Social and Spatial Differentials in Age-Structural Transitions. Implications for Policies on Ageing - article ; n°3 ; vol.18, pg 399-410

Marie-Claire Lepina, Ian Pool

Description

Espace, populations, sociétés - Année 2000 - Volume 18 - Numéro 3 - Pages 399-410
Taking New Zealand as case-study, this paper shows that ageing involves far more than a simple shift from higher proportions of the total population at younger ages to the growth of concentrations at older ages. Yet, this is the model that often forms the base for policy-making. Instead, trajectories towards ageing (age-structural transitions) vary between national populations, and between regions within countries. Moreover, ageing per se will often be proceeded by population waves (large birth cohorts) and then troughs (small cohorts), a process termed disordered cohort flows. All these factors pose significant problems for policy-making, but clearly the traditional policy model must be refined so that it is more sensitive to these different trajectories.
Différences sociales et spatiales des transitions de structures par âge. Implications sur les politiques du vieillissement.
À partir de l'étude du cas de la Nouvelle-Zélande, cet article montre que le vieillissement est un phénomène qui va bien au-delà du passage de la concentration des effectifs de population aux jeunes âges à la concentration aux âges élevés. C'est néanmoins cette base qui sert souvent de référence à sa traduction en termes politiques. Pourtant les trajectoires du vieillissement (transitions des structures par âge) varient beaucoup d'un pays à l'autre et d'une région à l'autre à l'intérieur des pays. En outre, le vieillissement en lui-même est souvent perturbé par des vagues de population (successions de cohortes de naissances d'abord larges, puis étroites), processus qualifié de flux distordus de cohortes. Tous ces facteurs posent des problèmes politiques non négligeables, mais il est clair que le modèle politique traditionnel devrait être affiné de manière à intégrer les différences de trajectoires.
12 pages
Source : Persée ; Ministère de la jeunesse, de l’éducation nationale et de la recherche, Direction de l’enseignement supérieur, Sous-direction des bibliothèques et de la documentation.

