External imbalances as an explanation for growth rate differences across time and space [Elektronische Ressource] : an econometric exploration / vorgelegt von Menbere Workie Tiruneh

Menbere, Workie Tiruneh

Informations

• Publié par: ludwig-maximilians-universitat_munchen
• Publié le: 01 janvier 2004
• Nombre de lectures: 3
• Langue: English
• Poids de l'ouvrage: 2 Mo

Extrait

Inaugural-Dissertation
zur Erlangung des Grades eines Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec.publ.)
an der Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversität München




External Imbalances as an Explanation for Growth
Rate Differences across Time and Space: Rate Differences across Time and Space:
An Econometric Exploration




vorgelegt von

Menbere Workie Tiruneh

Oktober 2003







Referent: Prof. Stephan Klasen, Ph.D.
Korreferent: Prof. Dr. Dalia Marin
Promotionsabschlussberatung: 11. Februar 2004





External Imbalances as an Explanation for Growth
Rate Differences across Time and Space:
An Econometric Exploration



By


Menbere Workie Tiruneh



Submitted to the Department of Economics
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor oeconomiae publicae (Dr. oec. Publ.)

at the

Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich


2003




Thesis Supervisor: Prof. Stephan Klasen, Ph.D.
Thesis Co-Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Dalia Marin
Final Committee Consultation: 11. Februar 2004



IITable of Contents
GENERAL INTRODUCTION........................................................................................ 1
I. GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS TIME AND SPACE: NEW
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR AN OLD DEBATE.................................................... 7
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 9
2. THE SOLOW-SWAN MODEL AND THE CONVERGENCE DEBATE: A THEORETICAL REVIEW
....................................................................................................................................... 11
2.1. The absolute and relative convergence hypotheses ............................................ 13
2.2. Empirical specifications...................................................................................... 18
2.3. Review of previous empirical research ............................................................... 21
2.4. Data description and samples............................................................................. 24
2.5. Results for cross-section regression and discussion........................................... 26
2.6. Conclusion........................................................................................................... 27
3. THE AUGMENTED SOLOW MODEL AND THE CONDITIONAL CONVERGENCE DEBATE:
REVISITING MANKIW, ROMER AND WEIL (1992) ........................................................... 28
3.1. The Textbook Solow Model ................................................................................. 30
3.2. The augmented Solow model and its empirical specification ............................. 31
3.3. Previous empirical studies on conditional convergence..................................... 34
3.4. Data description, results of the regression and discussion................................. 36
3.5. Conclusion and the policy implications .............................................................. 41
Bibliography............................................................................................................... 43
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER I. ............................................................................................... 46
II. AN EMPIRICAL EXPLORATION INTO THE DETERMINANTS OF
EXTERNAL INDEBTEDNESS .................................................................................... 75
1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................... 77
2. WHY INDEBTED COUNTRIES GOT INDEBTED IN THE FIRST PLACE? A THEORETICAL
EXPLANATION................................................................................................................. 79
2.1. What went wrong with the magnitude and structure of developing countries’
external debt? Some stylized facts.............................................................................. 87
I2.2. Why HIPCs become HIPCs? Revisiting Easterly (2002).................................... 90
2.3. A further empirical exploration into the causes of LDCs external indebtedness in
the 1980s and 1990s................................................................................................. 104
3. CONCLUSION AND THE POLICY IMPLICATION OF THIS STUDY .................................... 113
BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 115
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER II............................................................................................. 119
III. FACTORS AFFECTING THE DEBT-REPAYMENT CAPACITY OF
INDEBTED COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION......................... 151
NTRODUCTION1. I ......................................................................................................... 153
2. FACTORS AFFECTING DEBT-REPAYMENT CAPACITY: A THEORETICAL REVIEW......... 155
3. A SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL STUDIES ........................................................ 158
4. ECONOMETRIC SPECIFICATION AND DATA DESCRIPTION ........................................... 160
5. DATA DESCRIPTION AND SAMPLES............................................................................ 163
6. RESULTS OF THE REGRESSION AND DISCUSSION........................................................ 163
7. CONCLUSION AND THE POLICY IMPLICATION OF THIS STUDY .................................... 166
BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 168
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER III. .......................................................................................... 170
IV. DEBT OVERHANG, CAPITAL FLIGHT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A
PANEL DATA APPROACH....................................................................................... 179
1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 181
2. THE EXTERNAL IMBALANCES-GROWTH NEXUS: A THEORETICAL REVIEW .............. 183
2. 1. A formal theoretical model of the debt overhang hypothesis.......................... 186
2.2. Capital flight, external debt and growth ........................................................... 190
2.3. The external imbalances-growth nexus: An extended empirical examination.. 194
2. 4. The Augmented Solow model: Revisiting Hadjimiachael and Ghura (1995).. 196
3. A SUMMARY OF PREVIOUS EMPIRICAL STUDIES........................................................ 201
4. SPECIFICATION OF THE EMPIRICAL MODEL AND DATA DESCRIPTION ......................... 203
4.1. The advantages of a panel data over a simple cross-sectional approach ........ 203
4.2. A Formal specification of the empirical model................................................. 205
5. DATA DESCRIPTION AND SAMPLES............................................................................ 206
II6. REGRESSION RESULTS AND THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF THIS STUDY..................... 208
BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 215
APPENDIX TO CHAPTER IV. .......................................................................................... 220

III List of Tables, Graphs and Figures
Chapter I

List of text tables

3. Economic growth, capital accumulation and population growth (1960-2000)..........................................36

List of text figures

1. Absolute convergence hypothesis .............................................................................................................15
2. Conditional convergence hypothesis .........................................................................................................17
3. Absolute and conditional convergence hypotheses ...................................................................................20
4. Evolving distribution, tending towards bimodal........................................................................................23

List of Appendix tables

A. Tables for cross-section results 1960-2000 (all observations)

1. Definitions of the variables and their sources ...........................................................................................47
2. Descriptive statistics of all observations ...................................................................................................48
3. Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita ...............................................................................................48
4. Regression results ( b -convergence) ........................................................................................................49
5. Variance of real GDP per capita (s -convergence)..................................................................................50
6. Regression results (1960-69).............................................................................