Tutorial

Informations

• Publié par: Vyof
• Nombre de lectures: 69
• Langue: English

Extrait

TUTORIAL If you wish only barebone instructions on running CompuTrak Handicapper 2005, please see our separate “Quick Start” guide, available from the CompuTrak menus. This Tutorial will show a simple way to begin handicapping and demonstrate how to choose profitable winning horses, by just using the “Oddsline and Summary Report.” More indepth handicapping can be performed by with the CompuTrak “Extensive” and “Chart” Reports. Reading both the “User’s Manual” and “Handicapping with CompuTrak 2005”documents givesyou a full description of CompuTrak how to use the program.

Successful handicapping is now easier than ever. Now, for fastandefficient handicapping you need only CompuTrak’s OddsLine and Summary.As you know, horses with lower odds have higher probabilities of winning.Using the OddsLine and Summary information, a handicapper can find these, and other very important occurrences, the very source of a successful handicapper’s soughtafter profits. Using CompuTrakyou can find these occurrences with confidence.We will demonstrate this to you shortly with a few examples.

CompuTrak provides answers to key questions like these:

Which horses, based on the odds, have the higher probability of winning? Which of the previous pacelines predicts the best finish time for a particular race? What does the most recent paceline predict for a particular race’s finish time? What are a horse’s Early Speed, Closing Capability, and Present Form?

Always keep in mind the obvious: your most important goal as a handicapper is to earn a profit.This requires betting on horses only when the risktoreward is favorable, ignoring those races where, in your judgment, the risktoreward is notfavorable. Wedesigned CompuTrak to help you make these very important judgments—of when to wager, how much to wager, and when to skip the race!

How? Veryoften the winning horse is the one having at least one of these attributes:

The lowest OddsLine odds. The best Predicted Finish Time. The Highest Early Speed. The Lowest Friction The Best Present Form.

Your confidence increases even more when a horse possesses more than one of these attributes simultaneously, all of which derive from solid engineering principles (fully described in CompuTrak documentation)

By simply scanning CompuTrak’s OddsLineand Summary report and by considering the actual odds of the horses, a handicapper will often find very favorable risktoreward scenarios.

The best way to illustrate this is by an example of what one might expect on a typical race day (in this case July 31, 2004, at Del Mar). We present here the CompuTrak OddsLine and Summary for that day with highlighting and

commentary added for illustrative clarity.

The day we have chosen for this example is a good day for illustrating CompuTrak’s power in finding a winner, and for showing how you can use CompuTrak’s informationin your own wagering decisions.It also illustrates some races where, as is normal in horse racing, the winner would probably not have been chosen.

This example uses only CompuTrak’s OddsLine and Summary Report.It’s worth noting here that CompuTrak produces a much more extensive report , but its description is beyond the scope of this tutorial.Please refer to our complete documentation for more information.

Definitions.

CompuTrak OddsLine and Summary Example.

For convenience, the definitions of the abbreviated column headings of the CompuTrak output are shown here. (They are also shown in AppendixA, of the “User’s Manual.”)

PgNo/ML/Post/Name OL BT BDS BPL RT RDS RPL RES RF RecRslt RecCls DTLR FM:TOT/WO/RC PL’S

Program Number/Morning Line/Post Position/Horse Name OddsLine Best Time Best Distance and Surface (Surface shown only if different from today’s) Best Paceline (Paceline number for Best Time and Distance) Recent Time Recent Distance and Surface (Surface shown only if different from today’s) Recent Paceline (Paceline number for Recent Time and Distance) Recent Speed Recent Friction Post, Internal Call Positions\Finish/Number of Entries Recent Class Days to Last Race Form: Total/Due to Workouts/Due to Races Number of Pacelines Actually Processed

st The DelMar July31 Example

Here we show the actual CompuTrak output, with added commentary.

For this example, we used CompuTrak’s default values, conveniently set by clicking the “Use Default Values” button.These default values are the recommended settings when learning CompuTrak.The meaning of these settings are fully described in the online help and the complete documentation.Brief help descriptions are also available by clicking the “?” symbol in the upperright of CompuTrak’s main window and then clicking the screen item with which you need help.

 Numberof pacelines processed: All  SpeedFactor Multiplier: Default Value of 1.

 FormFactor Multiplier:Default Value of 1.  MagicFactor Multiplier: Default Value of 1.  DistanceLimit Number:Default Value Maximum 18 (21/4 miles)  SurfaceRestriction is: Off.

