Globalization and Growth

Michael Spence And Danny Leipziger

Description

*What were the causes of the financial and economic crises of 2008-2009?
*What intellectual and policy mistakes prevented academics and policymakers from anticipating the crisis?
*What is the future of financial regulation-both domestic and international?
*What role did global macroeconomic imbalances play in the run-up to the crisis?
*What is the future of the export-led growth model and what are the implications for developing countries?
*To what extent will government remain involved in the economy as a result of the crisis?
*What is state of infrastructure policy and the outlook for growth-promoting infrastructure spending?
*What is the appropriate role of countercyclical fiscal policy in stimulating growth?
*What are the long term challenges to growth?
*How will climate change dynamics affect developing country growth in the future?
*How will evolving demographic trends affect labor markets and what are possible policy steps to mitigate projected declines in economic growth?
This book has been prepared for the Commission on Growth and Development to evaluate the prospects for economic growth in developing countries in the wake of the world financial and economic crises of 2008-2009. It considers a range of questions, particularly with regard to the future of globalization and the policy implications of the crisis. It considers the important issues pertaining to short-term, medium-term, and long-term growth and puts forward the latest policy ideas for fostering sustained economic growth in the developing world.
Written by prominent academics, policymakers, and practitioners, the contributions to 'Globalization and Growth' seeks to create a better understanding of the evolving dynamic of globalization and economic growth, with particular regard to developing countries, and to inform policy makers of possible policy levers to address central concerns in this area.

Sujets

• Globalization
• Economic growth
• Financial crisis
• Demographics
• Infrastructure
• Industrial policy
• Climate change
• Fiscal policy
• Financial regulation

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 02 avril 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 40
• EAN13: 9780821382219
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

