Relocation March 06

Julio Raffo

Description

Recent Evolution of World Trade: Impact of Relocation and Growth in Emerging countries. Julio Raffo based on. World Trade: The return of the “Old Economy”, ...

Sujets

• Économie
• Economy

Informations

• Publié par: paul.vallen
• Nombre de lectures: 70
• Langue: English

Extrait

Relocation of production and services and its impact on employment in the European context ETUI expert meeting, 6 March 2006, Brussels

Recent Evolution of World Trade: Impact of Relocation and Growth in Emerging countries

Julio Raffo based on World Trade: The return of the “Old Economy”, Luis Miotti and Frédérique Sachwald, forthcoming, March 2006, www.ifri.org

Introduction

Discussion: Consequences of the development of emerging countries on advanced countries.

Point of view : international trade > indicators drawn from the distribution of world exports. – Demand side: development of local markets. Imports of consumer goods and mainly equipment goods. – Supply side: global production and innovation networks. Role of multinationals : vertical fragmentation of value chains. Impact on the specialization of countries.

IFRI / March 2006

Global trade dynamics of sectors relative to world trade growth (1992-2000)

13 1a. 1992-2000 11

9

Pharmaceuticals

7 5 Instruments RTC components 3 Furniture 1 Vehicles bodies  Basic chemicals Automobile Sport Other  Metal -1 chemicals products Clothing Printing Mineral -3 Wood Paper  Textile Other  products  RTC  transport receivers Machines Leather T s -5 oy Fibres Basic metal Fo d od  ts pro uc

-7 Tobacco -9 IFRI / March 2006

RTC transmitters

Electronic comp.

Computers

Electrical app.

Auto. Comp.  Plastic Detergents and perfumes Domestic app. Agrochemicals

Aircraft

Global trade dynamics of sectors relative to world trade growth (2000-2004)

13

11

Pharmaceuticals

RTC components

Vehicles bodies

9 7 Detergents and perfumes 5 Basic metal Instruments Basic chemicals Other  3 transport Metal RTC  Food Auto. Co .  receivers Furniture mp  products  products Other  1 chemicals Agrochemicals Sport Mineral products -1 Clothing Toys Leather Textile Printing -3 Fibres Wood Paper -5

-7 Tobacco -9 IFRI / March 2006

1b. 2000-2004

Domestic app.

Machines Automobile Plastic

Electrical app. Computers

Aircraft RTC transmitters

Electronic comp.

Contribution to the growth of World exports, in %

Germany

China

France

Italy

Japan

South Korea

UK

USA

0

2

IFRI / March 2006

4

6

8

2000-2004 1992-2000

10

12

14

13 12

11

10

9 8

7 6 5 4

3 2

1

Share of countries, in % of world trade

France

Italy

UK

China

Japan

USA

Germany

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

IFRI / March 2006

Dynamics of Chinese exports, 2000-2004

IFRI / March 2006

Dynamics of German exports, 2000-2004

IFRI / March 2006

Dynamics of French exports, 2000-2004

IFRI / March 2006

D

namics of Italian ex

IFRI / March 2006

orts, 2000-2004

Dynamics of NMS exports, 2000-2004

IFRI / March 2006