Empirical Analysis of the Aggregate Offers to Buy or Sell Electricity on the French Day Ahead Market from to

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Niveau: Supérieur, Doctorat, Bac+8
Paper for IAEE 9th European Conference in Florence 10-12 June 2007 Empirical Analysis of the Aggregate Offers to Buy or Sell Electricity on the French Day-Ahead Market from 2002 to 2005 Margaret Armstrong & Alain Galli Cerna, Ecole des Mines de Paris 60 Bvd Saint-Michel, 75272 Paris, France Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis of the aggregated offers to buy and sell electricity on the French bourse, Powernext, from 2002 to mid 2005; that is from soon after its creation in November 2001 and ends before the coupling of the French, Belgian and Dutch markets in 2006. We show how these curves have evolved over this time, especially during difficult periods such as the March 2005 cold snap when the supply barely exceeds the demand. A detailed analysis highlighted the importance of three parameters: the maximum volumes offered for sale and for purchase (SVolmax and BVolmax) together with the volume actually traded (denoted by Volume). The day-ahead price is quite well correlated with the ratios BVolmax/SVolmax ; the ratio SVolmax/Volume gives a good indication of the stress level seen by the market. In addition we have studied the impact of virtual power plants, VPP, on the aggregated curves and hence the day-ahead prices.

  • fixing prices

  • western european

  • market power

  • energy markets

  • market

  • national markets

  • plant

  • demand increases

  • capacity available

  • ratio bvolmax


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Abstract  Paper for IAEE 9th European Conference in Florence 10-12 June 2007 Empirical Analysis of the Aggregate Offers to Buy or Sell Electricity on the French Day-Ahead Market from 2002 to 2005  Margaret Armstrong & Alain Galli Cerna, Ecole des Mines de Paris 60 Bvd Saint-Michel, 75272 Paris, France margaret.armstrong@ensmp.fr This paper presents an empirical analysis of the aggregated offers to buy and sell electricity on the French bourse, Powernext, from 2002 to mid 2005; that is from soon after its creation in November 2001 and ends before the coupling of the French, Belgian and Dutch markets in 2006. We show how these curves have evolved over this time, especially during difficult periods such as the March 2005 cold snap when the supply barely exceeds the demand. A detailed analysis highlighted the importance of three parameters: the maximum volumes offered for sale and for purchase (SVolmax and BVolmax) together with the volume actually traded (denoted by Volume). The day-ahead price is quite well correlated with the ratios BVolmax/SVolmax ; the ratio SVolmax/Volume gives a good indication of the stress level seen by the market. In addition we have studied the impact of virtual power plants, VPP, on the aggregated curves and hence the day-ahead prices.  
Acknowledgements: This work was carried out as part of a research consortium on modelling electricity prices funded by seven groups actively involved in the French electricity market: Capgemini, Electricité de France, Electrabel, Gaz de France, Powernext, Poweo and RTE. We would like to thank them for their support throughout the project. Special thanks are due to Powernext for providing the aggregated curves and for their permission to publish, and in particular to Audrey Mahuet for her help and advice. We would also like to thank the EDF webmaster for his help with the strike prices of VPP.