Now let’s look at the first race. RACE No. 1Jul 31 2004 DMR5.5f/D S/49000/892 year olds only. Fillies only.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  4/1.40/3SHE' 1.8263.7 51 63.75 197 2989,2,1\2/10 fMdSpWt/43000 26240/ 215/ 251  5/4.00/4ANTI 7.8866.4 5T1 66.45T 196 3424,1,1\5/6 fMdSpWt/4300041 113/113/ 01  7/8.00/7WILD 2.8165.6 52 67.26 194 3383,4,5\9/11 fLandalucG326 346/339/ 74  1A/15.00/8ASHE 2.7065.7 51 65.75 193 2526,8,6\6/10 fMdSpWt/43000 26128/ 119/ 91  FIRSTTIME STARTERS 2/Race No1 GIRLYG ML: 15.00SF/AP: 7500/110000FORM: 160  3/Race No1 SWIFTW ML: 15.00SF/AP: 15000/85000FORM: 34  1/Race No1 SOSTIL ML: 15.00SF/AP: 10000/n.a.FORM: 47  6/Race No1 SHE'SA ML: 8.00SF/AP: 6000/190000FORM: 130  8/Race No1 SWEETC ML: 3.00SF/AP: 500000/n.a.FORM: 253 We see, at once, that horse No. 4 has the lowest OddsLine odds, (OL) i.e., highest probability of winning, plus the best recent time taken from a race of appropriate distance, (RDS), and very good Form. With so much going for the horse, awin wager can be made with some confidence. Confidence is high enough so that the wage can be made even though the final odds are low. The race results were 4, 8, 7. The chosen horse won paying $4.80. Note that the place horse, No. 8, was the first time starter with good Form, and the Show horse had the very best Form and ran in a stakes race. An exacta or trifecta box might be considered, although, not as obvious as choosing the winner.  Race 2 RACE No. 2Jul 31 2004 DMR8.5f/D C/40000/44000/953 year olds and up. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/2.50/1HECA 4.88103.8 8.53 104.18.5 1 88112 1,5,4\1/8Clm32000 2674/ 6/ 6810  2/4.00/2ARBI 5.45104.1 810 105.88T 184 63 5,3,4\7/10Clm40000 1461/ 27/ 3410  3/1.40/3BALD 3.13101.1 6.5T 10103.8 6.51 92170 5,5,5\4/7Alw47800n1x 44151/ 151/ 010  4/3.50/4EYE 5.0499.3 6.5T9 104.98.5 1 85 67 7,7,4\2/8Clm50000 13384/ 84/ 010  5/12.00/5MALM 5.34103.9 8.57 107.510T 1 7754 5,5,6\5/8Clm40000 4146/ 46/ 09  6/12.00/6BUT 8.14104.3 8T6 106.38.5T 179 283,4,5\5/5 Alw50000n1x28 115/107/ 810 Results: 2,1,4Winner paid $12.00None of the data would have chosen the winner. 

Race 3 RACE No. 3Jul 31 2004 DMR5.5f/D S/49000/902 year olds only. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  4/2.50/4CASH 0.0065.0 5.5T1 65.05.5T 195 2723,2,1\2/10 MdSpWt/4300021 118/90/ 281  Scratched.  FIRSTTIME STARTERS 1/Race No3 DECLAN'ML: 6.00SF/AP: 10000/125000FORM: 43  2/Race No3 NEVERA ML: 3.50SF/AP: 35000/900000FORM: 71  3/Race No3 CADILLAML: 6.00SF/AP: 50000/n.a.FORM: 53  5/Race No3 CURRENCML: 6.00SF/AP: 17500/230000FORM: 151  6/Race No3 SURETH ML: 15.00SF/AP: 2500/60000FORM: 79  7/Race No3 BOSTONML: 8.00SF/AP: 23576/40000FORM: 43 

8/Race No3 CASHMULML: 5.00SF/AP: 7000/250000FORM: 114 Here we have a situation where there are a large number of First Time Starters. (In fact the only non first timer was scratched, so all the horses in the race were first timers. It usually is prudent to skip such a race. Results: 1, 5, 8Winner Paid $31.40

Race 4 RACE No. 4Jul 31 2004 DMR8f/T G2/150000/973 year olds only. Fillies only.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/2.00/1VICT 6.3595.8 9D2 97.08D 188 1036,6,8\6/8 fAcornG157 78/78/ 010  2/1.40/2MISS 3.2097.5 81 97.58 184 31 4,1,1\1/8fFlawlessly100k 28 85/21/ 642  3/4.00/3BONA 2.0993.2 5.51 93.25.5 1 87 27 1,5,4\3/5fOC80000n2x 1657/ 48/ 91  4/15.00/4SHAD 5.7296.1 5D8 98.18 180 352,7,7\5/7 fOC80000n1x22 37/26/ 118  5/3.00/5SWEE 5.5498.8 8.51 98.88.5 1 7860 8,7,5\1/10fAlw23000n2l 4892/ 92/ 04 Here we have a route race on Turf. We have pointed out, (see “Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing”) that low Friction horses have the better closing capability. We also mentioned, in the discussion above, that low Friction is important in Route races, especially Turf. We note that in this Turf route, that horse #5 has the lowest Recent Friction, (RF) from an appropriate race, and also has the best Form. The actual final odds of the horse makes wagering on her appropriate. Results: 5, 2, 1 The chosen horse won paying $18.60. 

