Party competition over time [Elektronische Ressource] : how voters and intra-party structure constrain party policy shifts / Thomas Meyer

Tmeyer

Informations

• Publié par: universitat_mannheim
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 19
• Langue: English

Extrait

Party competition over time:
How voters and intra-party structure constrain
party policy shifts








Thomas Meyer
Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences (GESS)
Center for Doctoral Studies in Social and Behavioral Sciences (CDSS)
University of Mannheim








Dissertation thesis written at the Center for Doctoral Studies in the Social and Behavioral
Sciences of the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences and submitted for the
degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of
Mannheim.


CDSS Academic Director:
Professor Dr. Thomas Bräuninger
School of Social Sciences
Department of Political Science
University of Mannheim
A5, 6
68131 Mannheim
Germany


Supervisor:
Professor Dr. Wolfgang C. Müller
Department of Government
University of Vienna
Hohenstaufengasse 9
1010 Vienna
Austria


Co-Supervisor:
Professor Dr. Michael J. Laver
Department of Politics
New York University
19 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1119
USA



Defense: June 16, 2010

Contents
TABLES AND FIGURES...................................................................................................................... i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................. iii
1 PARTY COMPETITION OVER TIME: CONSTRAINTS ON SHIFTING PARTY
POLICY PLATFORMS 1
1.1 THE CHOICE OF PARTY POLICY POSITIONS AND PARTY POLICY SHIFTS................................... 1
1.1.1 The dominant role of the status quo .............................................................................. 3
1.1.2 How the status quo affects party policy shifts ............................................................... 4
1.1.3 Time and its consequences: How voters and intra-party structure constrain party
policy shifts.................................................................................................................... 5
1.2 VOTERS AND THEIR PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS.................................................. 6
1.3 INTRA-PARTY STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................... 9
1.4 THE ROAD AHEAD: STRUCTURE OF THE DISSERTATION........................................................ 11
2 LINKING PARTIES AND TIME: PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON THE EFFECT OF
RIVAL PARTIES, VOTERS, AND PARTY ORGANIZATIONS ........................................ 13
2.1 PARTIES AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT...................................................................................... 14
2.2ARTIES AND PARTY COMPETITION....................................................................................... 16
2.2.1 Parties and static party competition ........................................................................... 17
2.2.2 A dynamic perspective on party competition .............................................................. 19
2.3 PARTIES AND VOTERS............................................................................................................ 21
2.3.1 Voting and the role of information.............................................................................. 23
2.3.2 and the role of party “credibility”................................................................... 24
2.4 PARTIES AND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS ................................................................................... 25
2.4.1 The role and power of party members......................................................................... 25
2.4.2 Sources of income........................................................................................................ 27
2.5 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 29
3 THE RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS .......................... 30
3.1 THE VOTERS’ PERCEPTION OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS......................................................... 31
3.1.1 Developing the model: The reception and acceptance of party position shifts........... 33
3.1.2 The reception criterion................................................................................................ 33
3.1.3 The acceptance criterion............................................................................................. 34
3.2 VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE AND VOTE CHOICES ............................................... 35
3.3 PARTY REACTIONS TO THE VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE .................................... 37
3.3.1 Holding competitors’ and voters’ positions constant.................................................. 39
3.3.2 A dynamic model: party position shifts of all parties 43
3.3.3 Voter position shifts and their effects on party position shifts 45
3.4 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 48
4 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE ... 51
4.1 IMPACTS ON THE RECEPTION OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS..................................................... 51
4.1.1 Political awareness ..................................................................................................... 52
4.1.2 Education .................................................................................................................... 54
4.1.3 Updating information following voter position shifts ................................................. 55
4.1.4 Media exposure ........................................................................................................... 57
4.1.5 The complexity of the political market ........................................................................ 59
4.1.6 Magnitude of party position shifts............................................................................... 61
4.2 IMPACTS ON THE ACCEPTANCE OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS 62
4.2.1 Changes in party leadership ....................................................................................... 63
4.2.2 Prestige of political leaders ........................................................................................ 64
4.2.3 Party past behavior ..................................................................................................... 66
4.2.4 Party identification...................................................................................................... 67
4.2.5 Public opinion shifts.................................................................................................... 68
4.2.6 Party ideology ............................................................................................................. 70
4.3 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 73
5 VOTER PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN: DATA
AND METHODS......................................................................................................................... 76
5.1 DATA: THE BRITISH PANEL ELECTION STUDIES, 1974 – 2001............................................... 77
5.1.1 The dependent variable ............................................................................................... 77
5.1.2 Independent variables ................................................................................................. 80
5.1.3 Data structure and number of observations................................................................ 86
5.2 METHODS: A TWO-STAGE LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL .................................................... 86
5.3 SUMMARY 90
6 VOTER PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN:
RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 92
6.1 THE “NEW LABOUR” POLICY SHIFT ...................................................................................... 93
6.2HE PERCEPTION OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN 1974-2001 ....................... 100
6.2.1 Nationalization vs. Privatization............................................................................... 101
6.2.2 Taxes vs. Services...................................................................................................... 105
6.2.3 Unemployment vs. Inflation....................................................................................... 107
6.3 OVERVIEW: WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE DIFFERENT MODEL SPECIFICATIONS? ......... 110
6.3.1 An overview............................................................................................................... 110
6.3.2 Does political awareness matter? ............................................................................. 112
6.3.3 Are voters more likely to accept party shifts in line with their personal policy shifts?
................................................................................................................................... 113
6.3.4 Explaining contradicting effects................................................................................ 11