2050 - Tomorrow's Tourism

Ian Yeoman

Description

In 2050, it is predicted that 4.7bn or nearly 50% of the world's population will take an international holiday. But can humankind meet that forecast given the issues of ageing populations, peak oil, the global financial crisis and climate change? This book constructs scenarios from Shanghai to Edinburgh, Seoul to California encompassing complex topics such as human trafficking, conferences, transport, food tourism or technological innovation. This is a blue skies thinking book about the future of tourism and a thought-provoking analytical commentary.

Authors

Acknowledgements

Forewords

– F. de Klerk Wolters

– G. Lipman

– D. Glaesser

Introduction

1 An Introduction to the Future

Wealth

2 World Economic Order: The Tourism Economy in 2050

3 Where Have All the Tourists Gone? Pensions, Demography and the Germans

4 Tomorrow’s Tourist: Fluid and Simple Identities

Technology

5 Edinburgh 2050: Technological Revolution

6 Singapore 2050: Medicine, Science and the Meetings Industry

7 Amsterdam 2050: Sex, Robots and the End of Human Trafficking

8 New Zealand 2050: The Future of Professional Rugby and Sporting Events

Resources

9 California and Metropolis Los Angeles 2050: Changing Landscapes, Cities and Climate Change

10 Seoul 2050: The Future of Food Tourism

11 Shanghai 2050: The Future of Hotels

12 2050: The Future of Transport

Afterwords

– R. Talwar

– A. Postma

References

Index

Sujets

• Future Studies
• Industries
• Employabilité, métiers et formations
• Hospitality
• Futurology
• Scenario planning
• Professional
• Forecasting
• Undergraduate education
• Travel
• Postgraduate education
• Tourism
• Economics
• 2050
• Business
• Research
• Postgraduate
• Undergraduate
• Industrie

Informations

• Publié par: Channel View Publications
• Date de parution: 13 juin 2012
• Nombre de lectures: 0
• EAN13: 9781845413033
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 3 Mo

Extrait

2050 – Tomorrow’s Tourism

ASPECTS OF TOURISM Series Editors:Chris Cooper(Oxford Brookes University, UK),C. Michael Hall(University of Canterbury, New Zealand)and Dallen J. Timothy(Arizona State University, USA)

Aspects of Tourismis an innovative, multifaceted series, which comprises authoritative reference handbooks on global tourism regions, research vol- umes, texts and monographs. It is designed to provide readers with the latest thinking on tourism worldwide and push back the frontiers of tourism knowledge. The volumes are authoritative, readable and user-friendly, provid- ing accessible sources for further research. Books in the series are commis- sioned to probe the relationship between tourism and cognate subject areas such as strategy, development, retailing, sport and environmental studies.

Full details of all the books in this series and of all our other publications can be found on http://www.channelviewpublications.com, or by writing to Channel View Publications, St Nicholas House, 31–34 High Street, Bristol BS1 2AW, UK.

2050 – Tomorrow’s Tourism

Ian Yeoman with Tan Li Yu Rebecca, Michelle Mars and Mariska Wouters

CHANNEL VIEW PUBLICATIONS Bristol  Buffalo  Toronto

To Vikki, the best raspberry top in the world

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Yeoman, Ian. 2050 – Tomorrow's Tourism/Ian Yeoman, with Rebecca Li Yu...[et al.]. Aspects of Tourism: 55 Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Tourism--Forecasting. I. Yu, Rebecca Li. II. Title. G155.A1Y46 2012 338.4'791–dc23 2012009340

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue entry for this book is available from the British Library.

ISBN-13: 978-1-84541-302-6 (hbk) ISBN-13: 978-1-84541-301-9 (pbk)

Channel View Publications UK: St Nicholas House, 31–34 High Street, Bristol BS1 2AW, UK. USA: UTP, 2250 Military Road, Tonawanda, NY 14150, USA. Canada: UTP, 5201 Dufferin Street, North York, Ontario M3H 5T8, Canada.

Copyright © 2012 Ian Yeoman.

All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher.

The policy of Multilingual Matters/Channel View Publications is to use papers that are natural, renewable and recyclable products, made from wood grown in sustainable forests. In the manufacturing process of our books, and to further support our policy, preference is given to printers that have FSC and PEFC Chain of Custody certification. The FSC and/or PEFC logos will appear on those books where full certification has been granted to the printer concerned.

Typeset by Techset Composition Ltd., Salisbury, UK. Printed and bound in Great Britain by Short Run Press Ltd.

