Aspects géographiques des migrations internes récentes et de la dynamique démographique des minorités ethniques en Grande Bretagne - article ; n°1 ; vol.15, pg 39-75

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Revue européenne de migrations internationales - Année 1999 - Volume 15 - Numéro 1 - Pages 39-75
Aspects géographiques des migrations internes récentes et de la dynamique démographique des minorités ethniques en Grande-Bretagne.
David Owen.
Cet article analyse la mobilité des minorités ethniques à l'intérieur de la Grande Bretagne en relation avec les changements dans la répartition spatiale de la population qui s'est produite dans les années 1980. Ceux qui ont affecté les groupes ethniques entre 1981 et 1991 révèlent le mouvement de désurbanisation de la population blanche et la croissance rapide des groupes ethniques minoritaires dans les villes les plus grandes. Dans les flux, vers les localités plus petites, plus rurales ou plus éloignées, l'émigration de la population blanche l'emporte. La mobilité des groupes ethniques minoritaires s'est orientée sur un « axe d'urbanisation » qui s'étend de Londres à Manchester mais ces groupes ont aussi quitté le centre de Londres pour s'installer dans les banlieues.
Geographical patterns of recent migration and population change for minority ethnic groups within Great Britain.
David Owen.
This paper relates the migration of people from minority ethnic groups within Great Britain to spatial population change during the 1980s. The estimated geographical pattern of population change by ethnic group between 1981 and 1991 is described, demonstrating the continuing counter-urbanisation of white people and the rapid growth of minority ethnic group populations in the larger cities. The shift of population to smaller, more rural and remote places was dominated by the outward migration of white people. Migration patterns for minority ethnic groups were focussed upon the « axis of urbanisation » stretching from London to Manchester, but these ethnic groups were also moving outwards from central London to the surrounding suburbs.
Las minoróas étnicas en Gran Bretaña : aspectos geográficos de sus migraciones internas recientes y de sus dinámicas demográficas.
David Owen.
Este artículo analiza la movilidad de las minorias étnicas dentro de Gran Bretaña en relación con los cambios en lo concerniente a la distribución espacial de la población en la década de los ochenta. Así, los cambios que han afectado a los grupos étnicos entre 1981 y 1991 revelan un movimiento de desurbanización de la población blanca y un rápido crecimiento de los grupos étnicos minoritarios en las ciudades más grandes. En las corrientes migratorias hacia las localidades mas pequeñas, mas rurales, mas lejanas, la población blanca ha dominado. La movilidad de los grupos étnicos minoritarios se ha orientado hacia un « eje de urbanización » que se extiende desde Londres hasta Manchester. Pero estos grupos están también abandonando el centro de Londres para instalarse en los suburbios.
37 pages
Source : Persée ; Ministère de la jeunesse, de l’éducation nationale et de la recherche, Direction de l’enseignement supérieur, Sous-direction des bibliothèques et de la documentation.

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David Owen
Aspects géographiques des migrations internes récentes et de
la dynamique démographique des minorités ethniques en
Grande Bretagne
In: Revue européenne de migrations internationales. Vol. 15 N°1. Migration et ethnicité au Royaume-Uni. pp. 39-75.
Citer ce document / Cite this document :
Owen David. Aspects géographiques des migrations internes récentes et de la dynamique démographique des minorités
ethniques en Grande Bretagne. In: Revue européenne de migrations internationales. Vol. 15 N°1. Migration et ethnicité au
Royaume-Uni. pp. 39-75.
doi : 10.3406/remi.1999.1664
http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/remi_0765-0752_1999_num_15_1_1664Résumé
Aspects géographiques des migrations internes récentes et de la dynamique démographique des
minorités ethniques en Grande-Bretagne.
David Owen.
Cet article analyse la mobilité des minorités ethniques à l'intérieur de la Grande Bretagne en relation
avec les changements dans la répartition spatiale de la population qui s'est produite dans les années
1980. Ceux qui ont affecté les groupes ethniques entre 1981 et 1991 révèlent le mouvement de
désurbanisation de la population blanche et la croissance rapide des groupes ethniques minoritaires
dans les villes les plus grandes. Dans les flux, vers les localités plus petites, plus rurales ou plus
éloignées, l'émigration de la population blanche l'emporte. La mobilité des groupes ethniques
minoritaires s'est orientée sur un « axe d'urbanisation » qui s'étend de Londres à Manchester mais ces
groupes ont aussi quitté le centre de Londres pour s'installer dans les banlieues.
