20080930-comment-lilliquist-population-projections

Michael Lilliquist

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• Publié par: Vuwyung
• Nombre de lectures: 37
• Langue: English

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Michael W. Lilliquist
1111 13th Street • Bellingham, WA 98225

September 30, 2008

Growth Management Coordinating Council
c/o Coordinating Staff, Whatcom County PDS
5280 Northwest Drive
Bellingham, WA 98226

Re: Population Projections for “Whatcom 2031”

I am writing this letter to ask the Growth Management Coordinating Council not to
adopt the proposed population projection of 257,000 residents for the year 2031. My
reason is that we need good planning, and a forward projection of past trends is simply
not good planning.
Genuine and effective planning does not just follow trends. Rather, planning should guide
trends. Good planning is positively driven by policies and a vision of where we want to
be in the future. First, we determine what end state would best serve the interests of the
people of Whatcom County, and then we fix policies and plans to accomplish this goal.
Simply projecting past trends forward does not do this. By simply accepting projections
of past trends, I fear the County would be abdicating its obligations and responsibility to
plan with the interests of the people in mind.
Put another way, the target population of 257,000 would be the number reached by a
business-as-usual scenario in which all policies and programs remain the same. But why
would we want take this road? What reasons have been given for this path? If the
GMCC accepts a population target, I believe that it needs to provide some justification
for this decision beyond the fact a number falls in the middle range of projections.
While some people may think that growth projections are a purely technical exercise, this
is not entirely true. In truth, it is the first and most important of many policy and
1planning decisions. As members of the Coordinating Council know, counties planning
under the GMA are given discretion to select within a range of projected values. The
purpose of this discretion is precisely because it is a policy choice – a planning decision
to be taken advisedly and with explicit intent. But what is the intent of simply accepting
the past as our only guide to the future?
                                                        
1 In the words of ECONorthwest: “…local governments create land use, transportation, and
infrastructure plans to accommodate the growth forecast. Those planning documents represent a series
of policy decisions. Thus, how much population a local government (particularly cities) chooses to
accommodate is also a policy decision. In short, the forecast and the plans based on the forecast represent
the city's future vision." Emphasis added.
Page 1 of 2 I would like the GMCC to allow more time for a fuller discussion of these issues, in
order to better incorporate a clearly identified set of directions and goals for Whatcom
County. This might also allow for greater public awareness and input into the process.
Based on what I have heard, many people in Whatcom County are concerned about the
2rapid pace of growth and the loss of our rural lands. They are concerned about the
threat that rapid growth presents to the long-term economic viability of our agricultural
lands. We want better preservation of our irreplaceable resource lands. We want a better
plan for, and achieve, compact and livable cities. We want to ease the enormous
financial strain of infrastructure costs that accompany rapid growth. If these are among
Whatcom County’s goals, then we need to adopt policies, plans, and – most importantly
– a population number that is consistent with these goals.
For these reasons and many more, I strongly urge the GMCC not to simply adopt the
middle number in the range projected by the OFM and consultants. At the very least, I
would like to the GMCC to delay accepting any single population target until a fuller
public participation process has been followed. As emphasized recently in an editorial by
Futurewise in the Bellingham Herald, it is far easier to adjust our estimates upward if the
need arises, but down zoning and reversing UGA designations are very difficult to
achieve.
Thank you for considering my comments on this very important matter. I look forward
to a new Comprehensive Plan for our county that reflects will truly preserve the long-
term livability and sustainability of our county, fulfilling both the spirit and the letter of
the Growth Management Act.

Sincerely,

Michael Lilliquist
                                                        
2 For example, question #61 of the Service Priorities and Customer Satisfaction Survey Bellingham
Voters, 2006; see http://www.cob.org/documents/mayor/2006-customer-satisfaction-survey.pdf 
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