Globalization and Growth
Implications for a Post-Crisis World
Michael Spence
Danny Leipziger
EditorsGlobalization and Growth
Implications for a Post-Crisis World
Commission on Growth and DevelopmentGlobalization and Growth
Implications for a Post-Crisis World
Edited by Michael Spence and Danny Leipziger
Contributions by
Michael Spence
Danny Leipziger
Daron Acemoglu
Philippe Aghion
David E. Bloom
Charles W. Calomiris
David Canning
William R. Cline
Richard N. Cooper
Antonio Estache
Marianne Fay
Günther Fink
David Hemous
Ravi Kanbur
Enisse Kharroubi
Robert Mendelsohn
Dani Rodrik
Andrew Sheng
David Wheeler
COMMISSION ON GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /
The World Bank
On behalf of the Commission on Growth and Development
1818 H Street NW
Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: [phone]
Internet: www.worldbank.org
www.growthcommission.org
E-mail: [e-mail]
[e-mail]
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10
This volume is a product of the Commission on Growth and Development, which
is sponsored by the following organizations:
Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)
Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA)
U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
The World Bank Group
The fi ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily
refl ect the views of the sponsoring organizations or the governments they represent.
The sponsoring organizations do not guarantee the accuracy of the data
included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other
information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the
part of the sponsoring organizations concerning the legal status of any
territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be
addressed to the Offi ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street
NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: [phone]; e-mail: pubrights@
worldbank.org.
ISBN: 978-0-8213-8220-2
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8221-9
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8220-2
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Globalization and growth: implications for a post-crisis world / Michael Spence
and Danny Leipziger.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-8220-2—ISBN 978-0-8213-8221-9 (electronic)
1. Financial crises—History—21st century. 2. Economic history—History—
21st century. 3. Globalization. I. Spence, Michael, 1943– II. Leipziger, Danny M.
HB3722.G598 2010
338.9—dc22
2009054247
Cover design: Naylor DesignContents
Preface xi
Workshop Participants xvii
Biographies of the Editors and Contributors xxiii
Acknowledgments xxix
Abbreviations xxxi
Introduction 1
1 Globalization Revisited 3
Danny Leipziger
PART 1 The Global Financial Crisis: Causes,
Mitigation, and Reform 35
2 The Crisis of 2008: Structural Lessons
for and from Economics 37
Daron Acemoglu
3 Financial Innovation, Regulation,
and Reform 47
Charles W. Calomiris
Contents v 4 Financial Crisis and Global Governance:
A Network Analysis 69
Andrew Sheng
5 Understanding Global Imbalances 95
Richard N. Cooper
6 Macro Crises and Targeting Transfers
to the Poor 109
Ravi Kanbur
PART 2 How to Foster Real Growth 123
7 Growth after the Crisis 125
Dani Rodrik
8 Current Debates on Infrastructure Policy 151
Antonio Estache and Marianne Fay
9 Exports of Manufactures and Economic
Growth: The Fallacy of Composition Revisited 195
William R. Cline
10 Industry Growth and the Case for
Countercyclical Stimulus Packages 235
Philippe Aghion, David Hemous, and Enisse Kharroubi
PART 3 Long-Term Challenges to Growth 245
11 Greenhouse Emissions and Climate
Change: Implications for Developing
Countries and Public Policy 247
David Wheeler
12 Climate Change and Economic Growth 285
Robert Mendelsohn
13 Population Aging and Economic Growth 297
David E. Bloom, David Canning, and Günther Fink
Index 329
vi ContentsFigures
4.1. Network Topology: Tradeoff between Effi ciency
and Robustness 73
4.2. Expansion Process of an Epidemic 81
7.1. Growth of GDP per Capita in Select Regions
and Time Periods 128
7.2. Relationship between Industrial Share in GDP and
Economic Growth 130
7.3. Relationship between Share of Industrial Employment
in Total Employment and Economic Growth 130
7.4. Net Capital Outfl ows and Growth in Various Countries,
Pre-1990 and Post-1990 135
7.5. Income Gradient of Industrial Shares in GDP 139
7.6. Equilibrium in the Market for Tradables 142
8.1. Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation in
Developing Countries, by Sector, 1990–2005 176
9.1. Manufactures as Percent of Total Exports, 1962–2004 207
9.2. Appreciation against the U.S. Dollar and
Change in Reserves Relative to Imports, End-2001 to
End-2005 227
9.3. U.S. Imports from Industrial, OPEC, and Other
Developing Countries, 1991–2005 229
9.4. U.S. Imports from Principal Supplying Economies,
1996–2005 231
11.1. Atmospheric CO Concentration and Temperature: 2
Four Ice-Age Cycles 249
11.2. Atmospheric CO Concentration, 1744–2007 2512
11.3. Atmospheric CO Concentration and Cumulative 2
Emissions, 1744–2007 251
11.4. Fraction of One Ton of Carbon Emitted in 1850
Remaining in the Atmosphere, 1850–2010 252
11.5. Emissions Attributable to the North and the South,
by IPCC Scenario, 1900–2010 256
11.6. Annual CO Emissions Attributable to the North and 2
the South, 1965–2035 263
11.7. Cumulative Atmospheric CO Emissions Attributable 2
to the North and the South, 1965–2035 263
11.8. Global CO Concentration and Projected Concentration 2
Attributable to the South Alone (IPCC A1F1 Scenario),
1965–2035 264
Contents vii11.9. Atmospheric CO Concentration Attributed to the 2
South Alone (IPCC A1F1 Scenario), 1980–2100 264
11.10. Projected Loss in Agricultural Productivity from
Climate Change in Developing Countries 266
11.11. Area of Arctic Ocean with At Least 15 Percent Sea Ice,
1979–2000 Average and September 2007 266
11.12. Projected Percentage of Population Displaced
by a 3-Meter Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Developing
Countries 267
11.13. Flood-Damage Risk Index in Developing Countries,
1960–2000 268
11.14. Area in Nevada Required to Power the Entire
United States with Solar Energy 269
13.1. World Population, by Age Group, 1950–2050 301
13.2. Share of Population At Least 60 Years Old, by UN Fertility
Assumption, 2000–50 301
13.3. World Population, by Five-Year Age Group, 1950–2050 302
13.4. Age Structure in Developed and Developing Countries,
1950–2050 303
13.5. Share of Population Aged 60+, by Region, 1950–2050 303
13.6. Share of Population in Developed Countries, by Age
Group, 1950–2050 304
13.7. Population in Developed Countries, by Five-Year Age 304
13.8. Elderly Share in Select Developing Countries, 1950–2050 305
13.9. Male-Female Ratio in Developed and Developing
Countries, by Age, 2005 and 2050 306
13.10. Share of Population in Developing Countries,
by Age Group, 1950–2050 307
13.11. Life Expectancy in Developed and Developing
Countries, 1950–2040 308
13.12. Share of Population in Developing Countries, by Five-
Year Age Group, 1950–2050 308
13.13. Ratio of Working-Age to Non-Working-Age Population
in Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1950–2050 310
13.14. Labor Force Participation Rate, 1960 and 2000 314
13.15. Labor Force Participation Rate, 2000 and 2040 314
13.16. Labor Force per Capita, 2000 and 2040 315
13.17. Actual and Counterfactual Annual Growth Rates of
Income per Capita, 1960–2000 316
viii Contents