Contents

Authors Acknowledgements Forewords –F. de Klerk Wolters –G. Lipman –D. Glaesser

1

2

3

Introduction

An Introduction to the Future Introduction: My Predicament What Future? Scarcity of Resources or a Society of Plenty Futures Studies: A Quantum Leap of Science Fiction Scenario Planning Chapter Outlines Conclusion: Utility Value

Wealth World Economic Order: The Tourism Economy in 2050 Introduction Drivers of World Economic Growth Risk: Global Economic Disorder A New World Order The New Consumer How Does Economics Shape World Tourism? A New World Order: China and India What are the Prospects for World Tourism in 2050? Concluding Remarks

Where Have All the Tourists Gone? Pensions, Demography and the Germans Introduction World Demography Trends

v

ix xi

xiii xiv xvi

3 3 3 4 7 8 13

17 17 18 20 21 23 25 26 28 31

34 34 35

vi 205 0 – Tomor r ow 's To ur ism

4

5

6

7

8

Demographic Projections of the Next 50 Years The Future of Pensions So, What Does This Mean for Tourism? Concluding Remarks

Tomorrow’s Tourist: Fluid and Simple Identities Introduction: Which Identity? Fluid Identity Simple Identity Concluding Remarks

Technology

Edinburgh 2050: Technological Revolution Introduction: The Role of Technology How Technology has Changed Everything So, Imagine This . . . Drivers of Technological Innovation Concluding Remarks

Singapore 2050: Medicine, Science and the Meetings Industry Introduction The Meetings Industry How the Meetings Industry is Changing The Medical Meetings Industry in Singapore Scenario: Conveying Complexity Key Issues Concluding Remarks

Amsterdam 2050: Sex, Robots and the End of Human Trafficking Introduction Sex Tourism Amsterdam’s Sex Industry Amsterdam’s Red Light District Scenario: Perfect Sex Is Making Love to a Robot a Feasible Future? Concluding Remarks

New Zealand 2050: The Future of Professional Rugby and Sporting Events Introduction New Zealand and Rugby Union How will New Zealand Dominate the World of Rugby in 2050?

36 38 42 48

50 50 51 57 60

65 65 66 67 68 84

88 88 89 92 94 95 96 103

106 106 108 108 109 111 125 128

130 130 131

132

9

C on t en t s vii

Drivers of Change How Will These Drivers Change the Sporting Landscape? The Future of Professional Sport Concluding Remarks

Resources

California and Metropolis Los Angeles 2050: Changing Landscapes, Cities and Climate Change Introduction California’s Demography and Urbanisation Tourism in California Future Cities Urban Metropolis: Los Angeles in 2050 Key Drivers of Change The Implications of Change on the Present Concluding Remarks

10 Seoul 2050: The Future of Food Tourism Introduction Food Tourism But . . . Key Drivers A Reversal of Fortunes Concluding Remarks

11 Shanghai 2050: The Future of Hotels Introduction: Shanghai Today So, This is a Story about Sean . . . Futurism, Architecture and Design Evolving Trends in the Hospitality Industry: Hotels 2020 Main Drivers Shaping the Future of Hotels Concluding Remarks

12 2050: The Future of Transport Introduction: Why Transport and Tourism Go Together Our Transport System Critical Issues: Peak Oil and Climate Change The Short-Term Future of Transport A Further Longer-Term and Futuristic Perspective on Transport Concluding Thoughts

133 139 144 149

153 153 154 155 155 157 159 168 170

174 174 176 177 178 187 190

192 192 194 195

196 197 208

212

212 213 215 221

222 228

viii 205 0 – Tomor r ow 's To ur ism

Afterwords –R. Talwar –A. Postma

References

Index

230 232

234

250

Authors

Dr Ian Yeomanis eligibility the world’s only professional crystal ball gazer or futurologist specializing in travel and tourism. Ian learned his trade as the scenario planner for Visit Scotland, where he established the process of futures thinking within the organisation using a variety of techniques including economic modelling, trends analysis and scenario construction. In July 2008, Ian was appointed an Associate Professor of Tourism Management at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand.

Ian has published extensively within the field of tourism futures, with arti- cles published in leading academic journals such as Tourism Management, Journal of Travel Research and Journal of Vacation Marketing on a variety of topics from climate change to the future of energy and consumer trends, all within the context of travel and tourism. He is a popular speaker at confer- ences and was described by the UK Sunday Times as the country’s leading contemporary futurologist. Ian is the holder of a number of honorary posi- tions, including Visiting Professor at the European Tourism Futures Institute at Stenden University of Applied Sciences, Netherlands and Visiting Research Fellow at Sheffield Hallam University, England. Ian has undertaken consul- tancy projects for the UN World Tourism Organisation and is sought out by many organisations for advice about the future. Ian is presently undertaking research for the Ministry of Science and Innovation examining the future of tourism in New Zealand in 2050 (see www.tourism2050.com). Publications include "Tomorrow’s Tourists: Scenarios and Trends" (www.tomorrowstour- ist.com) which looks at where the tourist will go on holiday in 2030 and what they will do. Other new titles include "Tourism and Demography" (Goodfellows 2010), "Revenue Management" (Palgrave 2010). When not doing the above, you will find him tramping, watching movies, cooking, supporting his native football team (Sunderland AFC) and adopted one (Wellington Phoenix).

With……..

Tan Li Yu Rebeccais a Management Associate with Sentosa Development Corporation, Singapore and a Bachelor of Tourism Management (Honours)

ix

x 205 0 – Tomor r ow 's To ur ism

graduate of Victoria University of Wellington. She has been a research assis- tant to Dr Ian Yeoman in contribution for this book.

Dr Michelle Marsthe Research Manager for Medical Technology is Association of Australia. She has published across a wide range of topics and disciplinary areas. Her areas of expertise are gender and sexuality, and disability.

Mariska Wouterscurrently works for Local Government New Zealand as a senior policy analyst in the area of local body governance. Her interests are tourism, conservation, and community development.