Race 5 RACE No. 5Jul 31 2004 DMR7f/D C/50000/46000/983 year olds and up. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/6.00/1LOOK 10.2481.8 5.5T8 85.78T 186 1002,1,1\5/6 Clm50000c27 91/81/ 1010  2/5.00/2DAUP 5.8481.5 69 83.56.5 1 88 90 4,6,6\5/7Clm50000 3871/ 62/ 910  3/10.00/3WINN 9.9182.7 63 86.08.5 1 84 49 7,5,4\5/8Alamedanh50k 2081/ 68/ 1310  4/5.00/4PELI 5.6581.9 610 83.86.5 1 93198 3,8,7\6/9Clm32000c 281121/ 121/ 010  5/4.00/5POTR 6.0882.2 6.510 86.28.5T 184 52 2,2,1\5/8Clm62500 49251/ 251/ 010  6/8.00/6CLAS 6.4083.5 63 84.28.5 1 90136 3,3,3\3/7Alw58000n1x 36444/ 44/ 05  7/3.00/7BEYO 5.9582.5 610 83.25.5T 189 1055,4,4\4/6 Clm6250034 159/151/ 810  8/6.00/8THE 8.7481.6 66 86.28.5T 190 1985,2,4\6/7 OC50000n2x48 41/41/ 010 Results: 8,7,2Winner Paid $13.60.None of the data would have chosen the winner. 

Race 6 RACE No. 6Jul 31 2004 DMR8f/D C/12500/20000/873 year olds and up. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/2.50/1HOT 7.4495.4 7.58 99.08.5 1 90183 6,3,3\5/7Clm40000c 4811/ 11/ 010  2/3.00/2CHAR 8.3395.7 75 98.38.5 1 87112 6,4,3\3/7Clm20000c 2826/ 6/ 2010  3/8.00/3NICE 8.7296.2 610 99.58.5T 185 95 7,3,3\2/11sDwtpttrsnh40k 9861/ 61/ 010  4/15.00/4HALL 9.9497.1 88 103.28.5 1 89223 3,6,8\8/8Clm10000c 34161/ 152/ 910  5/12.00/5UNCL 9.6998.6 910 99.87 190 1704,5,5\6/7 Clm20000c37 28/20/ 810  Scratched  6/6.00/6MARG 7.4695.4 610 99.08.5 1 86106 6,6,4\1/7Clm10000 13123/ 41/ 8210  7/10.00/7THE 11.3396.5 5.5T1 96.55.5T 187 70 10,8,8\9/10 Clm4000026 58/52/ 64  Scratched  8/15.00/8INDI 10.1797.2 7.5T3 100.56 188 1671,7,7\7/7 Alw41573n1x48 88/88/ 03  9/8.00/9BRIN 9.2796.8 67 98.88T 180 232,6,8\7/9 Clm2000048 60/60/ 010  11/12.00/11QUE 8.9896.2 63 100.18.5 1 83 58 8,7,7\5/9Clm16000 1074/ 37/ 3710 nd Results 2, 1, 6. The winner had the 2best odds, and the placer had the best odds. In addition the winner had the best Recent Time (RT), from an appropriate race. Winner paid $8.80  Race 7 RACE No. 7Jul 31 2004 DMR8.5f/D A/58000/963 year olds and up. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/3.50/1ASAT 6.44104.1 6.53 104.78.5 1 86 93 7,5,3\1/12MdSpWt/50000 302373/ 373/ 03  2/3.00/2LIND 8.66102.7 6.58 103.08.5 1 87 94 2,5,3\2/8OC80000n1x 2053/ 19/ 3410