Abstract
Geographical patterns of recent migration and population change for minority ethnic groups within Great
Britain.
David Owen.
This paper relates the migration of people from minority ethnic groups within Great Britain to spatial
population change during the 1980s. The estimated geographical pattern of population change by ethnic
group between 1981 and 1991 is described, demonstrating the continuing counter-urbanisation of white
people and the rapid growth of minority ethnic group populations in the larger cities. The shift of
population to smaller, more rural and remote places was dominated by the outward migration of white
people. Migration patterns for minority ethnic groups were focussed upon the « axis of urbanisation »
stretching from London to Manchester, but these ethnic groups were also moving outwards from central
London to the surrounding suburbs.
Resumen
Las minoróas étnicas en Gran Bretaña : aspectos geográficos de sus migraciones internas recientes y
de sus dinámicas demográficas.
David Owen.
Este artículo analiza la movilidad de las minorias étnicas dentro de Gran Bretaña en relación con los
cambios en lo concerniente a la distribución espacial de la población en la década de los ochenta. Así,
los cambios que han afectado a los grupos étnicos entre 1981 y 1991 revelan un movimiento de
desurbanización de la población blanca y un rápido crecimiento de los grupos étnicos minoritarios en
las ciudades más grandes. En las corrientes migratorias hacia las localidades mas pequeñas, mas
rurales, mas lejanas, la población blanca ha dominado. La movilidad de los grupos étnicos minoritarios
se ha orientado hacia un « eje de urbanización » que se extiende desde Londres hasta Manchester.
Pero estos grupos están también abandonando el centro de Londres para instalarse en los suburbios.Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, 1999 (15) 1 pp. 39-75 39
Geographical patterns of recent migration
and population change for minority
ethnic groups within Great Britain
David OWEN
INTRODUCTION
One of the most dynamic features of population change within Great Britain in
recent decades has been the rapid growth of the number of people from minority ethnic
groups1. While there have been small populations of people originating from beyond
Europe living in Britain for centuries, almost all the growth in these population groups
has occurred from the 1950s onwards (Haskey, 1997). Through the joint influence of
international migration and births in the UK, the minority population had reached over
3 million by 1991, just under half of whom (46,8 per cent) were British-born. The
geographical impact of the growth of this section of the has been highly
uneven. Initial immigration from New Commonwealth countries was into the major
cities, which were economically buoyant until the era of mass unemployment began in
the mid-1970s, and represented a source of demand for labour, especially in lower-
status occupations. Robinson (1993) has shown how the geographical distribution of
different ethnic groups migrating at different periods in time was strongly influenced
by the changing availability of employment and the existence of social and kin
networks. Analysis of the 1991 Census (Rees and Phillips, 1996 ; Owen, 1992) has
revealed that the bulk of the minority ethnic group population has remained
concentrated in the environs of the original foci of settlement, with Greater London and
the West Midlands metropolitan county containing the largest concentrations of
minority ethnic groups.
Centre for Research in Ethnic Relations, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL. e-mail :
D.W.Owen@warwick.ac.uk
The research reported in this paper was supported by two ESRC grants : « Changing spatial
location patterns of ethnic minorities in Great Britain, 1981-91 » (award H507255127) and
R000235344 « Internal Migration Patterns of Minority Ethnic Groups in Great Britain ». Results of
research carried out on behalf of the Department of the Environment is also reported in this paper. 40 David OWEN
As these ethnie groups become longer established within the UK and with the
emergence of second and third generations of British-born children, it might be
expected that people from minority ethnic groups would begin to move away from the
initial centres of concentration. A major problem in identifying such trends is the lack
of data, both on the geographical pattern of population change by ethnic group and on
the migration behaviour of minority ethnic groups. The 1991 Census provides detailed
information on migration patterns by ethnic group during 1990-91, but the only on longer term trends is that available from the ONS Longitudinal Study.
Robinson (1996) has used this source to show that indeed, British-born children of
immigrant parents from minority ethnic groups are more likely than first generation
migrants to live in areas of low minority ethnic group concentrations.
