Faurecia (G rojec) Pôles A utom obiles The crucial role of Principaux constructeurs Scania et équipem entiers E aton FDI, which D elphi V W (P oznan) F iat concentrates around G M (O pel) D aew oo G M (Isuzu ) the Czech Rep. D a i m l e r -C hrysler (B erlin) E V o i l d v e o((VLaurbslionv)ie) FDaeelutprahelicAiaC x M P o r s c h e / M W (L eipzig) B tz B Skoda (V W ) MuanuliRubber Faurecia R on a l M ahle V W ( D r e s d e) R onal Ingersoll ( M o s e l) V aleo ow H ay es L em m ert z G M / O p e l (K rak ) V W ( E i s e n a c h ) D elphi (K rosno) C ob a Plastic B osch F ed eral M ogu ll M itsuba SD C D a e w o o -A via SGtiabnblseyDiEeleCcatrsiticnsg H yun daï F o r d E lektrokon takt Shinw a P o r s c h e H P Pelzer B osch (Jihlava) T o y o d a G o s e l Porsche V e l g a Siem ens PS A -T oyota D aew oo M ichelin S a i n t -G o b a i n L ear C orp L eon i (A rad ) R enault D acia .V isteon R enault - R evoz PSA Delphi(TimisoaraM)ichelin K norr D aew oo (C raiova) G M (O pel) T hy ssen V W (A udi, G yör)) V W (Bratislava) Su zu ki (E sztergom ) D elph i C on tinental Source : ME Elargissement VWAEWT Pop pe& Potth of V aleo E issm an V isteon
On the supply side, competitive labour costs and a high education level
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Labor costs i n th e au tomoti ve i ndu stry (€/hou r worke d, e nd of 2004)
DE SUE FR
IT
Sources: Missions Economiques
ESP POR SLV HU
CZ P OL SLK ROU
On the demand side, under equiped countries and cars’ stock age averaging 12-13 years
B U C Y C Z E S T H U L IT L E T M A L P O L R O U S L V S L K E U 1 5 E S E L
A u to /1 0 0 0 h a b . A g e 1 9 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 2 1 9 9 3 1 5 1 2 6 3 e n v . 1 9 9 8 1 7 6 3 1 2 4 0 8 6 9 1 7 3 2 3 3 3 5 7 e n v . 1 3 ,5 2 2 8 6 1 5 3 2 9 4 2 3 9 4 1 8 7 2 4 9 1 1 ,8 1 4 7 3 1 3 3 3 4 0 1 7 6 6 1 0 6 2 6 4 1 4 à 1 6 5 1 9 1 5 6 7 1 3 8 2 8 5 1 2 à 1 3 2 1 1 5 6 1 4 4 e n v . 1 3 ,5 8 8 2 2 0 2 9 0 4 5 8 7 à 8 3 6 1 1 1 1 6 6 2 4 7 e n v . 1 3 1 8 4 2 9 3 3 9 4 4 9 1 8 7 1 2 0 3 3 0 9 4 5 9 2 6 9 0 1 7 1 3 3 9
Currently, supply exceeds demand, but both should balance in the longer term
Source : Missions Economiques
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8 0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
96
97
Balance Production Domestic sales
98 99 00 01
02
03
04
A new economic geography in Europe, which is structuring around three major industrial poles
ASIATIQUES (A) GROUPE GM (GM) GROUPE FORD (FO) FIAT (FI) GROUPE RENAULT (R) R
FO
GM P VW VW DC VW GROUPE PSA (P) A GMGMGMGM BM AA GROUPE VW (VW) P-FI FOFO FI BMW (BM) RR P RR FO DC VW P-A A GM P BM VW P DAIMLER-CHRYSLER P R P DC GM VW SU (DC) P FI R P R GM VW R P GM DC P V A FO FO GM
Source: ME Elargissement
P
FI FI
Constructeurs automobiles PECO : Projets inclus
R A
R
P
An upper stream integration with marked RCAs in vehicules and motors
15
10
5
0
-5
93
94
95
M ot eurs A ut omobiles part iculières Chimique M écanique
Source : CEPII Chelem (2004)
96
97
98
99
Elément s de véhicules aut o. Text ile Sidérurgique Elect rique
00
01
02
Intensive trade with Germany Allemagne DIR Pays-B as France DIR Pays-Bas Royaume-Uni4,00 Danemark RIorlyanudme-Uni4,00DanemarkIrlandeSuèdFeinlandea e Suède UEB L 3,00 UEBL 3,00 Finlande France 2,00 Est onie France 2,00 Est onie Espagne 1,00 Let t onie Espagne 1,00 Let t onie Port ugal 0,00 Lit huanie Po rt ugal 0,00 Lit huanie Grèce Allemagne Grèce A llemagne Roumanie Pologne Roumanie Pologne BulgTarieiRép.tchèqueBulgarieRép.tchèqueurqu e Slovaquie ItalSileovénieHongrAieutricheTurquieItaliSelénieriAeutricSlhoevaquieov Hong Pays-Bas Italie DIR Royaume-Uni 4 ,00 Danemark Irlande Suèd e UEB L 3 ,00 Finland e France 2 ,00 Est onie e Let to nie Source : Chelem-CEPII ; Espagn1,00 calc ls Lefilleur J. & Y. Port ugal Lit huanie u 0 ,00 Lepape (2005) Grèce A llemag ne Ro umanie Pologne B ulg arie Rép. t chèque Turquie Slovaquie ItaliSelovénieHongriAeutriche
Product specialisations of the CEEC
Three features emerge from the study of the CEEC’ specialisations
* Exports are concentrated on few products
* A competition with Spain exists for lower end vehicules
* A strong specialisation in motors is emerging
Source: Lefilleur J. & Y. Lepape (2005)
Some words about methodology .
Determinants and patterns of trade, specialisations and adjustment costs
Determinants Trade patterns
Specialisation
Traditional theories Factor Productivity endowments differences Inter-industry trade
along comparative advantages
New International Trade theory Economies of scale External Internal Intra-industry trade in
vertical horizontal differenciation differenciation through along the in varieties agglomeration quality economies spectrum Adjustment Important Potentially important Weak costs (changes in factor prices (potential income divergence among industries within countries) among countries)
Source : Freudenberg M. et Lemoine F. (1999), repris de Fontagné L. et Freudenberg M (1997)
An already high level of intra-industry trade in the automotive industry
Share of intra-industry trade (total and horizontal) in the CEEC-EU6 bilateral trade*