Bangkok, London, Thessaloniki,
Washington D.C., and Rio de Janeiro. A series of
transport questions was prepared for each
workshop and discussed with local experts and
WEC member committees. The insights from these
workshops helped to form the assumptions for the
development of transport scenarios through a
bottom-up approach.