While the growth of new ethnic groups has bolstered the growth of the
national population over the last forty years or so (Coleman [1995] estimated that the
population of England and Wales in 1991 was around 3 million greater than it would
have been in the absence of New Commonwealth immigration), the same period has
witnessed dramatic shifts in the spatial distribution of the population within Britain,
with a general tendency for the population to become less concentrated into larger cities
and to move to smaller cities and towns and rural areas. This « counterurbanisation »
tendency (Champion, 1990) was perhaps at its strongest in the 1970s, since there is
evidence of a return of population growth in the larger cities of Britain during the
1980s. It seems that (at least in England) the rates of population change at different
levels of the urban hierarchy tended to converge during the 1980s, and this tendency
has continued into the 1990s (Atkins et ai, 1996).
This paper explores the relationship between the two phenomena of minority
ethnic group population growth and migration and the changing geographical
distribution of the population, through an analysis of how minority ethnic group
population change has contributed to population change in different types of district.
Census data for 1991 is used to study the pattern of migration by ethnic group, which is
set within the context of population change by ethnic group between 1981 and 1991,
calculated using 1991 Census data and a set of small-area population estimates by
ethnic group for 1981. The estimates of population change and the migration data for
1990-91 are linked with other sources of data on migration and change over
the decade1.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS FOR THE MINORITY ETHNIC
GROUP POPULATION OF GREAT BRITAIN
The growth of the minority ethnic group population of Great Britain to 3,015
million at the time of the 1991 Census was the result of international migration, and the
birth of children to migrants within the UK. This section provides the context for the
1 This term is used to refer This term is used to refer to people with a skin colour other than
white (who are alternatively referred to as ethnic minorities or visible minorities) and mainly
have their origins in the Caribbean. Indian sub-continent or south-east Asia.
REMI 1999(15) 1 pp. 39-75 I
'
Geographical patterns of recent migration 41
Figure 1 : Immigration to the UK by minority ethnic groups
45000
Pakistani
40000 - 1, ,,| Indian
WÊÊÊ Black-Caribbean
35000 -
30000 -
25000 -
20000 -
15000-
10000-
5000
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year of entry
60000 t
['" - Other Other
fy&^j Other - Asian
540000 - ■H Chinese
£2222) Bangladeshi
■H Black-African
40000 -
30000
20000 -
10000-
1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Year of entry
REMI 1999 (15) 1 pp. 39-75 I
i
I
I
42 David OWEN
remainder of the paper by presenting information derived from survey data on
migration and fertility trends by ethnic group.
The bulk of migration of minority ethnic groups into the UK has occurred
since 1950, but there were marked variations in the trend of immigration between
ethnic groups (Fig. 1), as revealed by the dates of entry for individuals surveyed by the
four quarterly Labour Force Surveys taken during 1995. The earliest migrant group
were the Black-Caribbeans (with origins in the West Indies), amongst whom most
migrants entered the UK between 1955 and 1970, with a peak of immigration occurring
in the early 1960s. The Indian ethnic group started to migrate in substantial numbers
during the 1960s, migration peaking in the early 1970s (resulting from the expulsion of
Asians from East Africa). Migration of the third largest ethnic group, the Pakistanis,
started later and continued longer into the 1980s, with a revival in the late 1980s and
1990s. Bangladeshi migration accelerated during the 1970s, and was greatest during
the 1980s, with a similar pattern being followed by Chinese people. The Black- African,
Other- Asian (composed mainly of people originating from South-East Asia) and Other-
Other ethnic groups (a « catch-all » category covering people who could not be easily
classified elsewhere, but including groups such as Iranians, North Africans, Arabs, etc.)
are much more recent migrants. The immigration of Black-Africans (people whose
origins lie in Africa south of the Sahara) built up gradually over several decades and
then accelerated rapidly during the later 1980s and 1990s. Other- Asian and Other-
Other immigration has grown during the late 1980s and 1990s to rival the Black-
African migration stream in magnitude.
Figure 2 : Migration rates by broad ethnic group
1000-
White
Minority
Black
South Asian
Chinese & Other
I I II I I I I I i i i i i i i i i
1940 1950 1960 1970 Year 1980 1990
REMI 1999 (15) 1 pp. 39-75 patterns of recent migration 43 Geographical
The contribution of immigration to the growth of minority ethnic group
populations can be assessed using data from the longitudinal Family and Working
Lives Survey (conducted on behalf of a consortium of central government departments
during 1994-5), which asked each respondent born outside the UK to report the year in
which they came to live in the UK. Rates of migration (number of migrants per 1000
sample members) by ethnic group are presented in Figure 2 for broad ethnic groupings,
since the sample size was too small to yield reliable estimates for the smaller ethnic
groups. The influence of immigration on minority population growth was greatest
during the 1950s, with the peak migration rate occurring in the early 1960s, just prior
to the coming into force of the first Commonwealth Immigration Act in 1962.
