Wind Energy in Colombia

Walter Vergara

Description

The wind regime in Colombia has been rated among the best in South America. However, under the current circumstances, and on its own, the interconnected system would not likely promote wind power. This report is targeted to analysts, planners, operators, generators and decision makers in Colombia and other countries in the region and provides a set of policy options to promote the use of wind power. The potential instruments assessed in this study include financial instruments, government fiscal mechanisms, and adjustments to the regulatory system. The single most effective policy instrument to promote wind power in Colombia consists on valuing the firm energy offered by wind, its potential complementarity to the hydrological regime and enabling wind power an access to reliability payments.

Sujets

• Wind power
• Colombia
• Renewable energy
• Firm service
• Climate change
• Complementarity
• Energy
• Environment

Informations

• Publié par: world-bank-publications
• Publié le: 30 juillet 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 40
• EAN13: 9780821385081
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

A WORLD BANK STUDY
Wind Energy
in Colombia
A FRAMEWORK FOR MARKET ENTRY
Walter Vergara, Alejandro Deeb,
Natsuko Toba, Peter Cramton, Irene LeinoWORLD BANK STUDY
Wind Energy
in Colombia
A Framework for Market Entry
Walter Vergara
Alejandro Deeb
Natsuko Toba
Peter Cramton
Irene Leino




















Copyright © 2010
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
All rights reserved
Manufactured in the United States of America
First Printing: July 2010
Printed on recycled paper

1 2 3 4 13 12 11 10

World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development
community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared
in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. Some sources cited in this
paper may be informal documents that are not readily available.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do
not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The
World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or
the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The
boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply
any judgment on the part of The World Bank of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or
acceptance of such boundaries.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this
work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will
normally grant permission promptly to reproduce portions of the work.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete
information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA,
Tel: [phone], Fax: [phone], www.copyright.com.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the
Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-
2422, email: [e-mail].

ISBN: 978-0-8213-8504-3
eISBN: 978-0-8213-8508-1
ISSN: 1726-5878 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-8504-3


Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been requested.


Contents
Preface ..................................................................................................................................... viii
Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................... ix
Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................. x
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... xiii
Objective ............................................................................................................................ xiii
General Context ............................................................................................................... xiii
Alternative Power Options for Colombia’s Power Mix .............................................. xiv
Wind Energy Capital Costs Are Expected to Decrease .............................................. xiv
Wind and Hydro Energy Resources Are Complementary.......................................... xv
Options to Address Barriers to Entry ............................................................................. xv
Impact of Policy Options ............................................................................................... xvii
Lessons Learned ............................................................................................................. xviii
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1
Context ................................................................................................................................. 1
Structure of the Report ....................................................................................................... 3
2. Summary of Findings from First Stage Report: Nonconventional Renewable
Energy Barrier Analysis .................................................................................................... 4
3. Cost Comparison of Alternative Power Sources Based on the Expansion Plan
for 2008–2025 ....................................................................................................................... 7
Methodology for Technology Cost Comparison ............................................................ 7
Least (Levelized) Cost Comparison ................................................................................. 9
4. Wind Power Costs Outlook ............................................................................................... 13
Technical Viability of Wind Power ................................................................................. 13
Efficiency Gains over Time .............................................................................................. 14
Capital Cost Evolution ..................................................................................................... 14
Operation and Maintenance Costs Are Decreasing ..................................................... 15
Wind Power Grid Integration ......................................................................................... 16
Outlook ............................................................................................................................... 16
5. Wind and Hydro in Colombia: Complementarity Analysis ........................................ 18
Complementarity of the Wind and Hydro Regimes .................................................... 18
Firm Energy and Joint Operation of Wind and Hydroelectric Projects ..................... 25
6. Options to Aid Market Entry of Wind Energy in the Country’s Power Mix ............ 29
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 29
Options to Facilitate Market Entry of Wind Energy .................................................... 29
Proposal to Address the Reliability Issue for Wind Energy ........................................ 32
iii iv Contents
7. Assessing the Effectiveness of Policy Instruments and Policy Options: Impact
on a 300 MW Wind-Powered Power Plant Operating in the Wholesale
Energy Market .................................................................................................................. 36
Baseline Information ........................................................................................................ 37
Baseline Results ................................................................................................................. 39
Impact of Selected Policy Options .................................................................................. 40
Key Findings: Options to Foster Investment in Wind Power ..................................... 47
Conclusions of the Estimated Impact of Alternative Policy Options for a
300 MW Wind Energy Power Plant in the MEM .................................................. 48
8. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 50
Wind Energy Resources Could Become an Important Energy Option in
Colombia .................................................................................................................... 50
Policy Instruments ............................................................................................................ 51
Policy Options ................................................................................................................... 51
Other Findings .................................................................................................................. 52
Applicability of the Analysis Conducted ...................................................................... 52
References ................................................................................................................................. 53

APPENDIXES ........................................................................................................................... 55
Appendix 1. Technology Cost Comparison ........................................................................ 56
Appendix 2. Use of Earth Simulator to Estimate the Likelihood of Extreme
Weather Events ................................................................................................................. 58
Appendix 3. Pool Prices under Various