Essays on the measurement of economic expectations [Elektronische Ressource] / vorgelegt von Anna Stangl

Anna Stangl

Informations

• Publié par: ludwig-maximilians-universitat_munchen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2009
• Nombre de lectures: 10
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 1 Mo

Extrait

Essays on the Measurement of
Economic Expectations



Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des Grades Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. publ.)
an der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München


2008


vorgelegt von
Anna Stangl




Referent: Prof. Dr. Joachim Winter
Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Kai Carstensen
Promotionsabschlussberatung 4. Februar 2009 Acknowledgments


First and foremost I would like to thank my thesis supervisor Joachim Winter, who
from the very beginning believed in my ideas and gave me the freedom to pursue the
chosen projects. I am also very grateful for his teachings on econometrics, behavioral
and empirical economics. It repeatedly gave me impetus for my own work.

I am very grateful to Kai Carstensen who agreed to serve as second supervisor on my
thesis committee. I benefited a lot from his comments to my presentations and
papers. I also like to thank Klaus Abberger, who has enabled the realization of my
research and has always taken the time to discuss it. I am indebted to the Ifo Institute
for Economic Research, particularly to Meinhard Knoche and Sabine Dehof, who
have allowed the technical implementation of the VAS experiments in the Ifo
Business Survey and the Ifo World Economic Survey. I also would like to thank Paul
Kremmel for helping me with the English language, as well as for encouraging me to
apply for conferences and publications. Special thanks go to other colleagues at the
Ifo Institute for Economic Research, especially to Dirk Ulbricht, Gabriela Schütz and
to my next room colleague Klaus Wohlrabe, with whom I shared the experience of
writing a thesis and who readily helped out with books and literature
recommendations. My cordial thank goes to Romy Bonitz, who as a close friend
accompanied me during the years with a lot of friendship and humor.

I thank also participants of the research workshop “Empirical Economics”, which
was organized every semester by Joachim Winter, especially I would like to thank
Florian Heiss for his vivid discussion and very useful comments. I also owe
gratitude to the numerous participants of the conferences at which I had the chance to
talk.

A special thank goes to Oscar Claveria Gonzalez. As a close friend, he has not only
been the one who encouraged me to pursue this research, but also believed in and
supported my ideas on the new measurement approach of economic expectations
from the very beginning. I will also treasure the experience of the joint work with
Roy Batchelor, his patience, joyful way of work and the generous readiness to share
his insights.

Most importantly I am indebted to my family, my parents and my brother, Mikhail
Stangl, who encouraged me a lot. I would also like to thank Florian, and his parents
Eva and Gerhard Wolf, for love and care they gave me during the last years. Table of Contents

List of Figures………………………………………………………..………………..………..……i
List of Tables……………………………………………..……………….…………...…..….....…iii
List of Abbrevations………………………………………...………………..………..…………vii


Executive Summary……………………...…………………………....…...…ix


Chapter 1: Reliability of the Visual Analog Scale for the
Measurement of Economic Expectations

1. Introduction and Background ....................................................................................2
2. Literature Review ......................................................................................................5
3. Data............................................................................................................................8
3.1. The Rating Scales ...............................................................................................9
3.1.1. Three-category Scale (3-Cat.) .....................................................................9
3.1.2. Visual Analog Scale (VAS) ..........................................................................9
3.2. Ifo World Economic Survey (WES).................................................................13
4. Reliability Estimation Methods ...............................................................................14
4.1. Parallel-forms reliability...................................................................................14
4.2. Test-retest Reliability........................................................................................15
4.3. Internal Consistency .........................................................................................16
4.4. Inter-rater reliability..........................................................................................17
5. Results......................................................................................................................19
5.1. Parallel-forms Reliability..................................................................................19
5.1.1. Inconsistent Responses to the VAS and the Three-category Scale ............19
5.1.2. Degree of Agreement Between the VAS and the Three-category Scale ...19
5.1.3. Comparison of the VAS and the Three-category Scale Results Over Time20
5.2 Test-retest Reliability of the VAS .....................................................................21
5.2.1. Experimental Settings................................................................................21
5.2.2. The Estimation of the Imprecision Interval of the VAS .............................22
5.2.3. Factors Explaining the Imprec...........................24
5.3. Internal Consistency .........................................................................................26
5.3.1. Pairwise Correlations of the VAS and the Three-category Scale with
other Variables Measuring the Same Theoretical Constructs............................26
5.3.2. Correlation of the Generated Common Factor with the Variable “Present
Economic Situation” Measured by the VAS and the Three-category Scale........27
5.4. Inter-rater Reliability ........................................................................................27
6. Discussion................................................................................................................29
Annex Chapter 1..........................................................................................................32


Chapter 2: Validity of Economic Indicators Derived with the
Visual Analog Scale

1. Introduction and Background ..................................................................................46
2. Data..........................................................................................................................50
2.1. The Business Survey in the German Manufacturing Sector.............................50
2.2. Production Index for the German Manufacturing Sector .................................51
2.3. Survey-based Business Climate Indicators (BCI) ............................................52
2.3.1. Business Climate Indicator (BCI) Based on Three-category Responses .52
2.3.2. Business Climate Indicator Based on the VAS Responses (BCI-VAS) ......53
2.4. Dispersion of Business Expectations and the “Epistemic” Uncertainty...........54
3. Results .....................................................................................................................58
3.1. Predictive Validity: Business Expectations Measured by the VAS and the
Three-category Scale and the Assessment of the Present Business Situation in
Subsequent Surveys .................................................................................................58
3.2. Concurrent Validity of the Indicators Derived with the VAS ..........................62
3.2.1. Business Climate Indicators (BCI and BCI-VAS) and the Economic
Growth in the German Manufacturing Sector.....................................................62
3.2.2. Dispersion of Business Expectations and “Epistemic Uncertainty” and
the Economic Growth in the German Manufacturing Sector..............................62
4. Discussion................................................................................................................65
Annex Chapter 2 ..........................................................................................................68


Chapter 3: Testing the Assumptions of Three-category Based
Business Expectations Using the Visual Analog Scale

1. Introduction and Background ..................................................................................80
2. Data..........................................................................................................................84
3. Statistical Framework ..............................................................................................86
4. Estimation Methods and Results..............................................................................90
4.1. Testing for Normality of Business Expectations ..............................................90
4.2. Testing the Assumptions about the Indifference Thresholds of Three-category
Based Business Expectations...................................................................................91
4.2.1. Symmetrical Properties of the Indifference Thresh