Migration rates increased more slowly for South Asian than for Black people, reaching
a maximum in the mid-1960s, thereafter declining more slowly than for Black people. rates for Chinese and Other people were volatile, being extremely high
in the 1950s, thereafter falling, with smaller peaks in the early 1970s and mid 1980s.
The Family and Working Lives Survey contains an event history for each
sample member (documenting changes of family circumstances as well as residential
moves and job changes), which can be used to generate a time-series of birth rates by
ethnic group (Fig. 3). Crude birth rates (births per 1000 population) for white sample
members built up steadily through the 1940s and 1950s to reach a peak in 1964
(the « baby boom echo »), repeated in 1970 (Fig. 3). White fertility rates declined
during the 1970s, and though they increased during the 1980s, they did not return to the
Figure 3 : Birth rates by broad ethnic group
350 -i
White
Black
South Asian
Chinese & Other
1940 1950 1960 Year 1970 1980 1990
REMI 1999 (15) 1 pp. 39-75 44 David OWEN
levels of the 1960s. Birth rates for Black people were two to three times those for white
people in the 1950s and early 1960s, but declined over time before increasing slightly
in the early 1990s. South Asian (the Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnic groups)
fertility rates built up gradually during the 1960s, reaching double the white rate in the
early 1970s and remaining at these levels throughout the rest of the period, with the
high fertility rates of Pakistani and Bangladeshi people counteracting the declining
birth rates of Indian people. The trend of birth rates for the Chinese and Other ethnic
groups is much more volatile, being extremely high (in a small population) in the early
1960s, thereafter falling to a rate comparable with white people, before reaching
another peak around 1980 and thereafter declining.
ESTIMATING ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION CHANGE, 1981-91
The analysis of population change by ethnic group in Great Britain is severely
handicapped by the lack of data classified by prior to the 1991 Census of
Population and the inconsistencies in coverage and classification of the alternative
sources used to provide an indication of the size of the minority ethnic group
population (Haskey, 1997). Previous Censuses estimated the from the number of persons born in the New Commonwealth, or assumed to
have parents born in the New Commonwealth. However, with the continued growth of
the British-born minority population, this was recognised to be an inadequate and
inaccurate way of measuring the minority ethnic group population, and from 1979
onwards, the Labour Force Survey (collected annually, covering around 0,25 per cent
of households in the UK) collected information on the (self-assigned) ethnic group of
each individual surveyed. This source was used to identify trends in minority ethnic
group populations during the 1980s, revealing that the minority population increased
by 28 per cent between 1981 and 1989-91 (OPCS, 1992).
The main drawback of the LFS before it switched to a quarterly basis in
Spring 1992 was that it could not produce reliable sub-national estimates of the
populations of individual ethnic groups, because of the relatively small sample size and
the spatially clustered sampling strategy used, which was abandoned in favour of
simple random sampling (Sly, 1993). Haskey (1991) attempted to overcome this
problem by combining LFS data with 1991 Census data in order to produce sub-
national estimates of the population by ethnic group, but these estimates proved rather
unsatisfactory, since the crude geographical basis of the LFS meant that the minority
populations of cities were underestimated, while those of the surrounding hinterlands
were over-estimated.
The availability of the 1991 Census data has led a number of researchers to
return to devising methods of estimating the ethnic composition of small areas in 1981
in order to make geographically disaggregated estimates of population change by ethnic
group over the decade 1981-91. Rees and Phillips (1996) derived estimates for 1981, by
calculating the ethnic composition of the population by country of birth, and applying
these percentages to 1981 Census data on the population disaggregated by country of
birth. These estimates were summed over all countries of birth to yield estimates of
REMI 1999 (15) 1 pp. 39-75 Geographical patterns of recent migration 45
total population by ethnic group for all local authority districts in Great Britain. The
estimated of an area by ethnic group is calculated from the formula :
nk
= k=l S Cik X Pijk Pij
where P; is the estimated population of ethnic group j in ward i, cik is the
number of people born in country k living in ward i, pik is the proportion of persons
born in country k who are from ethnic group j, in ward i.
