Frost & Sullivan: Opportunities in Emerging Economies to Offset Declining Prospects for Coal-Fired Power across Mature Geographies

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• Publié par: frost-sullivan
• Nombre de lectures: 7
• Langue: English

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Frost & Sullivan: Opportunities in Emerging

Economies to Offset Declining Prospects for

Coal-Fired Power across Mature Geographies

PR Newswire

LONDON, June 28, 2012

- Global demand for coal-fired power generation will be fuelled

primarily by China and India

LONDON

,

June 28, 2012

/PRNewswire/ -- Over the next 25 years, the world will

become significantly more dependent on electricity produced from various

sources, including coal, to meet its energy needs. Global electricity generation

is expected to grow from 21,224 Terawatt hours (TWh) in 2010 to 33,370 TWh

in 2030. Coal will continue to hold an increasing share in the energy mix of

emerging countries since it is one of the most affordable sources of energy

with abundant reserves across the world and particular concentration in

the

United States

,

Russia

,

China

,

Australia

and

India

.

New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (http://www.energy.frost.com),

Global

Prospects for Coal-Fired Power Generation

, finds that

China

is expected

to have unprecedented growth with about 945 GW and 1,040 GW of total coal-

fired capacity in 2020 and 2030, respectively.

India

, on the other hand, will

have 201 GW and 267 GW of coal capacity in 2020 and 2030, respectively.

Domestic power demand and capacity shortages will be the key market drivers

for both countries.

"

North America

and the European Union will continue to be key markets for

coal due to large units of capacity decommissioning, which means large MW

capacity orders as replacements," noted Frost & Sullivan Industry Director

Harald Thaler. "However, prospects for coal-fired power generation in

Europe

and

North America

are currently looking bleak due to the threat of tougher

regulations, uncertainties over future carbon prices and the development of

carbon capture and storage (CCS), rising engineering procurement and

construction (EPC) costs, and low gas prices."

These factors deter investors from investing in new plants across

North

America

and the EU. In

Asia

, the opposite trend can be observed, with massive

investments continuing in new plants with substantial potential for major

upgrades to existing plants, some of which are less than a decade old. The coal

boom in

Asia

is projected to continue for the next decade.

"

China

,

India

, and the rest of

Asia

are the key focus areas for coal-fired

investment in the coming decade," explained Thaler. "Strong projected

electricity demand growth and low production costs make the region attractive

for both domestic and global participants."

Indonesia

and

Vietnam

will emerge as major countries fuelling demand for

coal-fired generation.

Japan

and Korea will offer limited prospects while

Australia

, which is rich in fossil fuel, will experience strong growth. Increasing

domestic demand and need to replace ageing capacity will accelerate demand

in

Russia

as well. However, reliance on gas and oil in the

Middle East

, on

hydroelectric power in

South America

and poor infrastructure and political