Modelling alcohol consumption during adolescence using zero inflated negative binomial and decision trees

Elena Gervilla

Description

Abstract
Alcohol is currently the most consumed substance among the Spanish adolescent population. Some of the variables that bear an influence on this consumption include ease of access, use of alcohol by friends and some personality factors. The aim of this study was to analyze and quantify the predictive value of these variables specifically on alcohol consumption in the adolescent population. The useful sample was made up of 6,145 adolescents (49.8% boys and 50.2% girls) with a mean age of 15.4 years (SE= 1.2). The data were analyzed using the statistical model for a count variable and Data Mining techniques. The results show the influence of ease of access, alcohol consumption by the group of friends, and certain personality factors on alcohol intake, allowing us to quantify the intensity of this influence according to age and gender. Knowing these factors is the starting point in elaborating specific preventive actions against alcohol consumption.
Resumen
El alcohol es actualmente la sustancia más consumida entre la población española adolescente. Algunas de las variables que influyen en su consumo incluyen la facilidad de acceso, el uso de alcohol por parte de los amigos y algunos factores de personalidad. El objetivo del presente estudio era analizar y cuantificar el valor predictivo de estas variables específicamente sobre el consumo de alcohol en la población adolescente. La muestra útil estuvo formada por 6,145 adolescentes (49.8% chicos y 50.2% chicas) con una edad media de 15.4 años (ES=1.2). Los datos fueron analizados a través del modelado estadístico de una variable de recuento y técnicas Data Mining. Los resultados pusieron de manifiesto la influencia en el consumo de alcohol de la facilidad de acceso, el consumo de alcohol por parte del grupo de amigos y de factores de personalidad, cuantificándose la intensidad de dicha influencia en función de la edad y el género. El conocimiento de estos factores constituye el punto de partida en la elaboración de actuaciones preventivas concretas para el consumo de alcohol.

Sujets

• Drinking culture
• Data mining
• Decision tree
• Arboles de decision

Informations

• Publié par: erevistas
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2010
• Nombre de lectures: 11
• Langue: English

Extrait

ISSN: 1889-1861 The European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context, 2010, 2(2)
www.usc.es/sepjf


THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL
OF
PSYCHOLOGY APPLIED
TO
LEGAL CONTEXT








Volume 2, Number 2, July 2010










The official Journal of the
SOCIEDAD ESPAÑOLA DE PSICOLOGÍA JURÍDICA Y FORENSE
Website: http://www.usc.es/sepjf Editor

Ramón Arce, University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain).

Associate Editors

Gualberto Buela-Casal, University of Granada (Spain).
Francisca Fariña, University of Vigo (Spain).

Editorial Board

Rui Abrunhosa, University of O Miño (Portugal).
Ray Bull, University of Leicester (UK).
Thomas Bliesener, University of Kiel (Germany).
Fernando Chacón, Complutense University of Madrid (Spain).
Ángel Egido, University of Angers (France).
Antonio Godino, University of Lecce (Italy).
Günter Köhnken, University of Kiel (Germany).
Friedrich Lösel, University of Cambridge (UK).
María Ángeles Luengo, University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain).
Eduardo Osuna, University of Murcia (Spain).
Ronald Roesch, Simon Fraser University (Canada).
Francisco Santolaya, President of the Spanish Psychological Association (Spain).
Juan Carlos Sierra, University of Granada (Spain).
Jorge Sobral, University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain).
Max Steller, Free University of Berlin, (Germany).
Francisco Tortosa, University of Valencia (Spain).




Official Journal of the Sociedad Española de Psicología Jurídica y Forense
(www.usc.es/sepjf)
Published By: SEPJF.
Volume 2, Number, 2.
Order Form: see www.usc.es/sepjf
Frequency: 2 issues per year.
ISSN: 1889-1861.



The European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context, 2010, 2(2)
www.usc.es/sepjf


CONTENTS
Articles
Judicial judgement-making and legal criteria of testimonial credibility
Mercedes Novo and Dolores Seijo 91

Juvenile delinquency and young offender: bibliographical and
bibliometric review of two perspectives of study
Francisco Javier Rodríguez, Luis Rodríguez-Franco,
Javier López-Cepero, and Carolina Bringas 117

Modelling alcohol consumption during adolescence
using zero inflated negative binomial and decision trees
Elena Gervilla, Berta Cajal, Joan Roca, and Alfonso Palmer 145

Mobile phone quality vs. Direct quality:
How the presentation format affects earwitness identification accuracy
Lisa Öhman, Anders Eriksson, and Pär Anders Granhag 161

A stepwise approach to identify intellectual disabilities
in the criminal justice system
Erik Søndenaa, Tom Palmstierna, and Valentina Cabral Iversen 183
The European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context, 2010, 2(2): 145-159
www.usc.es/sepjf


MODELLING ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION DURING
ADOLESCENCE USING ZERO INFLATED NEGATIVE
BINOMIAL AND DECISION TREES


Elena Gervilla, Berta Cajal, Joan Roca, and Alfonso Palmer

University of the Balearic Islands (Spain).

