Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

Society Of Actuaries, Schaumburg, University Of Illinois, U.S.A.

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Colorado Springs - Impact of Terrorism on Future Mortality Assumptions

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• Arts

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• Publié par: ycyzadom
• Nombre de lectures: 46
• Langue: English

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1

SOA Scenario Presentation

Scenarios

P Bishop, 4/22/02

The following are scenarios on plausible outcomes to the attacks of September 11 and the ensuing war on

terrorism.

The left-hand column briefly describes each scenario and the right hand column extracts the dimensions

of uncertainty inherent in that scenario.

International Study on Counterterrorism, the Millennium Project, a global

foresight project sponsored by the American Council of the United Nations

University (

http://www.geocities.com/~acunu//millennium/antiterrorism.html

)

Drivers, uncertainties

ESCALATION:

A long war involving attack and counter attack through

biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are

attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it

is a long war. (Gordon)

War

-

- escalation vs

stalemate vs decline

Length

-

- short vs long

COUNTER MINDSET:

Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism as

reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and

arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit.

They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right. The strategies

followed by the international community addressed this mindset. Television,

radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce the idea

that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration of the right and

proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for Development" gave reason for

people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. In short, this was an “intellectual

arms race” (Glenn)

Islamic relation with

West

-

- better vs

same vs worse

Islamic influence on

West

-

- some vs none

ROOT CAUSES:

The US led military war against terrorism failed to end

terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving the provision of

minimal standards of health, education, services and housing, worldwide. After a

short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements,

terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis was placed on education by

nations of the world to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to

attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. (Gutierrez)

US military objectives

-

-

succeed vs fail

US response

-

- force vs

development

Terrorism

-

- more vs

same vs less

SOCRATIC JUSTICE:

The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer.

The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to

do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then

focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)

Response

-

- unilateral

(U.S.) vs multilateral

(U.N.)

THE WILD WEST:

US and Allied military strikes led to endless escalation in a

war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the process of decline, with

terror meeting terror. The CIA got back into business on a big scale. Nations

already poor became poorer. (Inayatullah)

War

-

- won vs stalemate

vs lost

Result for poor countries

-

- better vs same vs

worse