Owen and Ratcliffe (1996) created an alternative set of 1981 estimates for the
1991 Census ward geography covering England and Wales, based on a development of
the Rees and Phillips approach. In this method, the first refinement was to adjust the
matrix of probabilities of being from one of the ten Census ethnic groups by country of
birth in order to take into account the Census undercount, using factors derived by the
ESRC Estimating with Confidence Project. The second refinement was to modify the
elements of the matrix pik, in order to take into account changes in the relationship
between country of birth and ethnic group during the 1980s, which meant that the
percentage of persons born in the UK who were not white would have been higher in
1991 than was the case in 1981. Refinement of the matrix is achieved by calculating a
similar matrix for people aged 10 and over in 1991 (using the Sample of Anonymised
Records for the SAR area in which the ward was located). The ratios between each cell
of this matrix for over ten year-olds and that for the population as a whole were
calculated, and applied to Local Base Statistics table 51, adjusted to take Census under-
enumeration into account for each individual ward. The values which resulted from
multiplying the adjusted matrix of probabilities against 1981 Census data on the
population by country of birth were scaled to match the ONS mid-year population
estimates for the district. It did not prove possible to apply this method in Scotland2,
and hence estimates were only produced for England and Wales.
PATTERNS OF POPULATION CHANGE, 1981-91
Overall trends for England and Wales
The estimated overall pattern of change by ethnic group, generated by
aggregating ward population data up for England and Wales as a whole, is
presented in Table 1 . The total (from the mid-year estimate series) increased
by 3 per cent over the decade, with the number of white people increasing at about half
this rate, while the minority ethnic group population increased by just over 30 per cent.
The overall magnitude of population change is broadly consistent with both the Labour
Force Survey and alternative demographic estimates of population change by ethnic
group for Great Britain as a whole made by Owen (1995).
2 Due to difficulties in generating data for 1991 ward boundaries, and the lack of estimates of
the Census undercount at the time at which the research was carried out.
REMI 1999(15) 1 pp. 39-75 46 David OWEN
Table 1 : Estimated change in minority ethnic group populations
for England and Wales, 1981-91
1981 Percent of Ethnic group 1991 Change Percent Percent of
population population change population, population,
1981 1991
White 733,5 47 290,5 48 024,0 1,6 95,3 94,0
Minority ethnic groups 2 343,7 3 075,5 731,7 31,2 4,7 6,0
Black 783,4 926,1 142,7 18,2 1,6 1,8
Black-Caribbean 515,7 520,6 4,9 1,0 1,0 1,0
Black-African 221,2 85,4 0,4 135,9 62,8 0,3
Black-Other 52,4 131,9 184,3 39,8 0,3 0,4
South Asian 1 087,9 1 503,2 38,2 2,2 415,3 2,9
Indian 695,2 858,8 163,6 23,5 1,4 1,7
Pakistani 323,8 476,0 152,2 47,0 0,7 0,9
Bangladeshi 168,4 99,4 144,2 0,1 68,9 0,3
Chinese & Other 472,4 646,2 173.8 36,8 1,0 1,3 120,0 152,4 32,4 27,0 0,2 0,3
Other-Asian 143,5 0,4 200,3 56,8 39,6 0,3
Other-Other 84,6 0,4 208,9 293,5 40,5 0,6
Total 49 634,3 51 099,5 1 465,2 3,0 100,0 100,0
The fastest-growing ethnic groups were the Bangladeshis, Black-Africans and
Pakistanis, all of which increased by more than half over the decade, while Black-
Others, Other-Asians and Other-Others grew by about 40 per cent over the decade. The
slowest growth was recorded by the Black-Caribbean ethnic group, while the Indian
and Chinese ethnic groups grew by about a quarter. The rapid percentage growth of the
Black-Other and Other-Other), ethnic groups largely reflects the increasing number of
Black and Asian people born in the United Kingdom and the of
inter-ethnic group partnerships. Many children of Black-Caribbean parents were
recorded as Black British or may have one white (or other ethnic group) parent, and
both types of people were allocated by the Census Offices to the Black-Other ethnic
group (which also included people with other Black origins, e.g. Black Americans).
Around four-fifths of the Other-Other category had been born in the UK, since in
addition to a number of smaller ethnic groups, people with parents from different
ethnic groups (which were not Black) were allocated to this group (it was therefore
relatively large in seaports with a long history of inter-ethnic marriage, such as
Liverpool and Cardiff).
There are some important differences between these and other estimates of
population change at the level of individual ethnic groups. In these estimates, the
Black-Caribbean ethnic group remains more or less stable in size over the decade,
contrasting with a decline of 14 per cent in the number of West Indians and Guyanese
REMI 1999(15) 1 pp. 39-75