 3/5.00/3OCH 7.14101.2 75 103.48.5 1 85 54 7,7,4\1/8Clm32000c 4829/ 29/ 07  4/2.50/4BRAN 7.59104.5 91 104.59 183 41 4,6,6\5/6SwapsbcG2 21124/ 113/ 115  5/12.00/5OUTO 5.87101.5 66 103.06 191 1494,4,3\1/6 Md6250037 62/26/ 366  6/8.00/6SEA 12.01102.6 5T5 104.28.5 1 89146 3,4,5\3/8OC80000n1x 20111/ 88/ 238  1A/3.50/7AFLA 6.93102.9 75 106.58.5 1 87125 1,6,6\5/7Alw50900n1x 6952/ 52/ 05  7/8.00/8FORT 9.06105.1 9T5 105.38.5 1 89127 4,3,5\2/8Alw52100n1x 4547/ 47/ 05  8/20.00/9MASB 12.34103.2 6.5T4 104.26.5 1 86 85 4,7,7\7/7Alw47800n1x 4467/ 67/ 05 Results: Winner paid $14.80. None of the data would have chosen the winner.

Race 8

RACE No. 8Jul 31 2004 DMR8f/T N/75000/973 year olds and up. No sex restrictions.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  1/5.00/1GOLD 8.0696.3 8D4 97.68.5D 186 89 1,3,3\3/8Alamedanh50k 2085/ 63/ 2210  2/1.60/2BUDD 8.7294.1 6.59 95.27.5D 194 1838,3,3\2/8 Ackackh75k61 110/110/ 010  3/4.50/3GOLD 4.4893.2 5.54 96.68 185 52 3,2,2\2/7OC100000n3x 3854/ 26/ 2810  4/6.00/4STAT 5.1896.6 85 97.88.5 1 8112 1,1,1\4/5Alw62372n1m 26285/ 275/ 1010  5/6.00/5BONU 8.9995.9 8D6 97.08.5D 186 75 8,6,3\4/8Alw64600nc 27090/ 90/ 010  6/8.00/6NEED 4.0290.5 5.54 97.98 185 76 9,9,9\9/10MakrsmrkG2 113125/ 125/ 04  7/6.00/7SEIN 5.9997.1 8.5D 1098.0 8.51 7884 2,5,5\2/5Alw62372n1m 2644/ 23/ 2110 nd Another routerace on turf where Friction, is important. Winner, No. 4 had good Friction, (2Best) and the best Form, which together with the high final odds make this an appropriate wager. The chosen horse, No. 4, won paying $26.80. The results were 4, 7, 3. Note that the place horse had the best Friction. The $1 Exacta paid $67.60. Results: 4, 7, 3 Winner paid $26.80Good Friction, (Route & Turf) and best Form. Great final odds. Placer Best Friction (Route & Turf) $1 Exacta paid $67.60 Race 9 RACE No. 9Jul 31 2004 DMR6f/D S/49000/923 year olds and up. Fillies & Mares only.  PgNo/ML/Post/NameOL BTBDS BPL RTRDS RPL RES RFRecRslt RecClsDTLR FM:TOT/WO/RCPL’S  5/6.00/4DELI 3.6571.1 61 71.16 193 2107,4,5\4/11 fMdSpWt/43000 3551/ 35/ 163  6/8.00/5GLAM 3.1171.2 5.51 71.25.5 1 88103 5,8,8\4/10fMdSpWt/49000 328171/ 171/ 01  7/20.00/6BELL 4.2973.2 61 73.26 185 89 2,5,5\4/6fMdSpWt/28000 27989/ 89/ 01  9/8.00/9NANN 5.7372.2 5.5T1 72.25.5T 194 2437,2,2\4/8 fMdSpWt/4300083 444/444/ 02  10/3.00/11KAL 3.8970.0 62 73.99T 184 70 2,4,4\6/8fMdSpWt/45000 3549/ 37/ 124  FIRSTTIME STARTERS  4/Race No9 GREEKT ML: 15.00SF/AP: 5000/n.a.FORM: 44  8/Race No9 DIAMANTML: 5.00SF/AP: 20000/300000FORM: 51  2/Race No9 EVANGELML: 3.50SF/AP: 125000/n.a.FORM: 177  1A/Race No9 SWEETI ML: 8.00SF/AP: 40000/n.a.FORM: 143  11/Race No9 NEWWAYSML: 15.00SF/AP: 6000/n.a.FORM: 138  2B/Race No9 PRINCESML: 3.50SF/AP: 40000/400000FORM: 44  This race provides a good example of the importance of the final odds in helping you make a wagering decision. With so many First Time Starters, you might want to consider skipping the race. But note that horse no. 5 has the best nd Recent Time, and the 2best OddsLIne Odds, AND the final odds were about 161, surely a situation that warrants a wager. The chosen horse won paying $34.60. Results: 5, 10, 6

Note that in this case, where the winning payoff was so high, the best 3 OddsLine horses won. A $1.00 Trifecta Box paid $260.30. 