Commerzbank Study: Africa's Economies Continue to Gain Ground

Informations

• Publié par: commerzbank-ag
• Nombre de lectures: 12
• Langue: English

Extrait

Commerzbank Study: Africa's Economies

Continue to Gain Ground

PR Newswire

FRANKFURT, Germany, June 27, 2012

FRANKFURT, Germany

,

June 27, 2012

/PRNewswire/ --

Countries benefit from the commodity boom and political stability

Growth impulses above all in the Sub-Saharan region

After the crises of the past, the economies of many African countries are

clearly heading for growth. Political and economic stability has increased above

all in the countries of the Sub-Saharan region. "Medium-term growth potential

in Sub-Saharan Africa ought to be about six per cent per annum in the years

ahead", a new study by Commerzbank, the second largest bank for private and

corporate customers in

Germany

, reveals. According to the study, countries

which manage to attract foreign investors could actually see even higher

growth, since investments like these frequently initiate or boost growth

momentum. With an economic growth forecast of 5.4 per cent for 2012, the

region is now already ranking directly behind front-runner

Asia

.

The commodity boom and the turnaround to stability-oriented economic policy

have increased the crisis-resistance of many countries in this region. Some of

the states have thus already recorded notable surpluses in current account and

government budget. The prerequisites for further economic growth, according

to the study, are a stable political framework and a large population which

allow higher economies of scale with fixed investment costs, plus good

availability of commodities. Countries which meet these criteria include in

particular

Nigeria

,

Ghana

,

Angola

and

Mozambique

. "The greatest challenge for

Sub-Saharan Africa is the demographic development. The labour force

potential, which is growing strongly because of the high population growth, can

only be absorbed by the creation of additional jobs", says Florian Witt, head of

the

Africa

department in Commerzbank's corporate banking. He remarks that

this can only succeed if the depth of value added is decisively increased - and

that, specifically, prevailing conditions call for such an increase mainly in the

commodity-processing industry and in the processing of agricultural products.

The signs point to a sustained positive development: "In the larger cities a

middle class is forming with a demand for increasingly higher-quality products.

The services sector and in particular finance will also benefit from this", adds

Rainer Schaefer, head of Commerzbank's Country Risk Analysis and one of the

authors of the study. He expects both the development of the infrastructure

and housing construction to give the building industry special momentum, and

sees opportunities above all in renewable energies, as well as in information

and communication technology.

However, in addition to the pleasing developments the study also reveals a

whole series of negative aspects. For instance, in some Sub-Saharan states -

such as

Sudan

and

Somalia

- civil war and economic chaos still prevail.

Moreover, bureaucratic obstacles and corruption often curb economic

development. Overall, 26 African countries have benefited from the debt relief

initiative of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund since 2004. In

return for the debt relief, these countries had undertaken to follow an

economic policy based on fixed criteria. This was also backed by the

turnaround in development aid, away from loans and towards non repayable

grants, after the assistance loans in the eighties and nineties had led to the

over-indebtedness of many African countries

With 6 representative offices between

Cairo

and

Johannesburg

, and 500 bank

customers and 250 institutional customers, Commerzbank is the no. 1 German-

speaking bank for corporate customer transactions in

Africa

. It has now been

active there for 60 years, maintaining business relations with banks and state

institutions in 50 of the 53 countries on the African continent. It cooperates

above all with governments, local banks and central banks.

The study can be downloaded under:

https://www.commerzbank.de/media/research/economic_research/2012/0620/afrika.pdf

or: http://ots.de/E7yOJ

Press contact:

Martin Halusa: Tel. [phone]

Kirsten Böddeker: Tel. [phone]