Sujets

• Sociologie, société et politique

Informations

• Publié par: ESPACE-_POPULATIONS-_SOCIETES
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2000
• Nombre de lectures: 15
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Marie-Claire Lepina
Ian Pool
Social and Spatial Differentials in Age-Structural Transitions.
Implications for Policies on Ageing
In: Espace, populations, sociétés, 2000-3. Le vieillissement dans le monde. pp. 399-410.
Abstract
Taking New Zealand as case-study, this paper shows that "ageing" involves far more than a simple shift from higher proportions
of the total population at younger ages to the growth of concentrations at older ages. Yet, this is the model that often forms the
base for policy-making. Instead, trajectories towards ageing (age-structural transitions) vary between national populations, and
between regions within countries. Moreover, ageing per se will often be proceeded by "population waves" (large birth cohorts)
and then troughs (small cohorts), a process termed "disordered cohort flows". All these factors pose significant problems for
policy-making, but clearly the traditional policy model must be refined so that it is more sensitive to these different trajectories.
Résumé
Différences sociales et spatiales des transitions de structures par âge. Implications sur les politiques du vieillissement.
À partir de l'étude du cas de la Nouvelle-Zélande, cet article montre que le vieillissement est un phénomène qui va bien au-delà
du passage de la concentration des effectifs de population aux jeunes âges à la concentration aux âges élevés. C'est néanmoins
cette base qui sert souvent de référence à sa traduction en termes politiques. Pourtant les trajectoires du vieillissement
(transitions des structures par âge) varient beaucoup d'un pays à l'autre et d'une région à l'autre à l'intérieur des pays. En outre,
le vieillissement en lui-même est souvent perturbé par des "vagues de population" (successions de cohortes de naissances
d'abord larges, puis étroites), processus qualifié de flux distordus de cohortes. Tous ces facteurs posent des problèmes
politiques non négligeables, mais il est clair que le modèle politique traditionnel devrait être affiné de manière à intégrer les
différences de trajectoires.
Citer ce document / Cite this document :
Lepina Marie-Claire, Pool Ian. Social and Spatial Differentials in Age-Structural Transitions. Implications for Policies on Ageing.
In: Espace, populations, sociétés, 2000-3. Le vieillissement dans le monde. pp. 399-410.
http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/espos_0755-7809_2000_num_18_3_1960LEPINA l Population Studies Centre Marie-Claire
IanPOOL2 University of Waikato
Hamilton
Nouvelle-Zélande
[e-mail]
Social and Spatial
Differentials in Age-Structural
Transitions. Implications for
*
Policies on Ageing
Decision-makers and policy analysts typi cipally to fluctuations in cohort sizes, a pat
tern termed "disordered cohort flows" cally think of population ageing in terms of
concepts which are simplistic and based (Rowland 1996, citing Nathan Keyfitz; see
around the notion of monotonie trends. In Keyfitz 1968 : chap. 7 and 14 ; Coale 1972 :
reality, the pathways to ageing, that is age- chaps 4 to 6).
structural transitions (Pool 2000), will vary The problem posed by disordered cohort
between different social and cultural groups, flows stems from the fact that social and eco
and thus geographically. This paper will nomic policies normally address the needs of
show that the notion of a monotonie growth a particular life-cycle stage - education is
of ageing does not accord with reality, and delivered to children, labour market entry
that a failure to recognise this will produce policies to young adults, family policies and
poorly conceived policies. In turn, this housing to adults at parenting ages, savings could reinforce social inequalities and lead and retirement to the old. It is at this level, at
to socio-spatial patterns of exclusion. one or another life cycle phase, that populat
Using national level data on New Zealand, it ion waves will have an effect on policies,
hitting them with a "demographic shock" (to can be shown that this population's transi
tion deviates from the monotonie model. employ the evocative term of the Québécois
Each section of the age pyramid, which is demographer Georges Mathew 1984).
Moreover, in the case of New Zealand difsimply a graph representing percentages at
different life-cycle stages, will be battered, ferent waves and troughs will hit various life
cycle stages at the same time, a factor which from one decade to the next, by demographi
c "waves". These oscillations are due will increase the risks of competition and
* Acknowledgements This research was financed by 1 Research Fellow, Population Studies Centre,
the New Zealand Foundation for Research, Science and University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
Technology. 2 Director Population Studies Centre, University of
Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand 400
even inter-generational conflict (Pool 1999 ; tute the overwhelming majority of elderly
see also Heenan 1993). New Zealanders, whose ageing patterns are
This picture is not limited to New Zealand. foremost in the perspectives of policy make
rs. And these two populations are not alone Using data from the United Nations, this
paper will show that sometimes these effects in the country. There are other minorities of
whom the most important are Pacific Island will be more extreme than for New Zealand.
This is the case, for example, in Mexico, and Polynesians and Asians, both of whom (par
many other developing countries where fer ticularly Pacific Islanders) are concentrated
in the Auckland region. tility levels have declined rapidly.
As is true elsewhere, there is yet another Finally, New Zealand has not escaped from
major problem to be addressed by policy in the phenomenon of retirement migration,
New Zealand: there are social differentials typically of Pakeha, who shift to "sun-
in the pathways to ageing. Often these vari belts". In New Zealand these are eastern
and northern littorals of the North Island, ations will be due to cultural, socio-economi
c or spatial factors, or more typically a mix and around lakes on both major islands. The
of these. But faced with these problems, northern retirement zones are the antipodes
of the Straits of Gibraltar in Europe (see policies are typically weak and insensitive.
Using New Zealand data, we will demons map).
For all these reasons there are regional varitrate the spatial effects of these factors and
ations in patterns of ageing, and these have their policy implications. Culturally, the
significant policy implications. These difindigenous minority population, the Maori,
ferentials reinforce geographical variations follow a trajectory that is very different from
that of the majority, the Pakeha (the populat in other socio-economic, socio-cultural and
ion of European origin). For Maori, a demographic phenomena, and also have an
Polynesian ethnic group, ageing is due more impact on social inequalities.
to momentum effects and numerical increas We will set the context for the rest of the
es in the elderly population, whereas for paper by looking at age-structural transi
Pakeha ageing is of a structural sort, that is tions. Then we will look at the global con
to say a growth in the proportion of the total text to provide geographical comparisons
at older ages. But it is the structural ageing for New Zealand. Then we will look at spat
of the Pakeha population, who still ial differentials within New Zealand.
AGE-STRUCTURAL TRANSITIONS AND AGEING
Before presenting empirical results we will wider process of demographic transition,
provide a framework - on age-structural even if that is seen merely as constituting
transition - on which we have based our changes in dynamics (Pool 2000).
analyses. It must be stressed that ageing is In an earlier paper on which we draw Pool
merely the end point of processes of age- (2000) has formulated an age-structural
restructuring in the population. Moreover, transition framework composed of three
the term is ambiguous: sometimes it is used phases. In delineating these he uses the
to designate the process itself; more often it metaphor of "waves". The three phases are:
relates to the end point of the process. We 1 The initial phase of simple momentum
will use it here in its second sense - that is, subdivided into
when there are increases in the proportion of a) Constant growth.
the population at older ages, or when the b) Accelerating: producing "tidal waves"
numbers at advanced ages increase quickly. rather than ordinary waves (see also Loriaux
1990 :10). Age-structural transitions are consequences,
but also often determinants, of demographic 2 An intermediate phase of "population
waves" (Nathan Keyfitz, cited in Rowland transitions as traditionally conceived. In
1991). effect, therefore, it is a component of the :
401
Administrative Regions of New Zealand
Antipodes of the
North of N.Z.
PORTUGAL kilometres
The figures refer to rate of growth
1996 to 2016
TARANAKI 8I™1 ■■I Regions Concentrations with the of highest Maori -8% <