(Received 17 December 2009; revised 15 March 2010; accepted 18 March 2010)


Abstract Resumen
Alcohol is currently the most consumed El alcohol es actualmente la sustancia más
substance among the Spanish adolescent population. consumida entre la población española adolescente.
Some of the variables that bear an influence on this Algunas de las variables que influyen en su
consumption include ease of access, use of alcohol consumo incluyen la facilidad de acceso, el uso de
by friends and some personality factors. The aim of alcohol por parte de los amigos y algunos factores
this study was to analyze and quantify the predictive de personalidad. El objetivo del presente estudio era
value of these variables specifically on alcohol analizar y cuantificar el valor predictivo de estas
consumption in the adolescent population. The variables específicamente sobre el consumo de
useful sample was made up of 6,145 adolescents alcohol en la población adolescente. La muestra útil
(49.8% boys and 50.2% girls) with a mean age of estuvo formada por 6,145 adolescentes (49.8%
15.4 years (SE= 1.2). The data were analyzed using chicos y 50.2% chicas) con una edad media de 15.4
the statistical model for a count variable and Data años (ES=1.2). Los datos fueron analizados a través
Mining techniques. The results show the influence del modelado estadístico de una variable de
of ease of access, alcohol consumption by the group recuento y técnicas Data Mining. Los resultados
of friends, and certain personality factors on alcohol pusieron de manifiesto la influencia en el consumo
intake, allowing us to quantify the intensity of this de alcohol de la facilidad de acceso, el consumo de
influence according to age and gender. Knowing alcohol por parte del grupo de amigos y de factores
these factors is the starting point in elaborating de personalidad, cuantificándose la intensidad de
specific preventive actions against alcohol dicha influencia en función de la edad y el género.
consumption. El conocimiento de estos factores constituye el
punto de partida en la elaboración de actuaciones
Keywords: zero inflated negative binomial model, preventivas concretas para el consumo de alcohol.
drinking behavior, social drinking, data mining,
decision trees, adolescence. Palabras clave: modelo binomial negativa de
ceros hinchados, consumo de alcohol, bebedor
social, data mining, árboles de decisión,
adolescencia.




Correspondence: Elena Gervilla. Ctra. Valldemossa, km 7.5, 07122 Palma de Mallorca, Spain. E-mail:
[e-mail]


ISSN 1889-1861 © The European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context
146 E. Gervilla et al.


Introduction

Alcohol is currently the most consumed substance among the Spanish
population between 14 and 18 years of age, with the percentage of school children
within this age group having consumed during the last year reaching 72.9% (Delegación
del Gobierno para el Plan Nacional sobre Drogas, 2008). In this sense, the phenomenon
of binge drinking in a public place has played an important role (Gual, 2006).
The consequences of alcohol abuse in adolescence have been widely described
(Bentler, 1992) and include physical, neuropsychological, social and economic
repercussions, with traffic accidents and greater odds of having alcohol-related
problems in adulthood standing out (Rohde, Lewinsohn, Kahler, Seeley, & Brown,
2001). Another of the relevant consequences of the (early) use of alcohol is the greater
odds of using illegal drugs in the future (Johnson, Boles, & Kleber, 2000). Along these
lines, the escalation theory postulates that there are sequential steps in drug initiation,
beginning with legal drugs which will make the later use of illegal drugs easier (Kandel
& Logan, 1984; Kandel & Yamaguchi, 1993; Kandel, Yamaguchi, & Chen, 1992).
Some of the explanatory variables that stand out due to their influence on drug
consumption in adolescence include environmental variables such as ease of access to
the substances or the use of these by the peer group (Ciairano, Bosma, Miceli &
Settanni, 2008; Dick et al., 2007; Morojele et al., 2002; Scholte, Poelen, Willemsen,
Boomsma, & Engels, 2008). What is more, a relationship between the consumption of
addictive substances and certain personality factors such as antisocial behaviour,
sensation-seeking or impulsivity, has been observed (Franken, Muris, & Georgieva,
2006; Hittner & Swickert, 2006; Wong et al., 2006). Therefore, the causal models
developed to predict the use of alcohol, tobacco and other drugs include regulations,
substance availability, and certain individual factors (Birkmayer, Holder, Yacoubian, &
Friend, 2004).
On the other hand, it should be in mind the different changes in maturity
occurring in adolescence which have been related to the consumption of alcohol and
other drugs (Brown et al., 2008; Niemäl et al., 2006; Schulenberg & Maggs, 2002;
Tarter, 2002), or the differential development by gender shown by predictive factors
(Bloor, 2006; Cleveland, Feinberg, Bontempo & Greenberg, 2008; White et al., 2006;
Yeh, Chiang & Huang, 2006).

The European Journal of Psychology Applied to Legal Context, 2010, 2(2): 145-159
Modelling alcohol consumption during adolescence 147

The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the predictive value of
different personality and environmental variables on alcohol consumption in the
adolescent population using appropriate modelling techniques and Data Mining tools.


Method

Participants
Random cluster sampling was carried out in schools in Mallorca (Spain), from
which 47 schools were selected out of 122. Thus, the total sample was made up of 9,300
students aged between 14 and 18 years.