Effects of the oil export price increase on the economy [Elektronische Ressource] : theoretical and empirical issues ; a CGE analysis of the case of Kazakhstan / vorgelegt von Zhanna Kapsalyamova

Zhanna

Informations

• Publié par: christian-albrechts-universitat_zu_kiel
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 28
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 5 Mo

Extrait

Effects of the Oil Export Price Increase on the
Economy: Theoretical and Empirical Issues – A
CGE Analysis of the Case of Kazakhstan







Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors
der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften
der Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät
der Christian-Albrechts Universität zu Kiel


vorgelegt von

Zhanna Kapsalyamova, MS
aus Temirtau, Kazakhstan












Kiel, 2010






Gedruckt mit Genehmigung der
Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Fakultät
der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel


Dekan:
Prof. Dr. Thomas Lux


Erstberichterstattender:
Prof. Dr. Johannes Broecker


Zweitberichterstattender:
Prof. Dr. Katrin Rehdanz



















Tag der Abgabe der Arbeit:
20. Januar 2010


Tag der mündlichen Prüfung:
07. Juli, 2010















To my dearest family, and especially to my father

Acknowledgments

I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Dr. Johannes Broecker
and Prof. Dr. Katrin Rehdanz for their exceptional guidance, continuous support and helpful
comments on earlier versions of this thesis. This thesis would not have been possible without
their great supervision and especially without their great dedication to their work and
economic science. I consider myself very fortunate for the opportunity to be supervised by
such great scholars and I am very much indebted to them.

I would also like to thank the DAAD and the PhD Program “Quantitative Economics” of the
Christian Albrechts University of Kiel for their financial support of my thesis. This thesis
would not have been possible without their generous financial support.

I am also very much thankful to professors at the Department of Economics of the Christian
Albrechts University of Kiel and especially to Prof. Dr. Lux for accepting me into the PhD
Program and for providing me with an excellent environment for my research. I also would
like to thank Dr. Kramer for his proof-reading of my thesis and for helpful advices on
improving my academic writing.

My friends and dear colleagues at the PhD Program “Quantitative Economics” of the
Christian Albrechts University of Kiel also deserve special gratitude. I am very much thankful
to Maria Antonova, Aidan Islyami and Lucia Cuadro Saez for their comments on earlier
versions of this thesis and moral support. I am also thankful to Lin Lin, Sek Siok Kun, Julia
Michailova, Kirsten Ruckes, Artem Korzhenevych, Miriam Schneider, Jens Gerdes and Ayse
Sayar for their kindness and creating pleasurable environment.

I am very much grateful to my parents: Zaidagul and Baurzhan for their immense love and
encouragement during my study in Kiel. Especially I am very much grateful to my father who
is the best example of a true scientist for me and who has greatly encouraged me to pursue my
Doctoral studies. Perhaps, I would have never considered studying in a Doctoral Program if
he had not strongly encouraged me to do so. I will never be able to repay for his and my
mother’s great love and support. I am also very much thankful to my young sister Dana and
young brother Akim for their love and great support during my study in Kiel. Especial thanks
to my husband Medgat for his care, love and patience. This thesis I dedicate to all of them.





LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................IV
LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................................... V
LIST OF FIGURES...................................................................................................................................VIII
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 AIMS OF THE STUDY........................................................................................................................ 2
1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES ............................................................................. 2
1.4 OUTLINE OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................................. 3
CHAPTER 2 SELECTED REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON RESOURCE BOOMS.................... 6
2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 THEORY OF DUTCH DISEASE ECONOMICS......................................................................................... 7
2.3 CGE MODELING: GENERAL APPROACH ......................................................................................... 10
2.4 REVIEW OF CGE MODELS OF RESOURCE BOOMS AND BUSTS.......................................................... 12
2.5 NON-CGE STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF THE RESOURCE BOOM IN KAZAKHSTAN ............................. 22
2.6 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................... 23
CHAPTER 3 SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT AND OIL DEPENDENCE OF KAZAKHSTAN:
OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY............................................................................................................. 25
3.1 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................................... 25
3.2 ECONOMIC RECORD ...................................................................................................................... 26
3.2.1 Real Economic Growth ............................................................................................................ 26
3.2.2 Sectoral development ............................................................................................................... 27
3.2.3 Macroeconomic Indicators....................................................................................................... 30
3.3 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................... 36
APPENDIX 3A INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRY.................................................................... 37
APPENDIX 3B OVERVIEW OF THE INCOMINGS AND EXPENDITURES OF THE NATIONAL FUND OF THE REPUBLIC
OF KAZAKHSTAN ........................................................................................................................................ 39
CHAPTER 4 ONE-SECTOR AND TWO-SECTOR STYLIZED MODEL: ANALYSIS OF EXPORT
PRICES INCREASES .................................................................................................................................. 40
4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 40
4.2 ONE-SECTOR MODEL .................................................................................................................... 41
4.2.1 Overview of the One-Sector Model ........................................................................................... 41
4.2.2 Graphical Analysis of the One-Sector Model ............................................................................ 42
4.3 STYLIZED TWO-SECTOR MODEL .................................................................................................... 44
4.3.1 Overview of the Two-Sector Model........................................................................................... 44
4.3.2 Analysis of the Two-Sector Model: Disaggregation of Effects................................................... 45
4.3.2.1 Balance-of-Trade Effect................................................................................................................. 46
4.3.2.2 Import-Competing Effect............................................................................................................... 49
4.4 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................................................... 53
APPENDIX 4A DESCRIPTION AND SOLUTION OF THE ONE-SECTOR MODEL............................................... 54
Appendix 4A.1 List of the Symbols Used in the One-Sector Model........................................................... 54
Appendix 4A.2 Overview and Solution of the One-Sector Model ............................................................. 55
4A.2.1 Overview of the model ................................................................................................................... 55
4A.2.2 Solution of the model ............