Niveau: Supérieur, Doctorat, Bac+8
Bounds On Treatment E?ects On Transitions? Geert Ridder† Johan Vikstrom‡ May 17, 2011 Abstract This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment e?ects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment e?ect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at di?erent rates, randomization only ensures the compara- bility of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment e?ects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment e?ects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. propor- tional hazards, that would narrow the bounds or even allow for point identification. We also explore the e?ects on the bounds of various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes. ?We are grateful for helpful suggestions from John Ham, Per Johansson, Michael Svarer, Gerard van den Berg, and seminar participants at IFAU-Uppsala, Uppsala University, University of Aarhus and University of Mannheim. Financial support of the Tom Hedelius Foundation and the NSF grants SES 0819612 and 0819638 is acknowledged. †University of Southern California, . ‡IFAU-Uppsala and UCLS, . 1
- time treated
- treatment e?ects
- control units
- transition rate
- over time
- sim- ilar control
- rate change
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